Scoring Chances Update through the All-Star Break

Slava Duris
January 31 2011 06:32PM

Within this post are the scoring chances statistics for each individual Toronto Maple Leaf player while they were on the ice at Even Strength, on the Power Play, and on the Penalty Kill (two-man advantage situations not included), updated at the All-Star break.  My previous scoring chance breakdown was posted back on Nov. 27/10, just a little after the first quarter pole of the 2010-11 season.  Some things remain constant, like the Grabovski line being the top overall unit on the team, but there have been some interesting shifts as well in the statistics.

The definition of a scoring chance, as written by Derek Zona of the Copper & Blue:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a 'chance for' if someone on his team has a chance to score and a 'chance against' if the opposing team has a chance to score."

For those of you who want to learn more about the scoring chances project and advanced statistics in hockey, I highly recommend reading this article: Scoring Chances, Microstats, and Why They Matter

Now, without further ado, let's take a gander at the scoring chance statistics for the Leafs, from games 1-49 (with no data for game #18):

EVEN STRENGTH:

Forward
ES Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
M. MUELLER
30.05
9
6
17.97
11.98
5.99
M. GRABOVSKI
711.37
246
178
20.75
15.01
5.74
C. MACARTHUR
685.05
214
169
18.74
14.80
3.94
N. KULEMIN
667.13
205
170
18.44
15.29
3.15
M. ZIGOMANIS
39.10
10
8
15.35
12.28
3.07
P. KESSEL
759.38
241
243
19.04
19.20
-0.16
K. VERSTEEG
673.10
192
196
17.11
17.47
-0.36
C. ARMSTRONG
734.95
128
140
10.45
11.43
-0.98
N. KADRI
217.82
58
62
15.98
17.08
-1.10
J. CRABB
220.10
70
76
19.08
20.72
-1.64
T. BOZAK
711.67
204
225
17.20
18.97
-1.77
L. CAPUTI
77.78
19
22
14.66
16.97
-2.31
J. MITCHELL
254.65
56
67
13.19
15.79
-2.59
D. BOYCE
172.20
37
54
12.89
18.82
-5.92
F. SJOSTROM
407.83
70
111
10.30
16.33
-6.03
T. BRENT
415.73
65
110
9.38
15.88
-6.49
M. BROWN
203.48
28
52
8.26
15.33
-7.08
C. ORR
224.12
23
65
6.16
17.40
-11.24
C. HANSON
11.70
0
3
0
15.38
-15.38
J. ROSEHILL
27.13
3
12
6.63
26.54
-19.90
Defence
ES Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
K. HOLZER
36.33
9
5
14.86
8.26
6.61
T. KABERLE
852.58
256
233
18.02
16.40
1.62
L. SCHENN
884.52
262
254
17.77
17.23
0.54
F. BEAUCHEMIN
925.53
234
240
15.17
15.56
-0.39
D. PHANEUF
608.45
161
169
15.88
16.67
-0.79
C. GUNNARSSON
437.30
110
133
15.09
18.25
-3.16
B. LEBDA
269.63
64
83
14.24
18.47
-4.23
M. KOMISAREK
580.23
130
172
13.44
17.79
-4.34
K. AULIE
138.03
27
59
11.74
25.65
-13.91
Goalie
ES Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. GIGUERE
1063.82
282
268
15.90
15.12
0.79
J. REIMER
347.22
89
92
15.38
15.90
-0.52
J. GUSTAVSSON
911.35
234
305
15.41
20.08
-4.67
ALL GOALIES 2322.39
605
665 15.63 17.18 -1.55

A few comments...

Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, and Nikolai Kulemin are the only three regular forwards on the team with plus ratings.  Kessel is slightly below zero while playing with career AHLer Joey Crabb (apparently a very "high event" player) on his left wing for the last little while (and Tyler Bozak at centre all year).  Kris Versteeg and Colby Armstrong have improved their numbers a great deal since the first quarter of the season.  Armstrong now has the lowest Chances Against per 60 ES minutes on the team (regulars only), unfortunately he and Versteeg have among the highest GAA during full-strength play among forwards, in part due to the tough assignments they've undertaken throughout the year playing against the other teams' top players.  Fredrik Sjostrom and Tim Brent have also played on the checking line against the heavies and their numbers suffer as a result.  Of course, their role on the team is not necessarily to outdo the opposition but to limit their chances and free up some easier minutes for the scoring lines.

Francois Beauchemin remains the team's top shutdown defender, as he boasts the lowest CA/60 amongst the corps while matching up against top opposition night after night.  However, he and Dion Phaneuf have fallen into minus territory.  Meanwhile, Tomas Kaberle and Luke Schenn have climbed up to lead Leafs' defencemen in chances for and in chance differential.  Mike Komisarek's year has gone from bad to worse as he falls behind Brett Lebda.  He has to really miss playing with Kaberle.

Jonas Gustavsson has had very poor support... I sincerely don't know how much of a hand he's played in that, if you can pin any of it on him, surely he can't be giving up that many rebounds.

POWER-PLAY:

Forward
PP Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
F. SJOSTROM
3.47
3
0
51.92
0
51.92
T. BRENT
3.90
3
0
46.15
0
46.15
K. VERSTEEG
166.48
100
23
36.04
8.29
27.75
N. KULEMIN
127.05
76
8
35.89
3.78
32.11
M. GRABOVSKI
146.50
85
9
34.81
3.69
31.13
C. MACARTHUR
142.47
79
10
33.27
4.21
29.06
N. KADRI
46.67
25
11
32.14
14.14
18.00
P. KESSEL
170.53
91
17
32.02
5.98
26.04
C. ARMSTRONG
20.65
11
1
31.96
2.91
29.06
M. BROWN
3.85
2
0
31.17
0
31.17
C. ORR
1.97
1
0
30.51
0
30.51
L. CAPUTI
10.35
5
3
28.99
17.39
11.59
T. BOZAK
137.57
63
15
27.48
6.54
20.94
J. CRABB
31.08
11
0
21.23
0
21.23
J. MITCHELL
8.72
1
2
6.88
13.77
-6.88
M. ZIGOMANIS
0.52
0
0
0
0
0
D. BOYCE
4.98
0
0
0
0
0
Defence
PP Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
T. KABERLE
208.68
121
20
34.79
5.75
29.04
D. PHANEUF
109.95
55
5
30.01
2.73
27.29
B. LEBDA
36.38
17
6
28.03
9.89
18.14
L. SCHENN
44.88
20
4
26.74
5.35
21.39
F. BEAUCHEMIN
87.65
32
6
21.91
4.11
17.80
C. GUNNARSSON
12.98
3
0
13.86
0
13.86
K. HOLZER
1.78
0
0
0
0
0
M. KOMISAREK
1.90
0
0
0
0
0
Goalie
PP Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. REIMER
37.78
24
0
38.11
0
38.11
J. GUSTAVSSON
120.45
58
16
28.89
7.97
20.92
J. GIGUERE
142.75
67
12
28.16
5.04
23.12
ALL GOALIES 300.98 149 28 29.70 5.58 24.12

 The Leafs, while on the PP, have generated one less chance per 60 minutes this year than they did in 2009-10 and have given up an extra 1.55 short handed chances against.  Versteeg is tops in chances for while on the PP but he's seen a high amount of chances against too, probably an effect of being a forward playing at the point.  Bozak has been awful with the man advantage, every single other forward who has played significant minutes on the PP have CF/60s higher than the team average...

PENALTY-KILL

Forward
PK Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
N. KADRI
0.53
0
0
0
0
0
J. CRABB
0.97
0
0
0
0
0
C. ORR
0.38
0
0
0
0
0
C. HANSON
2.93
0
0
0
0
0
D. BOYCE
6.92
0
2
0
17.35
-17.35
M. BROWN
49.92
2
24
2.40
28.85
-26.44
M. ZIGOMANIS
16.18
0
8
0
29.66
-29.66
T. BOZAK
67.03
12
34
10.74
30.43
-19.69
M. GRABOVSKI
34.58
5
18
8.67
31.23
-22.55
C. ARMSTRONG
55.40
7
29
7.58
31.41
-23.83
P. KESSEL
6.98
3
4
25.78
34.37
-8.59
F. SJOSTROM
75.75
4
49
3.17
38.81
-35.64
T. BRENT
98.67
6
70
3.65
42.57
-38.92
K. VERSTEEG
30.90
1
22
1.94
42.72
-40.78
N. KULEMIN
32.82
6
24
10.97
43.88
-32.91
J. MITCHELL
17.05
1
14
3.52
49.27
-45.75
Defence
PK Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
K. HOLZER
1.18
0
0
0
0
0
B. LEBDA
3.05
0
1
0
19.67
-19.67
T. KABERLE
11.85
2
4
10.13
20.25
-10.13
D. PHANEUF
61.53
8
33
7.80
32.18
-24.38
F. BEAUCHEMIN
127.45
13
74
6.12
34.84
-28.72
C. GUNNARSSON
95.02
6
58
3.79
36.63
-32.84
L. SCHENN
128.33
11
84
5.14
39.27
-34.13
M. KOMISAREK
61.03
4
42
3.93
41.29
-37.36
K. AULIE
14.48
3
14
12.43
58.00
-45.57
Goalie
PK Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. GIGUERE
121.75
20
57
9.86
28.09
-18.23
J. REIMER
42.40
2
30
2.83
42.45
-39.62
J. GUSTAVSSON
87.42
2
67
1.37
45.99
-44.61
ALL GOALIES 251.57 24 154 5.72 36.73 -31.01

On the other hand, Bozak has played a lot more minutes on the penalty-kill since the first quarter of the season and has done a splendid job alongside Colby Armstrong.  That unit has been hanging around the benchmark number of 1 chance against for every 2 minutes and also have been generating chances themselves.  Brent and Sjostrom have brought their averages up but they still rank near the bottom.  The Leafs' PK have been very strong whenever Giguere has been in net; 20 chances for with him in net, and just 4 with Reimer/Gustavsson is unreal, and Giggy has had much better defensive support too of course.

Phaneuf is often taken to task for his at-times risky style of play and his inability to produce points like he used to, but he has done a fine job on the PK since he was acquired from the Calgary Flames.

83f542f31905eb3b33abea749d7a656c
Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
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