The Gods Must be Crazy (Trade Deadline Primer #2)

Lowetide
February 01 2011 06:11PM

I had a trade deadline post ready to go tonight, but Zack Stortini was part of it. Oh well. I'll include him in anyway, as there's a chance he'll be in the organization come the deadline. When it comes to this deadline, the Oilers are extremely likely to do the same thing they did a year ago: flush blue.
 

As we discussed in the first trade deadline primer (found here), the Oilers traded four defensemen while acquiring two one year ago. Let's list the deals again:

  • March 1: D Denis Grebeshkov to Nashville for their 2nd rd pick. Stu MacGregor turned that into Curtis Hamilton.
  • March 2: D Cody Wild to Boston for F Matt Marquardt.
  • March 3: D Lubo Visnovsky to Anaheim for D Ryan Whitney and a 6th rd pick in 2010. MBS turned that selection into Brandon Davidson.
  • March 3: D Steve Staios to Calgary for D Aaron Johnson and 2011 3rd rd pick.

The Oilers dealt Grebeshkov and Staios for picks, Wild for a depth minor leaguer and made an actual hockey trade with Anaheim. One of the things that always surprises me at the deadline is the enormous value veteran defensemen hold. We watch them all season and know their every weakness, but the fact remains that smart hockey men stockpile them every deadline. Why? A couple of reasons: young defensemen can kill you when the games get tight, and defensemen get hurt a lot. Remember when the Oilers dealt for Tarnstrom and Spacek near the deadline 2006? They needed them for the run, and that's for sure.

Nothing more losery than blogging about trades that haven't happened yet, but I think there's a chance Steve Tambellini pulls the trigger on a couple of surprising deals. From what we read this is a deep draft and we also know that the organization has done well by adding bullets for Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor's gun. With that in mind, here's my list (from most to least valuable) and a guess at the return. Feel free to disagree, I'm certainly no expert on the subject of trades.

UNLIKELY TO MOVE

  1. Dustin Penner: If the Oilers are convinced Penner won't sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he's healthy and it isn't beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.  
  2. Ales Hemsky: Because of the injuries, I think 83's value may be a little lower than Penner's this year. It's a good reason to keep him, but the other consideration is that he may have extreme value for a team looking for exactly this player type (and the LA Kings are a candidate). Return: Same as Penner's, perhaps a little less due to injury concerns.

AVAILABLE FOR THE RIGHT RETURN

  1. Ladislav Smid: With the development of both Peckham and Petry, Smid once again finds himself on the outskirts of the top 4D in Edmonton. A team looking for a veteran will like his youth, his wheels and his toughness after the whistle. He's inconsistent, but healthy and at the very least should be a dependable addition to any blueline for years to come. Return: A high 2nd rd pick, say 35-50.
  2. Andrew Cogliano: Speedster has improved his play this season and gained the coach's confidence in several areas. An NHL team looking for some secondary scoring and perhaps an extra hand on the PK might make the investment. Return: Oilers would probably be better off getting a bullet for Stu in return, as they have a plethora of young forwards pushing for playing time.
  3. Ryan Jones: Has a shot at 20 goals and plays with a lot of energy. A team looking for some scoring punch without having to give up a lot for him might see Jones as a solid option. Return: A pick somewhere in the top 100, say late 2nd or early 3rd rd selection.

AVAILABLE

  1. Kurtis Foster: Despite having a poor season in Edmonton, his 5x4 resume is obvious and he's 3-5-8 on a terrible PP in Edmonton. A team looking for an inexpensive option for that position (PP shooter) might see Foster as an attractive option. Return: Because there's another year on the contract, I'll say a mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.
  2. Jim Vandermeer: Laugh all you want, I bet he gets a solid return. Vandermeer is exactly the kind of plodding defender that NHL teams grab at the deadline. Why? He's a free agent, he can sit for weeks without bitching and you can insert him into the lineup at a moment's notice and pretty much know what you'll get. That has value. Return: Identical to the Foster return, mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.

Really, really available

  1. Zack Stortini: Seems ridiculous now, but this is where I slotted him and there's no sense changing it now. I think Stortini might have some value to a team looking for a low event winger with some size who can play a few minutes a night and add some grit. I understand he doesn't belong on the list and may not be an Oiler tomorrow, but suspect he has some value. ST would have shopped him, so there's not likely a lot of interest now. But, things can change in a couple of weeks. Return: A pick in the 130-140 range.
  2. Martin Gerber: Minor leaguer is nice insurance for an NHL team with health or performance issues at the NHL level. Return: A pick in the 170-180 range.
  3. Gilbert BruleHe's falling so quickly I'm not sure he's going to play again this season. Rumors about flu and other ailments remind some of us of the "Raffi Torres is missing" period where no one even bothered to ask about the rugged LW. Return: A late round pick. Seriously.

One more deadline update before Feb 28.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 David S
February 01 2011, 06:12PM
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I'd hate to see Andrew get shipped off. He's really come to the plate by changing his game.

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#2 Jamie B.
February 01 2011, 06:22PM
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The rise and fall of Gilbert Brule makes me glad I'm not in charge of these things. I know a few people thought they should sell high but be honest, how many of us would have crapped a brick if they'd moved Brule last summer and kept Cogliano. A lot of us.

Ugh.

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#3 BUCK75
February 01 2011, 06:23PM
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@David S

Agreed, a team lacking in grit & he has probably 75% of the team's stitches this year. If he keeps playing like this he has a spot, especially if Brule is hurt all the time....

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#4 PaperDesigner
February 01 2011, 06:28PM
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I'd still prefer the Oilers stick it out with Brule. I think there's a player there, and dealing him now, when his value is at its lowest, doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

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#5 boopronger
February 01 2011, 06:41PM
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Would hemsky + the oilers first this year, get weber out of nashville? Assuming contract extension.

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#6 Quicksilver ballet
February 01 2011, 06:46PM
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PaperDesigner wrote:

I'd still prefer the Oilers stick it out with Brule. I think there's a player there, and dealing him now, when his value is at its lowest, doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

How much longer can the Oilers ignore the math on Gilbert. 1.85 million per year for 8 pts and a +/- rating of -7 to date this season. How long should team(s) wait?

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#7 fuck off
February 01 2011, 07:02PM
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Ryan Jones, available?! Those two words shouldn't be in the same sentence! He's been the best surprise and the only winger who can score and hit which is exactly what the Oilers need more of.

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#8 Raine Snow
February 01 2011, 07:04PM
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So who are you replacing these bodies with? Lots going out, but nothing coming in.

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#9 Fisher
February 01 2011, 07:11PM
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Two words, how about a few quick ones Hemmer+Jones=Schenn from LA or if the Math doesn't add up for either GM add Hamilton in and get back Teubert as well.

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#11 They're $hittie
February 01 2011, 07:13PM
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boopronger wrote:

Would hemsky + the oilers first this year, get weber out of nashville? Assuming contract extension.

Unless there is a guarentee on Larsson, Nashville would never consider trading the face of their franchise, especially when he is signed to a good contract, and is their captain, when the team is not known for spending much money.

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#12 Milli
February 01 2011, 07:13PM
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Cogs is a funny one, because how many times have we said he's finally getting it! But if he is, he'd be a good keep!

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#13 oilfan4life
February 01 2011, 07:17PM
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I am ready to see Cogs, Brule, Hemsky (i love him but its time), J.F.J, Stortini, Foster,Struds go. I know that sounds like a major over haul but these are the none factors on this team. They don't play well enough(again hemsky excluded) together or on there on to be legit contributors on a competing team. I love the laughs and personality they bring to the team but it is time start aiming for the win.

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#14 John Chambers
February 01 2011, 07:22PM
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Nothin's more losery than blogging about trades that haven't happened yet? Well I guess I took my loser pills this morning, showered using loser gel, put on my 3-piece losersuit with navy and loser-grey tie, and dreampt up a deal that saw Hemsky and Smid get dealt to the Capitals for Michael Neuvirth and Karl Alzner.

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#15 DSF
February 01 2011, 07:33PM
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Holy cow!

One third of the roster is up for grabs and that doesn't even include Sam Wellwood.

Hope those prospects all pay off.

My most likely to be moved list:

Hemsky Penner Gagner Cogliano Vandermeer

No one else has enough value to be worth moving.

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#16 Hack The Bone
February 01 2011, 07:41PM
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LT, I'm guessing you see Gagner as untouchable? While I wouldn't move him, I think 3.0 would move him if A) the offer was irresistible, and B) Stu thinks RNH and Couturier are both superior to Sam, because we will certainly have a shot at one of them.

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#18 Oilcruzer
February 01 2011, 07:46PM
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I give an A+ for last year's roster moves.

Shea Weber... that's a bold one.

I think the only team that really realizes the value in Jones is the Oil. That's going to be hard to get value for. Rather keep him.

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#19 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2011, 07:48PM
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John Chambers wrote:

Nothin's more losery than blogging about trades that haven't happened yet? Well I guess I took my loser pills this morning, showered using loser gel, put on my 3-piece losersuit with navy and loser-grey tie, and dreampt up a deal that saw Hemsky and Smid get dealt to the Capitals for Michael Neuvirth and Karl Alzner.

Why the crush on Alzner? You mention him a lot.

I always felt he was overrated with the Hitmen, but I haven't seen him play much since.

Wouldn't Carlson be the better target from Washington?

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#20 John Chambers
February 01 2011, 07:56PM
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@TigerUnderGlass

Carlson seems unattainable, no?

Alzner, Teubert, Forbort, Roussel, who can tell the difference. I'm a loser, not a pro scount, remember.

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#21 OilFan
February 01 2011, 08:07PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I think of Gagner as a very good but not untouchable young player. If they're going to draft RNH then I expect they'll deal Gagner but that won't happen until summer.

So you think they will trade Gagner since they are drafting an unproven rookie ? Wouldn't it make more sense to see what this RNH guy can do at the NHL level ? *if they draft him*

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#23 craigero
February 01 2011, 08:28PM
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The Oil should see what they can get for Penner and Hemsky and if it makes sense then make the deal, if not maybe we can resign them. Gagner... offer him up and hopefully we can trick somebody into thinking he is better then he is,if not maybe he can pump some iron next summer and not get pushed off the puck so much. Vandemeer for a late pick sounds like a good idea. Keep Cogs he seems to be playing better lately, give Brule a longer look as we would not get much for him anyway. Give Fraser away or buy him out. St. Jacques drop like yesterday's news paper. Trade the pic we get for Vandermeer and package it with Foster for a bag of pucks.

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#24 The Beaker
February 01 2011, 08:52PM
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What's the point in trading Jones for a late second/early third pick? For that price, just keep him. He's a piece that can be kept moving forward. At some point you have to stop stockpiling picks and start solidifying pieces. Jones works as a piece, we have lots of you talent coming up and theres sure to me more with this draft.

I say they really should be too active in just selling of players at the deadline. They should be VERY active this summer.

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#25 Shane
February 01 2011, 08:55PM
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The Beaker wrote:

What's the point in trading Jones for a late second/early third pick? For that price, just keep him. He's a piece that can be kept moving forward. At some point you have to stop stockpiling picks and start solidifying pieces. Jones works as a piece, we have lots of you talent coming up and theres sure to me more with this draft.

I say they really should be too active in just selling of players at the deadline. They should be VERY active this summer.

I agree Jonesy should be part of the rebuild.

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#26 BarryS
February 01 2011, 09:10PM
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@The Beaker

Of course you assume the players you call junk would be tradeable. It takes two to make a deal and the past says not to many teams/players want to make significant deals with the Oilers at the moment.

To sell up you need someone to want what you want to sell. To buy, you need someone to wants to sell to you at a price you can afford. At the moment, I don't see either.

We have by turns both overvalued and undervalued the assets you want to trade. Most trades at the moment seem to be for draft choices which do not help in the near turn. As for those coming up, they aren't here yet so clearing room is foolish until they prove ready. We still need a full compliement of bodies on the roster until there are actual replacements here.

As for free agents, not many good ones will come here for a couple more years until the team is better.

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#27 The Beaker
February 01 2011, 09:16PM
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@Barry S

1. I'm not sure how I made that assumption. I didnt say anything about trading anyone else, just that trading Jones did not make sense.

2. If that post was actually directed at me, I dont see how what you said disputes anything I said. In fact most of it seems to agree with my point of view.

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#28 john
February 01 2011, 09:19PM
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Jones, Cogliano and Reddox have the makings of exactly what this team will need in two and three years time:

Good PKers and a decent shutdown 3rd line who can score quickly off turnovers. Best part about these guys is none of them are looking like they're going to be more than $2M players at any time in their careers.

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#29 john
February 01 2011, 09:21PM
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This was the rest of my comment that got eaten: $6M for a half-way decent 3rd line is exactly what the Oilers are going to need to have in order to keep their big guns in the top 6 F and top 4 D.

Why wouldn't the Oilers let them develop with the same patience they're showing the other kids?

Trading any of these guys for 2nd and 3rd round picks makes no sense to me for a team that's desperately looking to be competitive next year.

If they're realistically thinking about moving Hemsky, I'd be targeting Goligoski in Pittsburgh, Stafford in Buffalo or Schenn in LA (key pieces of deals, not straight up of course).

If they're even considering moving Penner it better be because he's been clear with management that he won't resign here. He's a fundamental piece of the top 6 of this team and an immensely difficult skill set to replace.

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#30 book¡e
February 01 2011, 09:41PM
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fuck off wrote:

Ryan Jones, available?! Those two words shouldn't be in the same sentence! He's been the best surprise and the only winger who can score and hit which is exactly what the Oilers need more of.

Any player is tradable - selling high is often a good approach.

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#31 book¡e
February 01 2011, 09:44PM
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What about Strudwick? Is it beyond the realm of possibility that some team picks him up to keep the Youngn's out of the bars during a playoff run and just in case every d-man in their system gets mono?

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#32 FastOil
February 01 2011, 10:35PM
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I have pondered why a player with Brule's pedigree and rounded skill set would struggle so much - I hope he is well and wish him the best.

The Oilers don't need more goal scorers or offensive D- they need some depth players that check people into the boards reasonably well and will not let their team-mates get abused.

Jones doesn't hit people, he hits the boards beside them, and other than his fortunate scoring spree can't play defense well or anything else - his skill set is easily replaceable, so trade him if there is a reasonable offer. I do like his hair and his flair however.

We have so many smaller one dimensional forwards that we could trade 4 of them and not miss a beat. The team played as well without Hemsky as with (not that he isn't good) - there is enough talent up front - we are missing good role players and grit.

A lot of players have to move just to make room for the good prospects coming in a year or two, and with how slow deals come it would be smart to make deals now as they come so guys that are going to go at least get a late pick. Waiting too long will mean letting them go for zippo and other GM's knowing Stev-o is jammed up and has no leveragwe in a deal.

The Oilers are too deep in some areas and thin in others, the balance needs to be restored, and when you have a deep talent pool coming up that is the time to make changes with less risk.

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#33 RossCreekNation
February 01 2011, 10:36PM
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Clearly, me picking a "star" for the Oil here at the Nation is akin to the kiss of death. Last year Patty O, this year Brule.

Hmm... maybe next year I'll pick Hall.

;-)

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#34 Wanyes bastard child
February 01 2011, 10:44PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

Clearly, me picking a "star" for the Oil here at the Nation is akin to the kiss of death. Last year Patty O, this year Brule.

Hmm... maybe next year I'll pick Hall.

;-)

(edited) YOU!!!

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#35 boopronger
February 01 2011, 11:14PM
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Oh man Kyle wellwood has got to be the worst comparison for Sam Gagner that I have ever heard.

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#36 esa tikkanen
February 01 2011, 11:20PM
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LT

Why isn't Colin Fraser on the list with Brule and Stortini? At least Brule has high draft pedigree. I am unsure what Fraser brings, and may be worth a 3rd or 4th rounder as a depth forward to a contender given his recent cup.

I really do not understand your dislike for Smid. A late second rounder for a NHL dman who is still not 25 but has played almost five full NHL seasons? A player who is big, mobile, and still improving?? I would suspect we are trading him just as he is starting to become a very good defenceman. Pair him with a puck mover and he seems to play extremely well. There is a very long list of mid second rounders that will never play as many games as Smid has to this point, and he likely has ten years or possibly 1000 games left in which he will continue to improve.

This Smid dislike and Pouliot love seem strangely misguided given your otherwise extremely rational hockey mind.

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#37 Craig1981
February 02 2011, 12:00AM
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If they trade a player from the AHL that needs to clear waivers (Gerber, Giroux, etc) doea he only need to clear two teams (ND and NYI) or the who league? If so i Giroux worth anything?

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#38 Wax Man Riley
February 02 2011, 12:43AM
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I guess we'll see what happens, but on a team thats lacking defense already, why trade Smid? If he "is a dependable addition to any blue line for years to come", then why not keep him?

Shea Weber won't happen. Tambo will wait to see if Gilbert can be the #1-2 guy, and with Whitney here, if his feet get fixed up, he will think good enough. Seriously. He is a wait and see GM. (Having Weber would be sweet though)

I could see Ryan Jones getting traded since a player like him can be signed in free agency. Why not get something? I like Jones, but it could make sense

Edit: Now that I think of it, would I rather have Peckham or Smid at this point? Peckham for sure right? Then Petry as well. No need for Smid.

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#39 Wax Man Riley
February 02 2011, 12:45AM
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Hold on to Brule too. Not because he is small and has a good immune system, but to see if he can have a bounce back year. Trading him at low value doesn't make sense.

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#40 EDM
February 02 2011, 12:48AM
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Brule for a late pick? Really? Ouch. Value Was SO MUCH Higher Last Season.

Smid HAS to go!!!!!

But All In All. I Agree With This Post.

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#41 Wax Man Riley
February 02 2011, 12:48AM
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Out of Penner and Hemsky, I would rather see Hemsky get traded. He is hurt too often. Penner is big and has hands and the ability to dominate a game. He doesn't bring it every night but when he does it is good.

That being said, if Hemmer stays, that is OK with me because I think he can be a playoff wizard. Great for an intense stretch.

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#42 longbottom/P.Biglow
February 02 2011, 01:08AM
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@craigero

What are you a Toronto fan? See what we can get for penner and Hemsky? Offer up Gagner? Vande for a late pick, keep Cogs and Brule, drop Jacques, trade the pick we get for Vande with Foster and buy out Fraser. I am so glad neither one of us works as a G.M.. I know we are rebuilding, but we need a few vets around for the kids. Or are you considering a #1 draft pick for the next five years?

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#43 Aleslav Smidsky
February 02 2011, 01:13AM
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@Lowetide

You are a InDepth Eklund.

Your articles never hold no weight and usually make no sense or have a purpose.

I think the people at the top of the ON pyramid feed you so you'd feed the people this nonsense. They probably text you to put something together on days they have nothing and need trafic. There is no purpose or reason for this article, nor does it offer any insight.

The people in charge should give your articles and space to guest writers or something as such. I'm not trying to hate on you, I'm just being honest. I'm sure you knew not everyone would like that nonsense when you wrote it, so don't let it bother you ego.

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#44 longbottom/P.Biglow
February 02 2011, 01:20AM
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Have you ever read any of his articals besides this one? for information on the Oilers and they players I perfer Lowetides information to anyones besides brownlee's.

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#45 Aleslav Smidsky
February 02 2011, 01:25AM
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@longbottom/P.Biglow

Yes, I have.

Gregor's articles are way better in information and are a better read. The difference between lowetide's writing and that of an average On visitor is that their nonsense if below the BMW ad and lowetide's is above.

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#46 longbottom/P.Biglow
February 02 2011, 01:33AM
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Here is where we agree to disagree. Gregor has an informative show on the radio, as does Stauffer and Millhouse. Just because Lowetide isn't on the radio regularly ( I have heard him on both Gregor's and Stauffers shows as a guest) doesn't mean his opinion isn't respected by many people including the above named performers.

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#47 Aleslav Smidsky
February 02 2011, 01:36AM
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@longbottom/P.Biglow

I didn't it say his opinion gets no respect, I'm sure it does from some. I was stating my opinion.

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#48 Buchie's Heroes
February 02 2011, 01:41AM
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Nice post LT - amazing how Nabby, Strudwick, Fraser, and MacIntyre have landed in the unmovable pile, just shows how little talent is on this team right now. I think your return projections are all spot on, especially on how veteran D-Men are always tempting for playoff-pushing GMs. Thus, I hope Tambo can find some inexperienced GM willing to overspend for insurance (Gillis, Nieuwendyk, Gauthier - I'm looking at you) and get MBS some "bullets". IMO Vandermeer, Foster, Jones, and Fraser (if we can) gotta be moved at the deadline. Jones is your obvious sell high option; the others are preventing natural paths for kids to move in. Make it happen ST.

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#49 longbottom/P.Biglow
February 02 2011, 01:46AM
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By stateing that his opinion should be below the BMW sign is first of all showing no respect and commenting on this statement is argueing for people not to respect him. There are a ton of writers I do not respectand do not like their writing. Guess what I show my displeasure by not reading them and not commentting to them. To show a blogger silence is the ultimate disrespect.

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#50 Archaeologuy
February 02 2011, 06:49AM
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The Beaker wrote:

What's the point in trading Jones for a late second/early third pick? For that price, just keep him. He's a piece that can be kept moving forward. At some point you have to stop stockpiling picks and start solidifying pieces. Jones works as a piece, we have lots of you talent coming up and theres sure to me more with this draft.

I say they really should be too active in just selling of players at the deadline. They should be VERY active this summer.

Just keep him? He is a UFA in July. The Oilers have no rights to keep. None. How is he a piece that can be kept moving forward. He is the definition of CANT BE KEPT MOVING FORWARD.

And after another year of being deemed one of the least desireable places to play by the NHLPA, how active do you expect the Oilers to be this summer?

Be better.

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