Trade Rumors Heating Up

Lowetide
February 06 2011 08:01AM

This is Chris Phillips. He's rumored to be heading to the Edmonton Oilers. It is one of many rumors out in the ether that could impact the town team.

Mike Brophy and John Shannon were on Sportsnet last night and suggested one of the current rumors has Dustin Penner heading to Ottawa in a deal for Chris Phillips. Phillips is a UFA, so one imagines that this would be for a signed Phillips, or that it might be part of a bigger deal (perhaps involving a third team).

Chris Phillips? He's making $3.5M and is in fact a free agent at the end of the season. He's a western kid, so the club might feel they could sign him and Phillips certainly has the reputation for being an effective shutdown player. He would have spent a lot of time mentoring young Sens blue, so that would be good news for kids like Jeff Petry.

Question: Is Phillips a good NHL defenseman at this stage of his career? Here's what we know:

  • Phillips plays the toughest opposition Ottawa faces and it isn't close. Source (Desjardins) ishere.
  • Phillips is doing it with mid-level help from the Ottawa roster, which means with very little help at all. The 10-11 Senators are not the 77 Habs.
  • Phillips is a team worst -26 on a team that is currently -48 on the season (at evens). If the club played three pairings evenly at equal strength, his expected minus would be -16. He is playing tougher opponents (as noted above) so the plus minus numbers--while ugly--makes him somewhat innocent (with an explanation).

Other rumors have the Preds hot for Hemsky (Matheson has it here) and the Penguins may come calling with the news that Evgeny Malkin's season is likely over.

My own hope is that the club keeps both Penner and Hemsky. However, I can also see the wisdom in acquiring a veteran, signed defenseman to add to the current group of Whitney and Gibert. Those three men could anchor the blue and help along Peckham and Petry. Ladislav Smid's future may be covered in the Matty article I linked to above.

I've been saying for awhile that this deadline is going to be interesting. Steve Tambellini is open for business at the trade deadline and then in summer, and those appear to be his only windows. With that kind of restriction, he needs to be very aggressive.

Dustin Penner to Ottawa for a signed Chris Phillips qualifies as very aggressive.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Oilcruzer
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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esa tikkanen wrote:

If the preds wd trade blum F for for omarl i make for omark I make that trade yesterdaythat trade yesterday

I've read that 5 times and now I'm convinced you really are Esa Tikkanen.

---

This might be a classic case of the best trade you make is the one you don't make. To win a trade, history shows you have to get the better player back.

So far I'm not impressed with anything other than a young D prospect drafted in 07 to 09 range.

Any talk about an old vet makes no sense - other than perhaps Smyth (yes - seriously) - to give LA cap room.

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#2 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 08:10AM
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Penner for Phillips with nothing else significant from Ottawa would make me jump off a bridge.

I hope both Hemsky and Penner stay. Both could be big pieces of this team when we start making runs at the cup. I sure would love to see something like this in the future.

Hall - ??? - Eberle

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky

MPS - Gagner - Omark

Also I believe it was LeBrun over at ESPN who said that a GM told him Hemsky and Penner were in play, but ST was asking for way too much. We could afford an overpayment for one of those two.

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#3 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 09:07AM
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Penner is better than Spezza. Adding him doesn't do us any favours.

Penner cannot be traded to the Senators. There is no combination of players that makes any sense.

Alex Plante for Phillips is the kind of deal that works.

Even Cogliano for Phillips is an overpay.

Finally, adding a second round pick doesn't make it better. A second round pick isn't worth very much.

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#4 one (cold) canadian
February 06 2011, 09:40AM
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Tootoo would be awsome in Oiler silks!

Watching him pummel Regher and the Sedin sisters would be outstanding!

Whatever happens with his career, I hope he has a handle on his demons and he can lead a happy life.

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#5 Racki
February 06 2011, 10:22AM
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I'm opposed to trading Penner, myself (I think he adds something to the team that no one else here does.. size with skill, plus he's decent 2-way and makes linemates better, even if he does look complacent on some nights to some fans). Hemsky.. well, I'm lukewarm to the idea of trading him. I think if we trade him, it should be for vital pieces of the future. I'm not so sure about Phillips being a big part of this team when we're ready to compete, although I think he's a better d-man than he looks in Ottawa.

I think we need to think grander if we're trading Hemsky. I would think that we could find a d-man of Phillips' caliber in free agency, maybe. Maybe we can catch a GM being greedy now who will give us up another 1st, or perhaps if we package a bit more, we can get a promising young d-man. If not, I wouldn't be in such a rush to move Hemsky or Penner.

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#6 Archaeologuy
February 06 2011, 10:59AM
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Put me down as completely opposed to any oiler deal that sees Penner or Hemsky go out and Phillips come in.

If this is year two of the rebuild then our most valuable assets shouldn't be wasted on potential UFA defenseman over 30. I don't see the benefit of getting older and less skilled right now. Phillips makes sense for a contending club and very little to this one.

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#7 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 08:37AM
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Penner for Phillips is a catastrophe. Penner is infinitely better than Phillips.

Phillips is worth a mid-level prospect at best.

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#8 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 08:47AM
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Matheson says in his article: "I'd ask for a first-round draft pick and Wayne Simmonds,

For Hemsky.

I like Simmonds as much as the next guy, but Hemsky for Simmonds and a magic bean would be worse than the Pronger trade and Smyth trade combined.

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#9 RossCreekNation
February 06 2011, 11:04AM
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What's this Penner for Phillips nonsense? Unless there's more to it, that would be terrible.

Maybe Ladi Smid for Phillips.

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#10 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 03:38PM
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@Captain Obvious

You aren't trading for their pasts. You are trading for their futures

Please explain that to Mr. Steve "We signed a Stanley Cup Winner in Khabby" Tambellini.

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#11 KB
February 06 2011, 10:07PM
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If the Oilers traded Penner for Phillips, I would puke. That would be a horrible trade for Edmonton.

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#12 esa tikkanen
February 06 2011, 08:16AM
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If the preds wd trade blum F for for omarl i make for omark I make that trade yesterdaythat trade yesterday

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#13 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 08:17AM
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http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/4377/weekend-wrap-trade-talk-heats-up-jagr-up-for-nhl-return-heritage-sponsorship-strong

There is the thing I was talking about.

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#14 ken
February 06 2011, 08:56AM
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i would do the Hemsky trade in a heartbeat.he is going to have concussion related problems for the rest of his career. Just say no to trading Penner.Penner is a keeper and should be resigned

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#15 Gerald R. Ford
February 06 2011, 09:13AM
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I would hate that deal as much as I hate how Kristian Huselius turns into a Hall of Famer every time he plays the Oil. That would be a dreadful return, an odd fit, and I can't see him wanting to sign here at his age, for anything less than a ridiculous "Ice Station Zebra" compensatory overpayment.

The thing about Penner and Hemsky is, I don't know if they're as valuable to anyone else as they are to the Oil. So, can we ever really get sufficient returns on those assets? Doubtful. Unless you can find a couple of desperate teams with injury problems to play off of each other at the deadline. The best deal may just be no deal.

That said, at the risk of impeachment, I find myself compelled to ask this: Lowetide, what have you heard about the success of Jordin Tootoo's substance abuse treatment? Because, if he's healthy and focused, I want him as part of any deal for Hemsky. I know he's a dirty, rotten skunk, and not universally liked, but he is also exactly what this team of boy scouts desperately needs. And, he can play. Unlike my beloved SMAC, who appears to not be valued by this coaching staff. I don't want David Backes (or any other tool of his ilk) to even THINK of breathing on Taylor Hall without the possibility of something very nasty happening as a consequence.

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#16 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 10:09AM
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Lowetide wrote:

speeds: I think Pittsburgh can and should make a run, but believe the Oilers want to make a hockey trade for either Penner or Hemsky. By that I mean actual players (in this case a defenseman) coming back as part of the return.

So if it's a stud D prospect plus a pick (as you've described) I don't think that's optimum for what they're trying to do.

I think Tambellini wants a Pronger type deal here (trade and then sign). Phillips isn't the best candidate, but that's how I see it.

Gerald Ford: Always enjoyed your airplane exits. :-) I haven't heard a thing about Tootoo but agree he'd be an interesting addition.

Dallas Dave (reasonable track record on this type of thing) has PIT putting Goligoski on the block to get a high quality winger.

Goligoski is 25 (26 in July), 5'10"

He was one more year at 1.833MM then is an RFA

He is 2nd among PIT D for 5v4 TOI, but 3rd in GFON/60 5v4 with 5.89 (behind Martin and Letang)

To compare Whitney is 6.09GFON/60 5v4 and Foster is 4.91 (top two Oilers by the same metric)

Goligoski is playing 3rd pair minutes 5v5 (behind Martin, Letang, Orpik and Mihalek)

He does lead PIT D with a 5v5 +/-/60 of +1.62/60, but he is playing softest minutes.

He shoots left.

If he shot right, he'd be a better fit.

Not enough for Hemsky, if they threw in their 1st this year and took Foster back it gets closer.

I wouldn't do it.

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#17 OilFan
February 06 2011, 10:50AM
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It's kinda funny people think Matheson has a clue ? He has been all over rumors for the last couple years. Trading in the conference for prospects and picks really. Trading for a UFA dman after this season playing -26 ? How bout Wayne Simmonds a fourth line plug player and a pick for arguable one of our best players ? Yes the Oilers are rebuilding come on.

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#18 Zamboni Driver
February 06 2011, 10:55AM
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Don't know about Phillips, but people really need to give their collective heads a shake in this town.

Other than the kids (who they're obviously not going to move), it is ONLY Penner and Hemsky that have any value whatsoever. And trust me, it ain't as high as the blindfaithers think.

Cogliano? Please. Unless somehow they can get Bob McKenzie to inexplicably go on and on and on about how good he was with his son, he's valueless.

Smid? Good lord.

Plugs like Vandermeer and Strudwick...whatever. Hello 6th round picks.

It's Hemsky and/or Penner or 'stay the course and assess some more'.

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#19 Gerald R. Ford
February 06 2011, 11:06AM
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@Lowetide

It's hard to be Presidentially coordinated when you're partying with Betty Ford every night.

@m_kennedy13 That's good to hear. Thanks.

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#21 Chris.
February 06 2011, 12:41PM
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Ho-Hum. Only 29 hous and 20 minutes until the next scheduled loss.

Is there anything else going on sports wise today?

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#22 Eddie Shore
February 06 2011, 12:53PM
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@Chris.

You have to be the most negative person on here Chris. If you dislike the Oilers so much why do you follow them?

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#23 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 01:27PM
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Dustin Penner is better than Mike Fisher. Why would we trade a better player for a worse player?

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#25 Eddie Shore
February 06 2011, 01:39PM
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@Lowetide

Not sure I would have thought of Phillips at all to be honest. Then again, I'm not sure who I would have had in mind.

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#26 common sense
February 06 2011, 01:40PM
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I don't think Phillips is a short or longterm answer to our defensive personnel. Maybe Rod would like it but why would you want to give up anything significant for a player become UFA next year who is significantly minus. Phillips reminds of Redden. Someone out there may pay big bucks for this guy next season but I hope it isn't Tambo.

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#27 Crash
February 06 2011, 01:40PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Crash: I didn't bring it up, John Brophy and John Shannon did. My point re: walk year is that they're bidding against a bunch of teams looking for a rental.

It's curious because if you're shopping Dustin Penner for a veteran Phillips isn't the first player most of us would think of at the top of the list.

Yes I heard them bring it up too but how does them bringing it up turn into the Oilers are heavily interested?

This is how these rumours get started. It sounds like a load of hogwash to me....Penner for Phillips? I haven't heard it anywhere else. Mostly I hear teams like Montreal, Boston, Washington and San Jose are teams that are interested in Phillips. Let's get serious, unless Phillips has some unknown desire to play close to home there's not a chance he waives his NMC to come here.

I think the masses already hate ST as it is...if he pulled that one I dare to think what it would be like around here.

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#28 Quicksilver ballet
February 06 2011, 02:24PM
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We're better off grabbing Sarich for a third or fourth round dp than losing Penner, so tired of always watching the best player in the deal leaving Edmonton.

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#29 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 02:56PM
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Hemmertime wrote:

Id jump at Hemsky/Penner/1st for Malkin.

Then you aren't qualified to criticize anyone because that would be a horrible trade.

In addition to Malkin not being a top 20 player he is also paid 8.7 M a year.

There aren't words in the English language to describe how bad a trade that would be.

Malkin isn't the player you think he is. He's a minus player on a top team who is scoring .86 pts/game while getting lots of playing time. And that's not even counting the fact that he is about to have major knee reconstructive surgery.

You remember the Conn Smythe winning player. That player was gone even before he blew out his knee.

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#31 Mike Krushelnyski
February 06 2011, 03:21PM
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Captain Obvious wrote:

More fun facts. Hemsky is scoring at the exact same rate as Malkin. He's also a + player on the worst team in the league.

So you have two players who are scoring at the same rate. One player has the best +/- on the team and the other has the worst. That player also happens to be paid almost twice as much and just blew his ACL and MCL.

Obviously Malkin has the better track record but a smart GM wouldn't trade Hemsky for Malkin straight up. That's how bad your trade idea is.

You'd think a guy named "Captain Obvious" would notice that Malkin crushed Hemsky's career best season in his rookie year. Take off your homer glasses for a second. The reason that trade wouldn't happen is because Shero would laugh Tambellini off the phone.

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#32 Sabazzarelli
February 06 2011, 08:06AM
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Don't like this trade although I wouldn't be surprised since this isn't the fist time we've heard Penner's name come up

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#33 OilFan
February 06 2011, 08:07AM
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FIST!!! ( denied ) Not sure if I like the idea of trading our leading scorer ? Phillips isn't bad but can the Oilers afford to lose that much scoring to add a dman that isn't a offensive guy ? Phillips is probably over rated when you look at his career stats

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#34 SumOil
February 06 2011, 08:34AM
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One of the things hurting Phillips is a terrible on ice Sv percentage which explains his +\-. That said, penned is very important to this team. So trading a fwd in his prime fr a d man past it, doesn't make sense. Given his performance in ott, I doubt that there will be many suitors for him in the ufa market.

Hem sky to preds makes sense, perhaps we can get one of their young d like Franson

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#35 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 08:38AM
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Cogliano is the absolutely maximum the Oilers should trade for someone like Phillips.

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#36 jake
February 06 2011, 08:49AM
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Ottawa chasing the Oil for the worst team in Canada/NHL, I wonder if they blow it up over there?

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#37 oilers2k11
February 06 2011, 08:51AM
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Did Chicago, Pittsburgh, or Washington need any old experienced Defencemen to Mentor their younger players to be successfull..I dont think so.

Still, I can see the Logic, but no way Penner for Phillips straight up, maybe something like Penner+Smid for Phillips and this and next years 2nd round picks, or how about Penner+Smid+Cogliano for Spezza+Phillips straight up.

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#38 jake
February 06 2011, 08:57AM
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From Capgeek, Spezza is $7M cap hit until the end of the 2014-15 season. 27yo (28 in June). Get him in his "prime" but would he fit? Says he has a no trade clause...hmmm.

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#39 Dan the Man
February 06 2011, 08:58AM
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Agreed that Penner for Phillips straight up isn't enough, how about Penner for Phillips and a 2nd rounder?

The Oilers need to acquire more picks for Magnificent Stu to work his magic.

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#40 BigE91
February 06 2011, 09:03AM
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Wouldn't Penner garner some considerable interest from a contender looking for a big body in their top 6-9? He's got the experience and one would think a team looking for that final push would give up a top prospect and an everyday player.

While the Oil need a shutdown d-man I don't think they need a guy to mentor their young players on the ice. If they need a guy behind the scenes "helping" the kids resign Strudwick on the cheap for another year.

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#41 speeds
February 06 2011, 09:10AM
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So, what's Hemsky worth in a trade? The Kovalchuk deal was:

to ATL:Berfors, Oduya, Cormier, 2010 1st (~20th), 2010 2nd (~50th)

to NJ: Kovalchuk, Salmela, 2010 2nd (~35th)

Now, I don't expect Hemsky to bring back as many pieces as Kovalchuk, but for the sake of argument he is signed for another year at a cheaper rate than Kovalchuk was at the time of his deal.

If Hemsky goes to a team like PIT, NSH, or LA, I would imagine EDM is looking for a package something like:

Despres and a 1st Ellis and a 1st Forbort and a 1st

Although if they did make a move like Omark for Blum, moving him for a D anyways, I suppose that could change what they'd be looking for in return by trading Hemsky.

LT, I wonder if PIT might be the fit. They've got their D core locked up for awhile, maybe they have an easy time, in their minds, justifying including Despres in a deal given their signed D?

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#42 one (cold) canadian
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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Was it not the Sens who told the entire world what the Oilers had on the table for Heatly?

Seems to me this was the case and no matter what anyone says IMO that hurt our locker room.

Its time for ST to take the Sens to task for this.

Do the deal, but if it doesn't include there first round pick this year then ST is not the man for the job going forward.

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#43 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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@ Gerald R. Ford

Tootoo's recovery is on a very good track. I believe he's skating and could likely return soon (as in this season). The best part about his road to recovery was that he checked himself into the rehab program. That's a good sign for sure.

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#45 DBO
February 06 2011, 09:51AM
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No reason to deal for Phillips when he is a UFA in the summer and he can be had for nothing. If they deal Penner or Hemsky then the minimum that comes back has to be a top prospect/good young current NHLer and a high pick. We need a top flight centre, and a top pairing D. Anything less then filling that need means we should not make a deal.

Target teams who need to either make the playoffs or who have injuries and need NHLers to fill missing spots.

Need to make playoffs (from a money or a fan need):

1. LA 2. Columbus 3. Buffalo 4. Atlanta

Need to make real run and due to injuries or missing pieces may have trouble in the playoffs

1. Chicago 2. Pittsburgh 3. San Jose 4. Washington

Go after those teams and take their top prospects or good young NHLers as long as they fill the future need of top C and top D.

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#47 a lg dubl dubl
February 06 2011, 10:03AM
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wonder if the Pens would give up Orpik or Letang if they wanted Penner or Hemsky

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#48 madjam
February 06 2011, 10:03AM
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Seems plausible both Penner and Hemsky being shopped around seeing as neither has been signed beyond next season . Also sounds as if Oilers new core will be built around small players rather than bigger players , despite what Tam says for public distribution . Tams also seems to think our defence and goaltendingg are more than adequate to contend despite what others think . Can you imagine where Oilers might be this season , if they had a reasonable defence and goaltending ? How can this club so consistently stay within one goal of the opposition with a defence , goaltending , diminutive roster that abysmal on special teams and faceoffs to boot is the question ?

Why are we doing as well as we are considering how bad we should/could be looking like ?

Souray , Brule , Penner ,Hemsky , Cogliano , Jones or Fraser and our third round pick via Flames for Spezza, Phillips , Fisher, Neil / or Kelly and Ottawa's first round choice ?

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#49 DBO
February 06 2011, 10:04AM
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LT: agreed. I like the idea of getting a vet and adding Larsson. Not rushing him woudl be nice, and maybe you can have Larsson come over in a year and not right away. I could handle this top 6 D for the next few years:

Whitney-Petry Peckham-Gilbert Phillips-Larsson

Makes Smid and Foster expendable for sure, and anyone that comes calling should be considered.

Phillips on a decent, not overpaying deal would fit. But no need to get him now, especially since he has a no trade clause and I'm guessing he doesn't want to come here to play out the stretch on the worst team in the league.

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#50 speeds
February 06 2011, 10:08AM
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LT:

What makes you think they want to make a hockey trade for Hemsky or Penner? Just the Phillips rumor?

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