Trade Rumors Heating Up

Lowetide
February 06 2011 08:01AM

This is Chris Phillips. He's rumored to be heading to the Edmonton Oilers. It is one of many rumors out in the ether that could impact the town team.

Mike Brophy and John Shannon were on Sportsnet last night and suggested one of the current rumors has Dustin Penner heading to Ottawa in a deal for Chris Phillips. Phillips is a UFA, so one imagines that this would be for a signed Phillips, or that it might be part of a bigger deal (perhaps involving a third team).

Chris Phillips? He's making $3.5M and is in fact a free agent at the end of the season. He's a western kid, so the club might feel they could sign him and Phillips certainly has the reputation for being an effective shutdown player. He would have spent a lot of time mentoring young Sens blue, so that would be good news for kids like Jeff Petry.

Question: Is Phillips a good NHL defenseman at this stage of his career? Here's what we know:

  • Phillips plays the toughest opposition Ottawa faces and it isn't close. Source (Desjardins) ishere.
  • Phillips is doing it with mid-level help from the Ottawa roster, which means with very little help at all. The 10-11 Senators are not the 77 Habs.
  • Phillips is a team worst -26 on a team that is currently -48 on the season (at evens). If the club played three pairings evenly at equal strength, his expected minus would be -16. He is playing tougher opponents (as noted above) so the plus minus numbers--while ugly--makes him somewhat innocent (with an explanation).

Other rumors have the Preds hot for Hemsky (Matheson has it here) and the Penguins may come calling with the news that Evgeny Malkin's season is likely over.

My own hope is that the club keeps both Penner and Hemsky. However, I can also see the wisdom in acquiring a veteran, signed defenseman to add to the current group of Whitney and Gibert. Those three men could anchor the blue and help along Peckham and Petry. Ladislav Smid's future may be covered in the Matty article I linked to above.

I've been saying for awhile that this deadline is going to be interesting. Steve Tambellini is open for business at the trade deadline and then in summer, and those appear to be his only windows. With that kind of restriction, he needs to be very aggressive.

Dustin Penner to Ottawa for a signed Chris Phillips qualifies as very aggressive.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Sabazzarelli
February 06 2011, 08:06AM
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Don't like this trade although I wouldn't be surprised since this isn't the fist time we've heard Penner's name come up

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#2 OilFan
February 06 2011, 08:07AM
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FIST!!! ( denied ) Not sure if I like the idea of trading our leading scorer ? Phillips isn't bad but can the Oilers afford to lose that much scoring to add a dman that isn't a offensive guy ? Phillips is probably over rated when you look at his career stats

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#3 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 08:10AM
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Penner for Phillips with nothing else significant from Ottawa would make me jump off a bridge.

I hope both Hemsky and Penner stay. Both could be big pieces of this team when we start making runs at the cup. I sure would love to see something like this in the future.

Hall - ??? - Eberle

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky

MPS - Gagner - Omark

Also I believe it was LeBrun over at ESPN who said that a GM told him Hemsky and Penner were in play, but ST was asking for way too much. We could afford an overpayment for one of those two.

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#4 esa tikkanen
February 06 2011, 08:16AM
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If the preds wd trade blum F for for omarl i make for omark I make that trade yesterdaythat trade yesterday

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#5 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 08:17AM
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http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/4377/weekend-wrap-trade-talk-heats-up-jagr-up-for-nhl-return-heritage-sponsorship-strong

There is the thing I was talking about.

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#6 SumOil
February 06 2011, 08:34AM
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One of the things hurting Phillips is a terrible on ice Sv percentage which explains his +\-. That said, penned is very important to this team. So trading a fwd in his prime fr a d man past it, doesn't make sense. Given his performance in ott, I doubt that there will be many suitors for him in the ufa market.

Hem sky to preds makes sense, perhaps we can get one of their young d like Franson

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#7 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 08:37AM
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Penner for Phillips is a catastrophe. Penner is infinitely better than Phillips.

Phillips is worth a mid-level prospect at best.

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#8 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 08:38AM
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Cogliano is the absolutely maximum the Oilers should trade for someone like Phillips.

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#9 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 08:47AM
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Matheson says in his article: "I'd ask for a first-round draft pick and Wayne Simmonds,

For Hemsky.

I like Simmonds as much as the next guy, but Hemsky for Simmonds and a magic bean would be worse than the Pronger trade and Smyth trade combined.

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#10 jake
February 06 2011, 08:49AM
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Ottawa chasing the Oil for the worst team in Canada/NHL, I wonder if they blow it up over there?

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#11 oilers2k11
February 06 2011, 08:51AM
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Did Chicago, Pittsburgh, or Washington need any old experienced Defencemen to Mentor their younger players to be successfull..I dont think so.

Still, I can see the Logic, but no way Penner for Phillips straight up, maybe something like Penner+Smid for Phillips and this and next years 2nd round picks, or how about Penner+Smid+Cogliano for Spezza+Phillips straight up.

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#12 ken
February 06 2011, 08:56AM
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i would do the Hemsky trade in a heartbeat.he is going to have concussion related problems for the rest of his career. Just say no to trading Penner.Penner is a keeper and should be resigned

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#13 jake
February 06 2011, 08:57AM
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From Capgeek, Spezza is $7M cap hit until the end of the 2014-15 season. 27yo (28 in June). Get him in his "prime" but would he fit? Says he has a no trade clause...hmmm.

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#14 Dan the Man
February 06 2011, 08:58AM
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Agreed that Penner for Phillips straight up isn't enough, how about Penner for Phillips and a 2nd rounder?

The Oilers need to acquire more picks for Magnificent Stu to work his magic.

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#15 BigE91
February 06 2011, 09:03AM
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Wouldn't Penner garner some considerable interest from a contender looking for a big body in their top 6-9? He's got the experience and one would think a team looking for that final push would give up a top prospect and an everyday player.

While the Oil need a shutdown d-man I don't think they need a guy to mentor their young players on the ice. If they need a guy behind the scenes "helping" the kids resign Strudwick on the cheap for another year.

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#16 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 09:07AM
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Penner is better than Spezza. Adding him doesn't do us any favours.

Penner cannot be traded to the Senators. There is no combination of players that makes any sense.

Alex Plante for Phillips is the kind of deal that works.

Even Cogliano for Phillips is an overpay.

Finally, adding a second round pick doesn't make it better. A second round pick isn't worth very much.

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#17 speeds
February 06 2011, 09:10AM
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So, what's Hemsky worth in a trade? The Kovalchuk deal was:

to ATL:Berfors, Oduya, Cormier, 2010 1st (~20th), 2010 2nd (~50th)

to NJ: Kovalchuk, Salmela, 2010 2nd (~35th)

Now, I don't expect Hemsky to bring back as many pieces as Kovalchuk, but for the sake of argument he is signed for another year at a cheaper rate than Kovalchuk was at the time of his deal.

If Hemsky goes to a team like PIT, NSH, or LA, I would imagine EDM is looking for a package something like:

Despres and a 1st Ellis and a 1st Forbort and a 1st

Although if they did make a move like Omark for Blum, moving him for a D anyways, I suppose that could change what they'd be looking for in return by trading Hemsky.

LT, I wonder if PIT might be the fit. They've got their D core locked up for awhile, maybe they have an easy time, in their minds, justifying including Despres in a deal given their signed D?

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#18 Gerald R. Ford
February 06 2011, 09:13AM
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I would hate that deal as much as I hate how Kristian Huselius turns into a Hall of Famer every time he plays the Oil. That would be a dreadful return, an odd fit, and I can't see him wanting to sign here at his age, for anything less than a ridiculous "Ice Station Zebra" compensatory overpayment.

The thing about Penner and Hemsky is, I don't know if they're as valuable to anyone else as they are to the Oil. So, can we ever really get sufficient returns on those assets? Doubtful. Unless you can find a couple of desperate teams with injury problems to play off of each other at the deadline. The best deal may just be no deal.

That said, at the risk of impeachment, I find myself compelled to ask this: Lowetide, what have you heard about the success of Jordin Tootoo's substance abuse treatment? Because, if he's healthy and focused, I want him as part of any deal for Hemsky. I know he's a dirty, rotten skunk, and not universally liked, but he is also exactly what this team of boy scouts desperately needs. And, he can play. Unlike my beloved SMAC, who appears to not be valued by this coaching staff. I don't want David Backes (or any other tool of his ilk) to even THINK of breathing on Taylor Hall without the possibility of something very nasty happening as a consequence.

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#19 one (cold) canadian
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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Was it not the Sens who told the entire world what the Oilers had on the table for Heatly?

Seems to me this was the case and no matter what anyone says IMO that hurt our locker room.

Its time for ST to take the Sens to task for this.

Do the deal, but if it doesn't include there first round pick this year then ST is not the man for the job going forward.

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#20 Oilcruzer
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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esa tikkanen wrote:

If the preds wd trade blum F for for omarl i make for omark I make that trade yesterdaythat trade yesterday

I've read that 5 times and now I'm convinced you really are Esa Tikkanen.

---

This might be a classic case of the best trade you make is the one you don't make. To win a trade, history shows you have to get the better player back.

So far I'm not impressed with anything other than a young D prospect drafted in 07 to 09 range.

Any talk about an old vet makes no sense - other than perhaps Smyth (yes - seriously) - to give LA cap room.

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#21 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 09:20AM
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@ Gerald R. Ford

Tootoo's recovery is on a very good track. I believe he's skating and could likely return soon (as in this season). The best part about his road to recovery was that he checked himself into the rehab program. That's a good sign for sure.

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#23 one (cold) canadian
February 06 2011, 09:40AM
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Tootoo would be awsome in Oiler silks!

Watching him pummel Regher and the Sedin sisters would be outstanding!

Whatever happens with his career, I hope he has a handle on his demons and he can lead a happy life.

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#24 DBO
February 06 2011, 09:51AM
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No reason to deal for Phillips when he is a UFA in the summer and he can be had for nothing. If they deal Penner or Hemsky then the minimum that comes back has to be a top prospect/good young current NHLer and a high pick. We need a top flight centre, and a top pairing D. Anything less then filling that need means we should not make a deal.

Target teams who need to either make the playoffs or who have injuries and need NHLers to fill missing spots.

Need to make playoffs (from a money or a fan need):

1. LA 2. Columbus 3. Buffalo 4. Atlanta

Need to make real run and due to injuries or missing pieces may have trouble in the playoffs

1. Chicago 2. Pittsburgh 3. San Jose 4. Washington

Go after those teams and take their top prospects or good young NHLers as long as they fill the future need of top C and top D.

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#26 a lg dubl dubl
February 06 2011, 10:03AM
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wonder if the Pens would give up Orpik or Letang if they wanted Penner or Hemsky

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#27 madjam
February 06 2011, 10:03AM
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Seems plausible both Penner and Hemsky being shopped around seeing as neither has been signed beyond next season . Also sounds as if Oilers new core will be built around small players rather than bigger players , despite what Tam says for public distribution . Tams also seems to think our defence and goaltendingg are more than adequate to contend despite what others think . Can you imagine where Oilers might be this season , if they had a reasonable defence and goaltending ? How can this club so consistently stay within one goal of the opposition with a defence , goaltending , diminutive roster that abysmal on special teams and faceoffs to boot is the question ?

Why are we doing as well as we are considering how bad we should/could be looking like ?

Souray , Brule , Penner ,Hemsky , Cogliano , Jones or Fraser and our third round pick via Flames for Spezza, Phillips , Fisher, Neil / or Kelly and Ottawa's first round choice ?

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#28 DBO
February 06 2011, 10:04AM
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LT: agreed. I like the idea of getting a vet and adding Larsson. Not rushing him woudl be nice, and maybe you can have Larsson come over in a year and not right away. I could handle this top 6 D for the next few years:

Whitney-Petry Peckham-Gilbert Phillips-Larsson

Makes Smid and Foster expendable for sure, and anyone that comes calling should be considered.

Phillips on a decent, not overpaying deal would fit. But no need to get him now, especially since he has a no trade clause and I'm guessing he doesn't want to come here to play out the stretch on the worst team in the league.

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#29 speeds
February 06 2011, 10:08AM
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LT:

What makes you think they want to make a hockey trade for Hemsky or Penner? Just the Phillips rumor?

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#30 :0
February 06 2011, 10:08AM
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Phillips is ottawas vandermeer so no way. Unless we get ottawas first(which i doubt). Even rundblad and cowen dont make that a deal. Ottawas probably not gonna resign phillips anyway: we would be so screwed with this trade.Honestly i see penner a bruin for torontos pick and an overpayed player and prospect

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#31 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 10:09AM
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Lowetide wrote:

speeds: I think Pittsburgh can and should make a run, but believe the Oilers want to make a hockey trade for either Penner or Hemsky. By that I mean actual players (in this case a defenseman) coming back as part of the return.

So if it's a stud D prospect plus a pick (as you've described) I don't think that's optimum for what they're trying to do.

I think Tambellini wants a Pronger type deal here (trade and then sign). Phillips isn't the best candidate, but that's how I see it.

Gerald Ford: Always enjoyed your airplane exits. :-) I haven't heard a thing about Tootoo but agree he'd be an interesting addition.

Dallas Dave (reasonable track record on this type of thing) has PIT putting Goligoski on the block to get a high quality winger.

Goligoski is 25 (26 in July), 5'10"

He was one more year at 1.833MM then is an RFA

He is 2nd among PIT D for 5v4 TOI, but 3rd in GFON/60 5v4 with 5.89 (behind Martin and Letang)

To compare Whitney is 6.09GFON/60 5v4 and Foster is 4.91 (top two Oilers by the same metric)

Goligoski is playing 3rd pair minutes 5v5 (behind Martin, Letang, Orpik and Mihalek)

He does lead PIT D with a 5v5 +/-/60 of +1.62/60, but he is playing softest minutes.

He shoots left.

If he shot right, he'd be a better fit.

Not enough for Hemsky, if they threw in their 1st this year and took Foster back it gets closer.

I wouldn't do it.

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#32 srcain
February 06 2011, 10:13AM
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ST needs to talk with both penner and hemmer and find out if either one of them would even like to resign here when their contracts are up. If they say 'no' or 'maybe', then obviously they need to be traded for a return of some sort. Hopefully if thats the case, it isnt made public so ST can at least try and deal them from a position of strength. Does anyone know if ST has done this yet or intends to?

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#33 Dutchscooter
February 06 2011, 10:20AM
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@jake

Problem with Ottawa is that no one in management is probably going to have a job after April. So does Eugene Melnyk let Murray fire sale the place, then fire his butt??

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#35 Racki
February 06 2011, 10:22AM
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I'm opposed to trading Penner, myself (I think he adds something to the team that no one else here does.. size with skill, plus he's decent 2-way and makes linemates better, even if he does look complacent on some nights to some fans). Hemsky.. well, I'm lukewarm to the idea of trading him. I think if we trade him, it should be for vital pieces of the future. I'm not so sure about Phillips being a big part of this team when we're ready to compete, although I think he's a better d-man than he looks in Ottawa.

I think we need to think grander if we're trading Hemsky. I would think that we could find a d-man of Phillips' caliber in free agency, maybe. Maybe we can catch a GM being greedy now who will give us up another 1st, or perhaps if we package a bit more, we can get a promising young d-man. If not, I wouldn't be in such a rush to move Hemsky or Penner.

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#36 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 10:23AM
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@ srcain

If we knew that ST had done that or intended to then it would be public. That would mean he didn't do what we wanted him to. Lose lose for him, we either A. Assume he's being useless and not asking if his players plan to stay, or B. it comes public he talked to them and they both plan on going UFA in 2012, and we kill him for letting it get out. I doubt we see extensions for these two before the summer.

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#37 DBO
February 06 2011, 10:28AM
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LT: is Brayden Schenn enough of a return for Hemsky? Would we be happy with that return, therefore allowing us to draft Larsson. That is still a futures deal, since Schenn can't be expected to b an immediate impact player, however it does fit the 2-3 model we are seemingly following. Reminiscent of the Nieuwendyk for Iginal trade that set the Flames up for the future.

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#38 speeds
February 06 2011, 10:32AM
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Doesn't happen often, but this is one time I'm in disagreement with you LT.

To me, if they are making a "hockey trade", it's more likely we'll see it at the draft/early July when everyone is able to juggle their rosters more freely.

I think Hemsky/Penner are more likely to move at the deadline if EDM is looking for futures in return; those are the types of deals that are made at the deadline, and those are the teams motivated to trade for Penner and Hemsky at this time. I'm not sure I agree with the 20-30 pick range either - that depends who you trade with. There are still, what, 21-23 teams in the playoff race?

Depending who you trade Hemsky/Penner to, that pick could well be in the 8-14 range. And, further to that, because Hemsky/Penner's deal extends into next season, I think it's possible the teams that are borderline playoff contenders are more willing to move their first for Hemsky/Penner than for a traditional rental, because they would also have him for next season.

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#39 godot10
February 06 2011, 10:37AM
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If Phillips to Edmonton and Penner to Ottawa is being talked about, it could also be part of a three-way with LA...

Spezza-->LA Penner +prospects from LA & Edm-->Ott Phillips+prospects from LA & Ott-->Edm

Phillips currently has a no-move till the end of the year. To agree to come to Edmonton, that would suggest that he would have agreed to a new contract with the Oilers,

or why would he agree to be trade to the Oilers rather than insist on a Stanley Cup contender.

It could also be part of a three-way with Nashville.

Fisher-->Nashville Penner+prospects-->Ott Phillips+prospects-->Edm

Involving Edmonton in a three-way between a contender and Ottawa, allows the contender to not trade an actual player off of their roster to Ottawa...they can use Penner from Edmonton as the actual player, and fill the rest of the deal with prospects.

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#40 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 10:37AM
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Goligoski is the kind of guy we should be talking about as the centrepiece of a deal.

Getting an NHL quality defencemen with offensive upside is the starting point of the conversation. Not an aging mediocre defense first player.

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#41 Racki
February 06 2011, 10:39AM
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DBO wrote:

LT: is Brayden Schenn enough of a return for Hemsky? Would we be happy with that return, therefore allowing us to draft Larsson. That is still a futures deal, since Schenn can't be expected to b an immediate impact player, however it does fit the 2-3 model we are seemingly following. Reminiscent of the Nieuwendyk for Iginal trade that set the Flames up for the future.

I think Schenn is definitely good return for Hemsky. We get a centerman with decent size. Depending on where you look, I see him as 6' to 6'2", and 193lbs. He wouldn't make an immediate impact, no, but he'd be on pace with the rest of our players, you would think.. maybe a year behind, but that's fine.

That said, I'm not sure how big of a hurry the Kings are in to give up Schenn, even for Hemsky. But that's where the "immediate impact" is maybe a factor.. the Kings need it, we don't.

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#42 Ducey
February 06 2011, 10:49AM
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Trading Penner/ Hemskyfor a 32 yr old defenseman like Phillips would be a mistake.

Dmen tend to run out of steam in their thirties and Phillips has a lot of miles on the odometer. His plus minus has gotten worse each year for four years.

He is part of the problem in OTT. Within a year he would be part of the problem here.

Thankfully, he would likely refuse to sign with the Oilers before being traded. I expect he'd want to win a Cup.

I'd rather the Oilers trade for a few ready C and D prospects and draft picks.

NAS 1st rounder plus Austin Watson?

Colin Wilson would solve the Oilers 1st line C problem but he is likely worth more than Penner or Hemsky. Maybe Gagner and Penner for Wilson, a 1st and Roussel?

OTT doesn't really have any prospects although they seem to be still after Penner. Maybe (it seems unlikely) they would trade their 1st for him?

Wilson may be untouchable but prospects who are about to graduate are the kind of guys Tambo needs to target.

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#43 OilFan
February 06 2011, 10:50AM
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It's kinda funny people think Matheson has a clue ? He has been all over rumors for the last couple years. Trading in the conference for prospects and picks really. Trading for a UFA dman after this season playing -26 ? How bout Wayne Simmonds a fourth line plug player and a pick for arguable one of our best players ? Yes the Oilers are rebuilding come on.

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#44 Zamboni Driver
February 06 2011, 10:55AM
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Don't know about Phillips, but people really need to give their collective heads a shake in this town.

Other than the kids (who they're obviously not going to move), it is ONLY Penner and Hemsky that have any value whatsoever. And trust me, it ain't as high as the blindfaithers think.

Cogliano? Please. Unless somehow they can get Bob McKenzie to inexplicably go on and on and on about how good he was with his son, he's valueless.

Smid? Good lord.

Plugs like Vandermeer and Strudwick...whatever. Hello 6th round picks.

It's Hemsky and/or Penner or 'stay the course and assess some more'.

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#46 The Other John
February 06 2011, 10:56AM
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Wonder if Matheson's article means that the Oil have finally leaked word to selected MSM media that they are serious about moving one or both of Hemsky and Penner. Hence the "message"that the Oil will move their best assets

If we could get Ryan Johanneson from Columbus that would be my target. We might not even get that good a deal. But we would have the large offensively talented centre moving forward. At this point Columbus must be desperate to make the playoffs and Howson must be desperate to keep his job. To do it, though, we have to move NOW before Columbus is out of playoff fight

Would be fine with Chris Phillips because he would be a good bridge til some of our young kids develop and is a shutdown guy. Would OTT take Smid and Cogs instead of Penner for Phillips

Right now we are the only seller in marketplace. Once other sellers hit market, we lose any premium we might be able to extract now

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#47 Archaeologuy
February 06 2011, 10:59AM
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Put me down as completely opposed to any oiler deal that sees Penner or Hemsky go out and Phillips come in.

If this is year two of the rebuild then our most valuable assets shouldn't be wasted on potential UFA defenseman over 30. I don't see the benefit of getting older and less skilled right now. Phillips makes sense for a contending club and very little to this one.

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#48 RossCreekNation
February 06 2011, 11:04AM
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What's this Penner for Phillips nonsense? Unless there's more to it, that would be terrible.

Maybe Ladi Smid for Phillips.

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#49 Gerald R. Ford
February 06 2011, 11:06AM
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@Lowetide

It's hard to be Presidentially coordinated when you're partying with Betty Ford every night.

@m_kennedy13 That's good to hear. Thanks.

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#50 a lg dubl dubl
February 06 2011, 11:08AM
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Watching the Pens/Caps game, Washington officially have the most annoying siren after a goal EVER

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