Scoring Chances Update, through March 17, 2011

Slava Duris
March 18 2011 01:20PM

Mikhail Grabovski remains the top dog on the Leafs, as he still leads all regulars in scoring chance differential at even strength.  He has also excelled on the PK, too, since earning more icetime there.  His usual wingers, Kulemin and MacArthur, have had their numbers at EV remain steady as well since the last update 23 games ago.

Read on to view the Toronto Maple Leafs' scoring chances by individual players through March 17, 2011.  Scoring chances have been recorded by myself for all but three Leafs' games, two were recorded by Derek Zona and George Ays (one each), and one has gone unrecorded (game #18 vs. New Jersey).

The definition of a scoring chance, as originally written at the Copper & Blue:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a 'chance for' if someone on his team has a chance to score and a 'chance against' if the opposing team has a chance to score."

In my work on the Toronto Maple Leafs, scoring chances are being tracked for the Calgary Flames (by Kent Wilson over at FlamesNation), Edmonton Oilers (Dennis), Florida Panthers (Derek Zona), Montreal Canadiens (Olivier), NY Rangers (George Ays), and Washington Capitals (Neil Greenberg).  Scott Reynolds of the Copper & Blue has also been tracking scoring chances for the Los Angeles Kings since they acquired Dustin Penner from the Oilers.

Now, a look at the Leafs and some quick comments.

EVEN STRENGTH:

Forward
ES Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
M. MUELLER
30.05
9
6
17.97
11.98
5.99
M. GRABOVSKI
1065.15
362
262
20.39
14.76
5.63
N. KULEMIN 979.63
310
246
18.99
15.07
3.92
C. MACARTHUR
1012.32
316
251
18.73
14.88
3.85
M. ZIGOMANIS
39.10
10
8
15.35
12.28
3.07
K. VERSTEEG* 758.45
212
210
16.77
16.61
0.16
P. KESSEL
1117.62
345
352
18.52
18.90
-0.38
C. ARMSTRONG
682.98
177
194
15.55
17.04
-1.49
T. BOZAK
1026.00
288
324
16.84
18.95
-2.11
L. CAPUTI
77.78
19
22
14.66
16.97
-2.31
J. CRABB 432.25
112
129
15.55
17.91
-2.36
J. MITCHELL*
254.65
56
67
13.19
15.79
-2.59
N. KADRI
242.52
59
72
14.60
17.81
-3.22
D. BOYCE
408.92
79
115
11.59
16.87
-5.28
T. BRENT
619.73
108
166
10.46
16.07
-5.62
J. LUPUL
253.75
68
92
16.08
21.75
-5.67
C. HANSON 40.77
3
7
4.42
10.30
-5.89
F. SJOSTROM
566.63
92
151
9.74
15.99
-6.25
M. BROWN
333.12
47
89
8.47
16.03
-7.56
J. ROSEHILL 96.23
15
33
9.35
20.57
-11.22
C. ORR
224.12
23
65
6.16
17.40
-11.24
Defense
ES Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
K. HOLZER
36.33
9
5
14.86
8.26
6.61
T. KABERLE*
1017.13
305
270
17.99
15.93
2.06
L. SCHENN
1326.23
389
373
17.60
16.87
0.72
F. BEAUCHEMIN*
1015.60
257
263
15.18
15.54
-0.35
D. PHANEUF
1072.35
273
296
15.27
16.56
-1.29
C. GUNNARSSON
761.87
189
217
14.88
17.09
-2.21
B. LEBDA
438.25
108
131
14.79
17.93
-3.15
M. KOMISAREK
792.28
174
234
13.18
17.72
-4.54
M. LASHOFF
25.30
3
5
7.11
11.86
-4.74
K. AULIE
475.28
111
161
14.01
20.32
-6.31
Goalie
ES Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. GIGUERE
1330.35
339
332
15.29
14.97
0.32
J. REIMER
1189.15
313
332
15.79
16.75
-0.96
J. GUSTAVSSON
911.35
234
305
15.41
20.08
-4.67
ALL GOALIES
3430.85
886
969
15.49
16.95
-1.46

 So, like I said up top, Grabovski and co. continue to carry this team.  Phil Kessel, on the other hand, has seen his line give up a high amount of scoring chances, and this has only been exacerbated by the arrival of Joffrey Lupul.  Keith Aulie's numbers suffer a lot from his performances during his first call-up to the Leafs.  Since the Beauchemin trade, when he was brought in to fill the void on D, he's been on the ice for 84 Leafs chances for and 102 chances against.  Still a bit shaky but he's very young and has had moments where he's shown that he could develope into a valuable defender down the road.  Supposed shutdown defenceman Mike Komisarek has given up just 0.21 chances less than Brett Lebda per 60 minutes of even strength icetime.

Since Tomas Kaberle was shipped out to Boston, his old partner Luke Schenn is 71-79 at EV.  With Kaberle, he was in the black with 245 chances for and 219 chances against.  On the year, Schenn is 144-154 without old #15 on his left side.

I apologize for the error made in the last update; Armstrong was listed as playing far more EV minutes than he had at that time.  I don't know what wrong there, to be honest, or why I didn't even realize it at the time.

POWER-PLAY:

Forward
PP Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
F. SJOSTROM
4.55
3
0
39.56
0
39.56
K. VERSTEEG*
183.98
105
27
34.24
8.81
25.44
N. KADRI
50.18
27
11
32.28
13.15
19.13
J. LUPUL
69.40
37
3
31.99
2.59
29.39
T. BRENT
56.35
30
6
31.94
6.39
25.55
N. KULEMIN
189.63
100
19
31.64
6.01
25.63
M. GRABOVSKI
223.18
117
21
31.45
5.65
25.11
C. MACARTHUR
210.28
107
19
30.53
5.42
25.11
C. ORR
1.97
1
0
30.51
0
30.51
P. KESSEL
260.18
132
24
30.44
5.53
24.91
L. CAPUTI
10.35
5
3
28.99
17.39
11.59
T. BOZAK
210.00
96
19
27.43
5.43
22.00
C. ARMSTRONG
30.50
12
3
23.61
5.90
17.70
M. BROWN
5.18
2
0
23.15
0
23.15
J. CRABB
37.57
12
0
19.17
0
19.17
J. MITCHELL*
8.72
1
2
6.88
13.77
-6.88
D. BOYCE
13.03
1
1
4.60
4.60
0
C. HANSON
0.63
0
0
0
0
0
M. MUELLER
0.32
0
0
0
0
0
M. ZIGOMANIS
0.52
0
0
0
0
0
Defense
PP Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
T. KABERLE*
240.18
133
23
33.22
5.75
27.48
D. PHANEUF
213.40
103
15
28.96
4.22
24.74
K. AULIE
4.30
2
1
27.91
13.95
13.95
B. LEBDA
75.72
31
11
24.57
8.72
15.85
C. GUNNARSSON 54.32
21
3
23.20
3.31
19.88
L. SCHENN
65.32
24
6
22.05
5.51
16.53
F. BEAUCHEMIN*
95.03
32
8
20.20
5.05
15.15
M. LASHOFF
4.53
1
0
13.24
0
13.24
K. HOLZER
1.78
0
0
0
0
0
M. KOMISAREK
2.07
0
0
0
0
0
Goalie
PP Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. REIMER
162.45
81
14
29.92
5.17
24.75
J. GUSTAVSSON
120.45
58
16
28.89
7.97
20.92
J. GIGUERE
174.93
77
15
26.41
5.14
21.27
ALL GOALIES
457.83
216
45
28.31
5.90
22.41

 Kaberle leads all pointmen in chances for on the PP by a sizeable margin.  Even with Phaneuf producing lately, the Leafs still miss their longtime PP quarterback.  Lupul has added to the Leafs attack on the man advantage, with a little less chances for than the guy he was traded for, but he's also bled much less shorthanded chances against than Versteeg.

PENALTY-KILL:

Forward
PK Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
C. HANSON
2.93
0
0
0
0
0
C. ORR
0.38
0
0
0
0
0
J. LUPUL
0.10
0
0
0
0
0
N. KADRI
0.53
0
0
0
0
0
D. BOYCE
14.67
0
5
0
20.45
-20.45
M. GRABOVSKI
65.23
10
25
9.20
22.99
-13.80
J. CRABB
20.43
3
9
8.81
26.43
-17.62
N. KULEMIN
63.20
11
30
10.44
28.48
-18.04
M. ZIGOMANIS
16.18
0
8
0
29.66
-29.66
M. BROWN
56.52
2
30
2.12
31.85
-29.73
P. KESSEL
8.63
3
5
20.85
34.75
-13.90
F. SJOSTROM
101.83
4
62
2.36
36.53
-34.17
T. BOZAK
130.68
9
88
6.32
36.97
-30.64
C. ARMSTRONG
92.30
8
62
5.20
40.30
-35.10
T. BRENT
130.68
9
88
4.13
40.40
-36.27
K. VERSTEEG*
33.63
1
24
1.78
42.81
-41.03
J. MITCHELL*
17.05
1
14
3.52
49.27
-45.75
C. MACARTHUR
1.13
0
1
0
52.94
-52.94
Defense
PK Min CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
K. HOLZER
1.18
0
0
0
0
0
M. LASHOFF
0.22
0
0
0
0
0
B. LEBDA
3.22
0
1
0
18.65
-18.65
T. KABERLE*
13.10
2
7
9.16
32.06
-22.90
D. PHANEUF
100.98
11
55
6.54
32.68
-26.14
C. GUNNARSSON
144.13
9
81
3.75
33.72
-29.97
F. BEAUCHEMIN*
142.18
13
82
5.49
34.60
-29.12
M. KOMISAREK
97.55
9
60
5.54
36.90
-31.37
L. SCHENN
196.93
15
122
4.57
37.17
-32.60
K. AULIE
57.93
7
44
7.25
45.57
-38.32
Goalie
PK Min
CF
CA
CF/60
CA/60
DIF/60
J. GIGUERE
157.82
24
77
9.12
29.27
-20.15
J. REIMER
132.83
7
81
3.16
36.59
-33.43
J. GUSTAVSSON
87.42
2
67
1.37
45.99
-44.61
ALL GOALIES
378.07
33
225
5.24
35.71
-30.47

I've been loving the work by Grabovski and Kulemin on the PK.  Mike Brown, after coming off the injured list (upper body injury), didn't see a single second the PK for 11 consecutive games and has only been given minutes there again in the last two.  Armstrong and Bozak have tailed off a bit.

83f542f31905eb3b33abea749d7a656c
Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
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