High Quality Scoring Chances, 2010-11 (at Even Strength)

Slava Duris
July 12 2011 05:11PM

 

 

Over the 2010-11 season, I tracked scoring chances for 80 of 82 Toronto Maple Leafs games, with the other two games tracked by other bloggers. I've already posted team statistics for Even Strength, Power Play, and Short Handed situations here at LeafsNation. Now we're going to dig deeper, starting with a look at High Quality Scoring Chances during even play.

For each scoring chance that I recorded during a game, I gave them a grade of A, B, or C. The highest quality chances were given an A rating. HQ chances that fit under my personal criteria include odd man rushes/breakaways, rebounds (almost always), and shots from high percentage areas of the ice by players who were uncovered or met little resistance from the defence.

At even strength, the Leafs produced 270 HQ scoring chances and scored 69 goals for a 25.6 % conversion rate. The opposition scored on 26.6 % of their chances, with 85 goals on 319 chances.

Forward
ES Min
HQF
HQA
HQF/60
HQA/60
DIF/60
M. FRATTIN
13.42
2
0
8.94
0
+8.94
J. COLBORNE
14.23
2
0
8.43
0
+8.43
M. GRABOVSKI
1200.78
103
101
5.15
5.05
+0.10
M. MUELLER
30.05
1
1
2.00
2.00
0
M. ZIGOMANIS
39.10
2
2
3.07
3.07
0
P. KESSEL
1262.05
106
106
5.04
5.04
0
K. VERSTEEG*
739.92
56
58
4.54
4.70
-0.16
T. BOZAK
1159.07
96
101
4.97
5.23
-0.26
N. KULEMIN
1097.40
90
95
4.92
5.19
-0.27
J. CRABB
543.78
35
39
3.86
4.30
-0.44
C. MACARTHUR
1130.25
87
97
4.62
5.15
-0.53
J. MITCHELL*
249.00
16
20
3.86
4.82
-0.96
C. ARMSTRONG
682.98
47
58
4.13
5.10
-0.97
L. CAPUTI
55.72
1
2
1.08
2.15
-1.08
N. KADRI
381.93
21
30
3.30
4.71
-1.41
M. BROWN
404.83
18
28
2.67
4.15
-1.48
C. HANSON
34.35
0
1
0
1.75
-1.75
D. BOYCE
492.22
24
40
2.93
4.88
-1.95
F. SJOSTROM
606.32
18
38
1.78
3.76
-1.98
T. BRENT
684.33
30
53
2.63
4.65
-2.02
J. ROSEHILL
134.95
4
9
1.78
4.00
-2.22
C. ORR
218.87
7
19
1.92
5.21
-3.29
Defense
ES Min HQF
HQA
HQF/60
HQA/60
DIF/60
T. KABERLE*
1000.40
80
68
4.80
4.08
0.72
K. HOLZER
23.92
2
2
5.02
5.02
0
L. SCHENN
1496.65
115
119
4.61
4.77
-0.16
B. LEBDA
446.17
35
39
4.71
5.24
-0.54
D. PHANEUF
1259.07
83
100
3.96
4.77
-0.81
F. BEAUCHEMIN*
998.88
67
82
4.02
4.93
-0.90
C. GUNNARSSON
943.55
61
77
3.88
4.90
-1.02
K. AULIE
672.97
43
61
3.83
5.44
-1.60
M. KOMISAREK
877.95
47
80
3.21
5.47
-2.26
M. LASHOFF
126.43
6
15
2.85
7.12
-4.27
Goalie
ES Min
HQF
HQA
HQF/60
HQA/60
DIF/60
J. REIMER
1667.75
123
131
4.43
4.71
-0.29
J. GIGUERE
1242.12
87
97
4.20
4.69
-0.48
J. GUSTAVSSON
962.40
51
91
3.18
5.67
-2.49
ALL GOALIES
3872.27
261
319
4.04
4.94
-0.90

 

At even strength, the Leafs were outchanced overall, so it's no surprise that they trailed the opposition in terms of high quality scoring chances too.

The scoring line regulars clearly stand out above the rest of the forwards, offensively.  Mikhail Grabovski was the only forward with significant playing time to have seen more HQCs created than given up while on the ice.  Likewise on defence for the departed Tomas Kaberle.

Quality of Competition and ZoneStarts (provided by the terrific BehindtheNet site) should be taken into consideration alongside the scoring chance statistics.

Wilson worked to give favourable icetime conditions to his two offensive lines, instead of going with frequent power vs. power matchups. Grabovski's line and Kessel's line gave up over 5 HQCA per game, while the bottom enders were under (except Colby Armstrong and Colton Orr).

Tim Brent had among the toughest icetime on the team, as he faced tough competition while having the lowest ZoneStart % on the team, but he was able to push his HQCA/60 under the team average.  However, he and the other bottom sixers couldn't create very much in the way of an effective offensive attack.  And to the shock of no one, the two enforcers Rosehill and Orr, had the worst differential of all forwards.

Dion Phaneuf, Francois Beauchemin, and Keith Aulie handled the toughest minutes of all defencemen.  #3 and #22 gave up slightly less high quality chances against than the team average but the rookie Aulie had a tougher go of it.

Pointing out how bad Brett Lebda was is like beating a dead horse at this point, but still, he did horribly despite getting the easiest shifts on the team.  Komisarek had a terrible season as well but the recent additions of John-Michael Liles and Cody Franson should surely mean less minutes available for godawful defenders next year.

Once again, we can see that Jonas Gustavsson had terrible support. The Leafs were porous defensively and their chances of winning the games was pretty much left up to favourable shooting & save percentages (or should we say, luck).  Gus wasn't always equal to this difficult task and took some heat for it.  Here's hoping things turn around for him next season...

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Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
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#1 Kent Wilson
July 12 2011, 09:37PM
Trash it!
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Fantastic stuff. I considered grading chances myself previously, but never had the work ethic to do it.

And again we see just how good Grabs is. Leafs fans better hope they can hang onto him. Dude has arrived.

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