Net Presence Scoring Chances During Even Strength Play

Slava Duris
July 20 2011 08:08PM

I've got yet more scoring chances data to present, this time we will be looking at several types of scoring chances that fall under what I consider "Net Presence Chances".

Over the 2010-11 season, I was able to consistently track special kinds of chances such as breakaways, odd man rushes, shots deflected on goal, rebound chances, and shots through traffic (whens the goalies view of the shot adequately obstructed by either a single attacking player or multiple players in front of the net).  I took the latter three chance types and combined them into a stat I've dubbed "Net Presence" chances, as they result from the offensive players working in close to the net. These are all high-percentage scoring chances; in total the Leafs scored on 25.4 % of these chances, while the opposition scored on 22.5 % of their NP chances.*

* Definitions for the abbreviations can be found at the bottom of the post.

On the left side are Net Presence Chances For, sorted from highest to lowest NPF/60.  Net Presence Chances Against, on the right, is sorted by lowest to highest NPA/60.  Players whose name blocks are in green played less than 200 ES minutes through the 80 games that I counted. 

Just a few notes by me

 - The Maple Leafs were outchanced a bit by the opposition in this category, with a differential of -0.59 per 60 minutes of even strength play.  They slightly outdid their opponents in taking shots through traffic (except after James Reimer became the main man in goal), but they gave up more deflections than they created, and there was a huge difference in rebounding, as the opposition produced 0.54 more rebound chances per 60 than the Leafs.

 - Once again, the MGK line is 1-2-3 among forwards (200+ minutes) on offense, with Grabovski taking the top spot of course.

 - The guy who trails just behind is a bit of a switch though... Tim Brent.  Yes, the checking line centreman who saw only 10.19 chances for and only 2.63 High Quality chances per 60 minutes.  This makes sense, though, as the team's grinders aren't exactly going to score goals by sniping and making fancy dekes.

 - Versteeg, who played with Brent for a chunk of the season, is 5th.

 - While guys like Brent, Fred Sjostrom, Colby Armstrong, and even John Mitchell were above the team average for NPF/60, tt's pretty obvious from these numbers that Phil Kessel's line didn't seek to create offense by grinding it out in front of the opposing goal.  The Leafs saw very few chances through traffic in front during Kessel's shifts; the team average was 0.43, and Kessel had just a scant TrF/60 of 0.19.  He was also below average for rebounds and deflections. There wasn't a single scoring chance that went through screens/traffic during Lupul's shifts!  Tyler Bozak and Lupul have particularly bad ES defensive numbers too, with Lupul holding the worst RbA/60 and DflA/60 averages on the team (the rebound number is particularly cringeworthy).

- Colton Orr has good on-ice TrF/60 and DflF/60 numbers but the Leafs did not pounce on a single rebound during an Orr shift.

 - The pairing of Kaberle-Schenn did relatively great by these numbers, both offensively and defensively.  Kaberle had by far the best RbA/60 among Leaf defenders, as he was +0.13 ahead of Schenn (the next best on the team).  Every other defenceman allowed over 1.00 rebound chances per 60.

 - Lebda and Komisarek were the worst of all D-men for allowing NP chances, with their RbA/60 numbers jumping out.

 - There wasn't a single opposition shot that made it through traffic when Keith "wookie on skates" Aulie was on the ice but he somehow has the worst DflA/60 among blueliners.  Remember, though, that the wookie, er, rookie was thrown out against the opposition's top offensive players so he had a lot to contend with.

 - Reimer had to deal with facing a lot more direction-changing pucks than Gustavsson or Giguere, for some odd reason.

 - And more fuel for Jonas Gustavsson discussions: his RbA/60 number compared to Giguere and Reimer... due to the goalie's inferior ability to prevent rebounds, or was this because of a the team playing shakier defensively in front of the Monster and not clearing as much rebounds?

-----

ABBREVIATIONS FOR STATISTICS IN THE TABLE

TrF/60 = chances through Traffic For per 60 minutes of ES time

RbF/60 = Rebound chances For per 60 minutes of ES time

DflF/60 = chances off Deflections For per 60 minutes of ES time

NPF/60 = Net Presence Chances For per 60 minutes of ES time (previous three stats added together) 

TrA/60 = chances through Traffic Against per 60 minutes of ES time

RbA/60 = Rebound chances Against per 60 minutes of ES time

DflA/60 = chances off Deflections Against per 60 minutes of ES time

NPA/60 = Net Presence Chances Against per 60 minutes of ES time (previous three stats added together)

83f542f31905eb3b33abea749d7a656c
Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
Avatar
#1 draglikepull
July 21 2011, 08:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

The work you do with scoring chances is awesome, and hugely appreciated. Thanks!

Avatar
#2 Danny Gray
July 21 2011, 08:48AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Great stuff Slava. Makes sense to see Lebda and Komi with such terrible numbers. Any reason as to why Aulie's number is what it is?

Avatar
#3 Kent Wilson
July 21 2011, 09:18AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@draglikepull

I don't know how he does it.

Avatar
#4 Danny Gray
July 21 2011, 09:27AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

@Kent Wilson

It's gotta be the helmet.

Avatar
#5 Cam Charron
July 21 2011, 11:52AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

Team Zigo!

Also, your Komisarek data is significantly different from his adjusted Fenwick totals. More on that later...

Comments are closed for this article.