Adjusted Toronto Maple Leaf Fenwick numbers

Cam Charron
July 22 2011 08:51AM

 
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A player's Fenwick number is an advanced +/- statistic that counts all goals, misses and shots fired at the opponent's teams net subtracted by the number of goals, misses and shots fired at your own net when you are on the ice. It corresponds well with scoring chances and is a good indicator of which team owned the bulk of quality shots when the player was on the ice. It is a variant of the corsi statistic, except with the blocked shots going either way excluded.

I downloaded and calculated the data for all 30 NHL teams and 891 players from last season. This post is dedicated to the Leafs numbers.

By copying and pasting some numbers off of Gabe Desjardins' fantastic Behind The Net website and by using knowledge from Vic Ferrari that demonstrates each zone start is worth .6 of a Fenwick event, I seperated the events both "for" and "against" when a team was on the ice. These numbers may have some worth in debating both offensive and defensive superiority. Another number was generated for the number each player showed per game.

These numbers only account for 5-on-5 play.

Forwards

NAME GP MIN/60 GF SF MF GA SA MA OS/60 DS/60 Fen+ Fen- FenA/60 FenA/G
Matt Frattin 1 13.42 0 62.6 17.9 0 22.4 17.9 40.24 17.88 67.08 53.72 13.37 2.99
Marcel Mueller 3 10.02 0 20 16 0 31.9 6 9.98 21.96 43.19 30.71 12.48 2.08
Mikhail Grabovski 81 14.73 3.22 29.5 14 2.41 26.5 13.3 16.14 16.04 46.66 42.27 4.39 1.08
Clarke MacArthur 82 13.97 2.93 27.7 13.5 2.72 27.1 12.3 17.13 17.44 44.32 41.93 2.38 0.55
John Michell 23 11.21 0.93 26.3 10.5 2.56 27 13.5 14.73 19.6 40.65 40.14 0.51 0.10
Mike Zigomanis 8 4.89 1.53 23 4.6 1.53 21.5 12.3 13.75 18.19 31.79 32.67 -0.87 -0.07
Nikolai Kulemin 82 13.35 3.07 27.3 13.5 2.47 27.1 13.9 17.98 17.27 43.44 43.90 -0.45 -0.10
Luca Caputi 7 9.63 0 32 14.2 1.78 32.9 12.5 19.58 17.8 45.13 48.25 -3.12 -0.50
Colby Armstrong 50 13.28 2.8 23.9 10.8 2.89 27.6 12.6 14.91 17.44 39.02 41.57 -2.55 -0.57
Darryl Boyce 46 10.47 3.61 20.7 9.2 2.62 30 11 15.82 20.06 36.05 41.08 -5.02 -0.88
Tim Brent 79 8.81 1.64 21 10.6 2.16 29.1 16 14.48 20.78 37.02 43.48 -6.46 -0.95
Fredrik Sjostrom 66 9.45 1.35 22.7 11.3 1.83 29.7 14.2 15.01 18.37 37.37 43.71 -6.35 -1.00
Nazem Kadri 29 12.94 1.76 27.7 11.3 1.76 28.3 13.4 16.15 14.39 39.70 44.52 -4.81 -1.04
Colton Orr 46 5.02 1.3 15.6 7.8 1.56 26.5 14 12.73 15.33 26.26 40.50 -14.24 -1.19
Joey Crabb 48 11.29 2.55 25.8 10.1 2.77 31.3 13 16.67 18.27 39.41 46.11 -6.70 -1.26
Christian Hanson 6 7.72 0 16.8 14.2 0 20.7 9.1 22.02 11.66 24.78 36.02 -11.23 -1.45
Phil Kessel 82 15.19 2.31 27.8 12.9 3.23 31.1 13.9 17.44 16.52 42.46 48.78 -6.32 -1.60
Tyler Bozak 82 13.98 1.88 26.8 12.4 3.24 30.5 13.2 19 17.27 40.04 47.98 -7.94 -1.85
Mike Brown 50 8.38 2 18.8 10.6 2 28.8 13 13.8 10.74 29.56 45.64 -16.07 -2.24
Joe Colborne 1 14.23 4.22 21.1 8.4 0 29.5 16.9 8.43 8.43 33.72 46.40 -12.68 -3.01
Joffrey Lupul 54 12.53 2.39 23.9 11.3 3.02 33.5 16.7 16.99 12.57 34.94 55.87 -20.93 -4.37
 
(Legend: GP = Games Played MIN/60 = Minutes on-ice per 60 minutes GF = On-ice goals for SF = On-ice saved shots for MF = On-ice missed shots for GA = On-ice goals against SA = On-ice saved shots against MA = On-ice missed shots against OS/60 = Offensive zone starts per 60 minutes DS/60 = Defensive zone starts per 60 minutes Fen+ = Fenwick events for, adjusted Fen- = Fenwick events against, adjusted FenA/60 = Adjusted Fenwick number per 60 minutes FenA/G = Adjusted Fenwick number per game)
 
The obvious takeaway is that Mikhail Grabovski was the best two-way player on the Leafs last season and that has hardly been debated. Joffrey Lupul is at the bottom, but keep in mind his number is based a lot on his play in Anaheim this past season. The remainder of the first line is there, and it's clear that the Leafs will need to find some way to keep a positive shot differential while Kessel is on the ice. There's no use in scoring 30 goals if you allow 40 while on the ice, you may as well pick up a player who doesn't create a lot of chances for shots at either end. That said, I think that the problem was more "Kessel is playing with AHLers for most of the season" than "Kessel is weak defensively".
 
Also, play Mike Zigomanis more. 

Defensemen 

NAME GP MIN/60 GF SF MF GA SA MA OS/60 DS/60 Fen+ Fen- FenA/60 FenA/G
Mike Komisarek 75 11.89 2.29 23.7 11.2 2.89 29.9 12.9 12.58 17.70 40.26 42.62 -2.36 -0.47
Carl Gunnarsson 68 13.86 2.29 23.7 12 2.55 28.1 13.6 15.98 18.4 39.44 42.80 -3.36 -0.78
Luke Schenn 82 18 2.48 26.9 11.8 2.64 28.5 13.6 17.32 17.8 41.47 44.45 -2.98 -0.90
Korbinian Holzer 2 11.96 0 22.6 20.1 2.51 27.6 10 17.56 10.03 38.18 44.63 -6.45 -1.28
Jay Rosehill 26 5.19 1.33 24.5 5.8 4 27.6 16.5 17.34 17.34 31.63 48.10 -16.47 -1.42
Dion Phaneuf 66 18.62 2.34 25.9 12.3 2.49 29.2 14 17.33 17.72 40.77 45.46 -4.68 -1.45
Brett Lebda 41 10.82 1.89 26.4 13.3 3.65 28.7 14.6 16.23 12.71 39.48 49.06 -9.58 -1.73
Matt Lashoff 11 11.49 2.37 27.5 7.1 0.95 35.1 14.7 11.87 15.67 39.25 48.47 -9.22 -1.77
Keith Aulie 40 16.24 2.12 22.5 10.5 2.22 33.6 15 16.72 21.34 37.89 48.05 -10.16 -2.75

Not only was the oft-criticized Mike Komisarek not the worst defenseman on the Leafs, but he had the lowest number of adjusted Fenwick events against and the highest adjusted Fenwick among defenseman. Without a single positive player in the group, you can see why Brian Burke might have changed around the defensemen.


I'm not the worst ever? 

New Leafs

NAME GP MIN/60 GF SF MF GA SA MA OS/60 DS/60 Fen+ Fen- FenA/60 FenA/G
Tim Connolly 68 11.74 2.63 30.1 12.5 2.71 25.9 11.6 20.37 16.01 42.61 42.83 -0.21 -0.04
Cody Franson 80 12.84 2.4 28.5 10.8 1.75 29.2 11.3 16.82 16.59 41.56 42.39 -0.83 -0.18
John Liles 76 16.93 2.7 28.1 11.6 2.89 25.4 13 20.00 15.99 39.99 43.70 -3.70 -1.04
Matt Lombardi 2 11.43 0 18.4 10.5 2.62 39.4 26.2 18.37 20.62 30.25 66.87 -36.62 -6.98

As you can see, all three will jump in and become better-than-average on the team, despite being negative players per game. Tim Connolly's superior defensive numbers might bring Phil Kessel closer to average and keep the play in the opposing end a little bit more. Kessel's offensive skill is apparent, he just needs the help keeping in the zone. Clearly that was not being done with Tyler Bozak last season. On first glance, the defense looks pretty good, and Cody Franson's zone-start ratio is much closer to 50 than you'd expect from an offensive defenseman. He's a player who won't necessarily lose a shot-differential battle by enough of a factor to be a liability. It's a pickup I quite like for the Leafs, and they now have quite a bit of firepower from defense that will translate to a few extra powerplay goals. The defensive numbers need to slightly improve and take a bit of the pressure off of James Reimer, since he's a) unproven [dodges shoe from PPP] and b) without a capable backup.

Matthew Lombardi's numbers really lack the sample size to be really given any merit, but I included him anyway for curious eyes.

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 Thomas Drance
July 22 2011, 08:59AM
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Jeez - Aulie passed the "saw him good test" for me with flying colours, but that adjusted fenwick number is straight up ugly.

I guess it's easy to look good when your goaltender's save percentage is ~.940% (right Dennis Seidenberg?).

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#2 Kent Wilson
July 22 2011, 09:38AM
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Aulie really struggled to start the year if I recall. He was deep, deep underwater. Sounds like improved as the season went on though.

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#3 1967ers
July 22 2011, 10:35AM
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Last season was very much the tale of two teams: the pre-Reimer Leafs and the post-Reimer Leafs. Kessel's numbers show a distinct shift after December in terms of plus/minus. (He was -16 through December, -4 for the rest of the season and a +1 through March and April.)

I'm curious whether the rest of the numbers follow suit. Kessel's line was never a big puck-control line. They scored off the rush. So did their play improve with confidence in their goalie, or did an improved goalie make it less relevant that they spent too much time in their own zone?

A split on Aulie between the first and second callups would also be interesting.

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#4 Pension Plan Puppets
July 22 2011, 11:26AM
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@Thomas Drance

1967ers hit the nail on the head. There were two Leafs teams on the ice last year. A split might be a great follow up post.

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#6 Pension Plan Puppets
July 22 2011, 03:09PM
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Cam Charron wrote:

That data is hard to grab, but I might be able to do it for a few players. Aulie first-and-second callup, Phaneuf pre-and-post Reimer, Kessel pre-and-post Lupul, and Lupul as solely a Leaf.

Any other suggestions? I could tackle it next week.

Those are probably the best. I might add Schenn and Gunnarsson pre- and post-Reimer.

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