Net Presence Scoring Chances, Special Teams 2010-11

Slava Duris
August 30 2011 02:52PM

A few weeks ago, I introduced a category of stats known as "Net Presence Scoring Chances", which consist of rebounds, deflections, and chances through traffic (shots on goal that got through bodies in front without touching anybody enroute to the net).  We previously viewed the regular season results for the 2010-11 Toronto Maple Leafs, today we will check out their work during Special Teams play.

1) Skaters names in bold indicate that the player saw 80 minutes of icetime or more during the PP or PK.

2) Short-Handed Net Presence Chances For are not included here because those scoring chances occured so infrequently (about a handful for the Leafs and their opponents) that there's just really not much point to including them.

POWER-PLAY (5v4, 4v3)

 - Kris Versteeg was leading all forwards in NP chances on the PP up til he was traded to Philly, boasting the most shots through traffic and rebounds among regulars.
 - Bozak and Lupul trailed in this category.  Lupul is last among regulars in NP on the PP despite having overall good chance numbers on the PP.
 - It looks the point tandem of Kaberle-Versteeg was the best at getting shots through on the PP with their NP numbers being fair superior to any of their teammates.  Kaberle is fair ahead of his fellow defenders in terms of chances through traffic on the PP.  For a guy who had to listen to the fans in the Air Canada Centre stands constantly yelling at him to shoot from the point, the Leafs got more shots through traffic with him on the ice than Phaneuf or any other D-man on the team.  All his NP numbers were above the team average. 

PENALTY-KILL (4v5, 3v4)

 

 - To what should be no surprise, the Leafs PK were facing quite a bit more Net Presence chances than the Leafs PP was creating.  Factoring in shooting percentages (26.4 % for the Leafs, 33.3 % for their opposition), the goal differential was -1.7 per 60 minutes (or roughly every 8 games).
- The most glaring difference between the Leafs and their opponents is their ability to get shots through traffic.  The opposition created more than twice as many scoring chances through traffic than did the Leafs (who had only 1.53 chances through traffic per 60 minutes with the man advantage).
 - Mike Komisarek has the best NPA/60 among regular PK defenders but they don't make up for the amount of High Quality and overall PK chances given up during his shifts.  He also has the highest rate of rebounds against among all Leafs' defencemen.
 - Looks like Luke Schenn and Keith Aulie have some work to do at checking opposition players in front of the goal (a tough job when your team is down a skater).
 - Jonas Gustavsson was bombed with rebounds, deflections, and screened shots.  Of all scoring chances he faced while the Leafs were shorthanded, 34.8 % were NP chances. For James Reimer, 25.4 % of his chances against consisted of NP chances while 23.5 % of Giguere's chances against were NP chances.

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Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
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#1 Pension Plan Puppets
August 31 2011, 10:38AM
Trash it!
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The numbers against Toronto certainly jives with a common complaint 67Sound and I have had that the Leafs' teach their defenders to front the forwards on the penalty kill rather than plant them on their posteriors.

Gustavsson's numbers help paint a picture of why, when combined with his tendency to overcorrect, he struggled so mightily last year.

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#2 Steve
August 31 2011, 12:13PM
Trash it!
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I posted a version of this comment over on PPP but was advised to come here for discussion.

Firstly, thanks for all the great work with the scoring chance data. I'm really enjoying reading your series.

As for my question, I was just wondering about how much of the NPA/60 numbers are driven by the forwards? In other words, do the forwards that a defenseman plays with affect his NPA/60 more than the defender himself? Based on the definition of this stat, it seems like it's largely a function of point shots getting through to the net. Since forwards are up high near on the PK, they should have a greater ability to block/prevent point shots.

A brief visual comparison between the NPA/60 and HQA/60 lists seems to indicate that the forward rankings for the two stats compare more favourably to each other than the defensive rankings (maybe explaining Komisarek being at the top of this list). Do you think that is in fact the case?

Sorry for the long post.

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