Leafs' Goalies vs. Scoring Chances, 2010-11

Slava Duris
August 31 2011 08:58PM

I've put together scoring chances data for the Leafs' goaltenders.  This includes their performance against A, B, and C grade chances, against Net Presence type chances, and against opposition Breakaways and Odd Man Rushes in each situation (Even Strength, 1-man Advantage PPs, and PKs while down 1 man).

Once again, this is from the 80 games that I recorded on the season, I do not have the detailed data for the other two games.

Before we take a look at how goalies fared, I will give my criteria for A, B, and C grade scoring chances so you can understand what I'm talking about when I mention them.

Grade A scoring chances (aka High Quality SCs) - Prime chances for a goal.  For those that aren't goals, the puck didn't go in due to either a quality save by the goalie, or the shooter missing the goal.  Odd man rushes, breakaways, rebounds (almost always), and otherwise defensively uncontested (wide open) scoring chances are given this grade.

Grade B chances - A shot taken from within the "slot" and lower part of the circles nearest the goal (the part of the ice within the section highlighted in green in the diagram below) is given this rating if the chance doesn't fall under the "A" criteria.  Deflections are given this grade as well, and I only counted them as chances if they were on goal or hit a post/crossbar (I believe some may argue against this).

Grade C chances - Usually a shot from outside the scoring chance area through screens or traffic in front of the goal, or a shot taken from the higher part of the scoring area (the teal-highlighted section in the diagram).  As with deflections, I only counted a shot through traffic if it was on goal.

SCORING AREA (in the green and teal areas):

 

For posterity, the Leafs' shooting percentages for at 5v5 after 72 games (my apologies, I know this is pretty bush but it's the only data for Leafs shooters I have quickly available to me on this computer, it'll have to do right now) were 25.6 % on A chances, 8.8 % on B chances, and 14.5 % on C chances.

vs. CHANCE CATEGORIES A, B, & C:

Giguere struggled against the tougher quality scoring chances, as his percentage is much inferior to Gustavsson's and Reimer's.  He bore down way, way better against the B-grade chances, though, as did Reimer.  The "Monster" or the "Goose", whatever you call him, didn't fare so good against those B chances and he also had a harder time overall while the Leafs were down a man so he does have some work cut out for him.  Once again, Optimus Reim's numbers look encouraging.

vs. NET PRESENCE CHANCES:

Gustavsson did inordinately well at saving rebounds during Even Strength play!  On the other hand, every 2nd rebound shot against J-S. Giguere was converted into a goal.  Reimer had a bad run against shots through traffic but the numbers are too small here to take any significant meaning from.

vs. BREAKAWAYS & ODD MAN RUSHES:

Another area where Reimer shines.  Hard not to like the kid last season...

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Slava Duris started writing at his blog "Under the Helmet of Slava Duris" in May of 2009. He is currently engaged in a project to count scoring chances for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. Slava chose his moniker in tribute to Vitezslav "Slava" Duris, a defenceman who defected from Czechoslovakia in the early 1980s to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs and was known for wearing one of the goofiest looking helmets in Leafs history.
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#1 JP Nikota
August 31 2011, 11:52PM
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Really cool stuff. Gustavsson's numbers look... well, less bad than his box stats. Giguere easily has the worst numbers of the three.

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#2 VRN
September 01 2011, 06:52AM
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According to this, Gus's bad numbers last season look very situational. While he didn't do well on B chances, he did great on A and C chances, and rebounds. His PK numbers are atrocious.

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#3 Steve Burtch
September 01 2011, 08:56AM
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VRN wrote:

According to this, Gus's bad numbers last season look very situational. While he didn't do well on B chances, he did great on A and C chances, and rebounds. His PK numbers are atrocious.

Gustavsson's specific area of concern are just A and C chances... which strikes me as an odd one.

If he sucks on A chances he just might not be that stellar (which to me screams back up goalie).

As for the C chances... he HAS to cut down on those goals... that's a focus issue for me.

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