Leaf prospect Josh Leivo: Unbe-Leivo-ble

Gus Katsaros
November 01 2012 09:02AM

Nothing special jumps out at you watching Josh Leivo. He doesn’t blow by you with blistering speed or dazzle in one-on-one situations. He doesn’t have a 100 mile-per-hour slap shot and isn’t going to flatten people with huge hits.

What does jump out is improved scoring capacity, a singular aspect exhibited from his pre-Ontario Hockey League days that he’s adapted to his maturing overall game.

Scoring goals.

Year over year from his draft year in 2011, he scored 19 more goals and on a similar pace this season, without OHL scoring leader Michael Sgarbossa.

I should preface this by saying I haven’t seen Leivo live yet this season. Everything has been through video, television.

In 2011-12, Leivo scored 10 goals by his 26th game, scoring 22 in the final 40 games. Below is a breakdown of his weekly scoring starting October 11, 2011 through to the end of the season. (Here is a league wide look at the year over year change).

Date GP G A PTS OHL Rank
10/11/2011 4 2 4 6 74
10/17/2011 6 3 4 7 81
10/24/2011 9 6 5 11 54
10/31/2011 12 7 6 13 58
11/7/2011 14 7 7 14 68
11/14/2011 16 7 7 14 88
11/21/2011 19 8 9 17 85
11/28/2011 21 8 10 18 90
12/5/2011 23 8 13 21 83
12/12/2011 26 10 15 25 71
12/19/2011 29 11 15 26 72
12/26/2011 29 11 15 26 72
1/2/2012 32 14 15 29 73
1/9/2012 35 17 17 34 57
1/16/2012 38 19 19 38 49
1/23/2012 41 21 23 44 33
1/30/2012 44 21 24 45 46
2/6/2012 47 22 25 47 44
2/13/2012 50 22 30 52 38
2/21/2012 54 24 34 58 32
2/27/2012 57 27 37 64 26
3/5/2012 59 28 39 67 26
3/12/2012 62 29 40 69 26
3/19/2012 66 32 41 73 23

He went over a point per game at the end of January and never dipped below again. To illustrate a correlation, Michael Sgarbossa is shown below. Notice the period in December of stagnation leading up to Christmas before they both take off and both see their OHL rank improving. 

JOSH LEIVO

MICHAEL SGARBOSSA

There’s no more Sgarbossa as he’s graduated to the Lake Erie Monsters, but the 6-foot-200 pound has 10 goals in 16 games, 10th overall in the league.

Leivo’s scoring prowess stems from a quick release, a propensity to get into scoring areas and the puck is on and off the blade lightning quick. He has excellent stick preparation with blade on the ice ready to receive a pass and fire off shots in a compact release.

He quickly identifies holes and lanes and gets into soft spots and planting in the slot and net area without the puck, his stick at the ready. A quick and effortless skater, taking only a few strides to get up to a decent top speed. He has quick feet with smooth crossovers and change of pace. He’s also physical and will engage. And yes, he fights.

There’s some periodic dangle at the end of Leivo’s blade, and he’s bold enough to attempt these plays in risky areas. Using varying speeds while attacking makes him less predictable while individualism creeps in with the puck and he over handles it instead of passing it off to a teammate – the anti-Biggs in that regard.

Is likely to coast on momentum when initiating one-on-one moves before injecting small bursts of speed to get around defensemen. Pros will key in on that and limit his space, but he could open lanes by drawing defensemen and then exploiting his quick release.

While he has soft hands, they’re not overly quick or shifty, lacking those mesmerizing individual puck skills, but with Leivo it’s more about his shot and quick release than speed and high-end skill.

He needs to work on his static feet away from the puck, and disconnection from the play at times. Consistent intensity could improve as well, even shift to shift. He wants the puck, to be a difference-maker offensively, yet will slip into the background away from the play when not fully motivated.

Then there’s the character angle. I’ve never spoken to the Wolves winger and couldn’t attest to what Brian Burke describes as ‘character’.

“General manager Brian Burke said the team prioritized character players at the draft.

"We don't always get it right but our big focus is on character," Burke said. "Every team says that, but it's part of our DNA. We're looking for players that are going to get better, that work hard, that are coachable, guys who handle adversity well. We try to identify through our interview and through using our psychologist people with character.

"That's why I think we got kind of a shotgun spread on positions and types of players this year, but I think we found character people. They're your best chance to win. I'm convinced you can not win a championship in this league unless you have character people in the room.”

It’s not easy to pinpoint exactly what will make Leivo a viable NHL player, despite the emerging goal scoring ability at the OHL level. It’s not just one exciting feature about him, but rather the entire package, the quickness, the release, the responsible defense (when he’s actively involved in the play).

The translatable skills are enhanced with some scoring ability, as even a good third line player has to have the ability to contribute timely scoring. Even if Leivo tops out as a decent third line player with some individual skills, that’s a fairly decent return on a third round pick that wasn’t even ranked by NHL Central Scouting

McKeen’s had him ranked 96th overall in 2011.

Honored as a Player of the Week, there’s this montage of goals where there’s a display of the quick release, and a high skilled play to maneuver around a Frontenacs defender before scoring on the broken down play.

There’s also a great piece of isolation video courtesy a fan at a Kingston game. Watch Leivo’s feet.

 

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Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator for McKeen's Hockey. Follow him on twitter @KatsHockey or his blog Kats Krunch at mckeenshockey.com
Avatar
#1 Vic
November 01 2012, 11:20AM
Trash it!
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trashes
+1
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props

Josh's dad was a pretty tough customer when he played junior.

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