STAND BACK

Lowetide
November 26 2012 05:07PM

The Oklahoma City Barons continued their "Goals Across America" tour this past weekend in Charlotte and at this point are one of four AHL teams with 60 or more goals this season. How dominant is this group? How many goals can they score if they stay together all season? What does their NHL eqivalency suggest for next year in the NHL? Stand back, I don't know how big this thing is going to get.

YESTERDAY'S PAPERS

Last season, the Barons averaged 2.8 goals per game (213 goals in 76 games) and finished tied for 14th in league scoring (there are 30 AHL teams); this season the Barons are averaging 3.44 goals per game (62 in 18 games) and if they continue their current trend will end up with 261 goals--an increase year over year of 48 goals. Impressive, but not unexpected--after all, adding Eberle, Hall and the Nuge (plus the phenom Schultz) should give the Barons a high octane offensive slant.

However, the contrast has been even more incredible lately. In their last 4 games, the Barons have scored 22 goals (5.5 per game) including a dominant pair of games against division leaders Charlotte Checkers this weekend. I believe the increase in offense coincides perfectly with the return to form of Taylor Hall, but opinions vary. Either way, the club is getting max performance from their impact players and the supporting cast is doing good work, too.

And the wins? They're coming down in buckets--5 in a row and since November 10th the Barons have collected 13 of a possible 14 points.

WHAT ABOUT NHL EQUIVALENCY?

It's an interesting item, NHLE during a lockout year. The incredible Eric T had a lash at the subject recently and gave us the number .55 as a "line in the sand" for NHLE. So, the number of points by said player, times .55 and then multiplied by 82 games (the number of NHL games in a normal season) finally divided by GP by said player currently.

It isn't really fair because there's not enough of the season gone to satisfy items like luck, timing and the Hockey Gods. Still, if we waited for the math guys to give the go-ahead my brain would hurt so lets kicks out the jams with the top 10 scorers on the team (10 games or more) and damn the torpedoes!

CHART (WITH COLOR!)

NAME

GP

G

A

PTS

NHLE/82

JUSTIN SCHULTZ

18

10

18

28

25-45-70

JORDAN EBERLE

18

11

15

26

28-37-65

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

17

8

12

20

21-32-53

TEEMU HARTIKAINEN

18

6

10

16

15-25-40

TAYLOR HALL

10

4

11

15

18-50-68

MAGNUS PAAJARVI

18

2

10

12

5-25-30

MARTIN MARINCIN

16

3

8

11

8-23-31

MARK ARCOBELLO

16

5

5

10

14-14-28

TAYLOR FEDUN

17

2

4

6

5-11-16

CHRIS VANDEVELDE

17

1

4

5

3-10-13

There's not a disappointing total in the bunch, really. Justin Schultz went super nova early and it'll take some time for the three NHL impact kids to catch him (since they play together most of the time, it may take longer than you'd think!). Hall's number really shot up this week (he won AHL weekly honors) and that should serve as a reminder that it is very early.

Still, the NHLE's tell a solid story and with the current scoring levels we may see even more gaudy numbers next time.

 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Oh, MY! Even if they couldn't play a lick of defense--and hell some of them have a lot to learn there--this group represents something very special. No matter the league, putting this much talent together means offense. The Barons of OKC appear to be finding the range.

Stand back.

 

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 Dipstick
November 26 2012, 09:36PM
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According to the NHLE, the Oil still don't have a 30 goal scorer. Time to flush and restart the rebuild.

Channeling DSF.

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#2 GVBlackhawk
November 27 2012, 12:11AM
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book¡e wrote:

DSF rightly calls out over optimism at times. I actually don't care that much about what the kids are doing in the AHL - I saw their abilities in the NHL last year and that means a lot more to me.

Shultz has shown very very well - better than expected, as has Yak in the KHL. THAT is big news for me.

As for the rest DSF uses a lot of half true arguments and unjustified logic. I wish the rest of you were smart enough to ignore him when he does this. I personally think he is a lonely old man who just does this for fun because he has nothing else (I could be wrong). I wish he would use his powers for good (new blog site) instead of evil (trolling).

As per his right to comment - he is a disaffected long time Oiler fan whose mind blew a circut after 20 years of Oiler Suckitude (he clarified this after someone called him a Canucks fan). I think he just has problems seeing the positives for the Oilers. Its like people who can't see the colour blue or people who can't feel pain.

I originally thought he was a young, living-in-his-parents-basement kind of guy, who was only on the site to troll. But that is not the case. He is definitely one of the oldest posters on OilersNation. Only a retired person has hat much time to post on here all day, everyday. And, in typical senior fashion, he sees things in a negative/cynical light.

I'm guessing he also drives 70kph on the highway and shakes his fist at 'speeders'.

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#3 Puritania
November 26 2012, 08:19PM
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Jesus, DSF just give it a rest.

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#4 Johe
November 26 2012, 09:33PM
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DSF wrote:

No appetite for the notion that other teams may also have some very good prospects?

Was just looking through the 2009 draft when the Oilers took Paajarvi, Lander, Hesketh, Abney and Bigos.

TB walked away with Victor Hedman, Carter Ashton (who they turned into Keith Aulie), Richard Panik (PPG in the AHL) and, ultimately, Tyler Johnson (who leads the AHL in goals scored).

That's a pretty nice haul.

Yes other teams have very good prospects. Yes Tyler Johnson is incredible. Yes Mikael Granlund would be leading the league in scoring if he weren't hurt. Yes the Houston Aeros are stacked and clearly the best team in the AHL. Yes Dale Tallon is cute and has a twinkle in his eye. Yes Kyle Wellwood can score goals on the third line while saving babies from burning buildings. But guess what? This is OILERS FREAKIN NATION! We come here to discuss the Oilers and get excited...about the Oilers. Let us have our fun!!! Squeeeeeeeeeeèéêëēėę!!!!!!¡¡¡¡¡

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#5 book¡e
November 26 2012, 10:17PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

I like how DSF keeps our emotion in check as fans.

He definitely keeps us accountable and that’s a really good thing.

IMO he brings “It” and that's all we really want is it not? Makes for great debates and interesting conversation!

@DSF

PS . I still think Mikael Granlund is way too small for the NHL and will be hurt on a regular basis! Ha!

If that is what he did, then I would like it/him too.

However, he mostly uses half truths and selective statistics to try and incite people to respond, so I really don't have much use for it.

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#6 dougtheslug
November 26 2012, 11:39PM
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DSF wrote:

Do you really think Hemsky is better than Parise?

Do you really think Smid is better than Suter?

Do you really think Yakupov is better than Koivu?

Do you really think Petry is better than Gilbert?

Hemsky vs Parise? Interesting comparison. Although Parise had 2 stellar years in 08-09 and 09-10, after his serious knee injury in early 2010, it remains to be seen if he bounces back to earn his 100 million dollar contract. Over his last 119 games, including 24 playoff games last year, he had 80 points. Hemsky on the other hand, over the same period of time,despite suffering through shoulder injuries and off season surgeries, still managed to put up 78 points in 116 games. Almost a wash. And a healthy Hemmer is averaging over a point a game this year for an inferior Pardubice club in the Czech elite league, while Parise plays shinny with his college buddies.

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#7 Walter Sobchak
November 26 2012, 09:40PM
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I like how DSF keeps our emotion in check as fans.

He definitely keeps us accountable and that’s a really good thing.

IMO he brings “It” and that's all we really want is it not? Makes for great debates and interesting conversation!

@DSF

PS . I still think Mikael Granlund is way too small for the NHL and will be hurt on a regular basis! Ha!

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#8 Darrell
November 26 2012, 07:58PM
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@DSF

Why are you such a hater DSF as its annoying ..... Your like a car wreck; we don't want to look but are forced as this is Oilersnation !

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#9 They're $hittie
November 26 2012, 08:51PM
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DSF, the players you listed are veterans and are not eligible for the AHL so your point is moot. Yes the oilers have their best players there but it is not like they have all played 300+ nhl games.

The debate was not who is better oilers or wild, it was how good the kids were doing in the AHL. Your "hating" on them is what brought up your list of minnesota wild players which have nothing to do with the AHL.

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#10 David S
November 26 2012, 06:05PM
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Aaaand off topic I know, but who do I talk to about the lack of POLLZ at this here site?

You allow us the utter joy of commenting on POLLZ yet deny us the joy of voting on POLLZ.

What's the deal bub?

POLLZ!

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#11 Darrell
November 26 2012, 08:31PM
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@DSF

Just show respect as this is Oilersnation as we don't crap in your blog wherever that may be ..... Cheers and GO OIL!

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#12 book¡e
November 26 2012, 08:46PM
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DSF rightly calls out over optimism at times. I actually don't care that much about what the kids are doing in the AHL - I saw their abilities in the NHL last year and that means a lot more to me.

Shultz has shown very very well - better than expected, as has Yak in the KHL. THAT is big news for me.

As for the rest DSF uses a lot of half true arguments and unjustified logic. I wish the rest of you were smart enough to ignore him when he does this. I personally think he is a lonely old man who just does this for fun because he has nothing else (I could be wrong). I wish he would use his powers for good (new blog site) instead of evil (trolling).

As per his right to comment - he is a disaffected long time Oiler fan whose mind blew a circut after 20 years of Oiler Suckitude (he clarified this after someone called him a Canucks fan). I think he just has problems seeing the positives for the Oilers. Its like people who can't see the colour blue or people who can't feel pain.

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#13 Sliderule
November 26 2012, 05:41PM
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I am way more optimistic for Hall than that .

He should be an 90pt player when the NHL gets it's act together

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#14 Wanyes bastard child
November 26 2012, 05:55PM
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I think the bigger question is Eberle's shooting percentage and whether or not it is sustainable myself...

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#15 David S
November 26 2012, 05:58PM
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Anybody care to speculate where the Barons would be right now without the fab four? From what I've seen so far there's been pitiful secondary scoring. Maybe they're racking up the wins now so that they can still make the playoffs when all the NHL'ers get called up.

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#16 Dawn
November 26 2012, 05:59PM
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Well for what it's worth, I hope the NHL stays out all season. Besides the fact that they're all being douchy, I am just digging this Barons season. And while we're at it, why not host a tournament between the winners of the AHL, KHL, and any other adult leagues that want to take part. Then award them the Stanley cup. It's not like the NHL owns it. And furthermore, they don't deserve it anyway. They can't even keep their game on.

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#17 Darrell olynick
November 26 2012, 06:16PM
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Long time reader, first tme poster and DSF comment hater ! I was at both games this weekend in Charlotte ($25 a game with $12 x 7ish beers) and was stunned at how little effort these guys use. I honestly felt these guy could score during any given shift. They showed it in the 3rd during game 1 and second period in game 2. As for DSF; he serves his purpose keeping our heads screwed on tight but dare him to compare any of these studs to any Wild and or Canuck apples to apples after ths AHL or partial NHL season. In the meantime, I suggest he gets in his digs as these kids are for real but unfortunatly so is the lockout.

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#18 ray
November 26 2012, 06:38PM
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who cares about defense......this is more fun, besides im 56...i remember in the old days...there was never defense.....all out offense.....don't let anybody tell you that oilers played well defensively....hell...i use to shake my head watching the defensive blunders....but boy could they score!!!

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#19 Wanyes bastard child
November 26 2012, 06:57PM
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The best defense is a good offense!!!

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#20 Quintana
November 26 2012, 07:26PM
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DSF wrote:

Holy cow!

Tyler (who?) Johnson, currently playing with the Syracuse Crunch, is going to score 32 goals and 55 points for Tampa Bay when the NHL resumes.

Not bad for an undrafted player.

Nahhhh, at 5.10, 185 lb probably never will make the NHL.....now back to your parents basement.....

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#21 Harlie
November 26 2012, 08:04PM
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DSF wrote:

Tyler Johnson:

2010/11 Spokane Chiefs - 71GP 53G 62A 115P (led the league in goals)

Jordan Eberle:

2009/10 Regina Pats - 57GP 50G 56A 106P

Given that Johnson scored 31 goals and 68 points as an AHL rookie last season, it appears that the NHL scouting community missed the boat big time.

I'll put up a game used, rookie season, autographed, Oilers holographed and databased Jordan Eberle hockey stick versus whatever you can muster at equal value that Eberle will have a better NHL career than Johnny Whasisnameandtheotherfellers that you mention.

Put up or shut up, Bub.

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#22 Oilertown
November 26 2012, 08:29PM
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DSF wrote:

Well, I don't hate anyone....not sure why you would say that.

Just find it odd that these players are being elected to the HHOF before even 20 games have been played in the season.

While it's true that the cluster of nice young talent the Barons are running out on a nightly basis are doing well, it's almost important to note the Barons are NOT the highest scoring team in the AHL and that, while virtually all of the Oilers best players are currently playing with the Barons, other teams best players are not.

Can you imagine how well the Houston Aeros would be playing if they had Koivu, Parise, Suter and Backstrom in the lineup?

Wouldn't even be a contest.

The Barons might well win the AHL championship but it really doesn't have much of a reflection on how well the Oilers will do.

Wow holy DSF and could you imagine if the Barons had Hemsky Smid Petry Yakupov in the line up wow sure would make it a contest. Give it a rest ppl are very tired of you around here and Lowetide.

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#23 Oilertown
November 26 2012, 08:45PM
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DSF wrote:

Do you really think Hemsky is better than Parise?

Do you really think Smid is better than Suter?

Do you really think Yakupov is better than Koivu?

Do you really think Petry is better than Gilbert?

I will give you Parise Suter may be a hair better then Smid. Suter is over valued we will see how he does without Weber. Yakupov is gonna destroy Koivu. And Gilbert better then Petry really are you for real???

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#24 DSF
November 26 2012, 09:09PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

DSF, the players you listed are veterans and are not eligible for the AHL so your point is moot. Yes the oilers have their best players there but it is not like they have all played 300+ nhl games.

The debate was not who is better oilers or wild, it was how good the kids were doing in the AHL. Your "hating" on them is what brought up your list of minnesota wild players which have nothing to do with the AHL.

The kids are doing fine, as a cluster, but they are not blowing away the competition.

Last we heard, Sam Gagner was going to be the next Doug Gilmour.

Now we hear Eberle is going to be the next Joey Mullen.

While I think the Oilers have some very nice young talent, it's important to manage expectations.

Especially after fewer than 20 games in an AHL season.

They're riding a hot hand but would be struggling with Yan Danis bailing them out.

For example, Schultz’s shooting percentage is 18.5.

Erik Karlsson’s shooting percentage last season was 7.3.

There is a huge regression to the mean due to take place here.

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#25 geoilersgist
November 26 2012, 09:48PM
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@David S

HERE HERE. MORE POLLZ TO COMMENT ON PLEAZE

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#26 Taylor Gang
November 26 2012, 10:54PM
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Mark my words this is the year Hall takes off. Had he not had to get up to speed he would be scoring at a better rate than Schultz. Expect him to be a league leader in 2013

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#27 Chris
November 27 2012, 12:59AM
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@DSF

Eberle will have a superior NHL career to Johnson, retire, and then become a better GM than Dave Tallon. Book it.

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#28 ed in mada
November 27 2012, 03:03AM
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DSF wrote:

The kids are doing fine, as a cluster, but they are not blowing away the competition.

Last we heard, Sam Gagner was going to be the next Doug Gilmour.

Now we hear Eberle is going to be the next Joey Mullen.

While I think the Oilers have some very nice young talent, it's important to manage expectations.

Especially after fewer than 20 games in an AHL season.

They're riding a hot hand but would be struggling with Yan Danis bailing them out.

For example, Schultz’s shooting percentage is 18.5.

Erik Karlsson’s shooting percentage last season was 7.3.

There is a huge regression to the mean due to take place here.

Now youv'e regressed (see I've stolen your word)from cherry picking stats to cherry picking comments.

Perhaps the world's biggest Gagner fan (his mom?) compared him to Gilmour. Most of the chatter about Gagner is usually about whether he would be trade bait.

Eberle's consistenly high shooting % does warrant comparisons with known players who have the same skill. Throw in a commentator comparing Eberle to Mullen on draft day, and there you are.

Schultz's early success is remarkable, but does anyone claim his shooting% is a given. I believe earlier comments pointed out that 18.5% won't last.

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#29 Sliderule
November 26 2012, 05:28PM
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Those NHLe numbers don't mean anything when you are looking at high end real NHL players.

During the last lockout Spezza 1.4 pts/game after lockout 1.3 pts/game. Staal 1.0 pts/game after lockout 1.3 pts /game.

I would expect the oiler fab four to end up with very near the same NHL number as their AHL number

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#32 PaperDesigner
November 26 2012, 05:52PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Hall was .868/game in the NHL last season and is .829NHLE so far (and he's clearly healthy now). I'd say thats in the range.

Hall also started slow, in large part due to taking time to get back up to speed.

I think this is his supernova year. Or it would have been, had Bettman and Fehr, you know, actually wanted to play hockey.

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#34 DSF
November 26 2012, 05:56PM
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Holy cow!

Tyler (who?) Johnson, currently playing with the Syracuse Crunch, is going to score 32 goals and 55 points for Tampa Bay when the NHL resumes.

Not bad for an undrafted player.

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#35 David S
November 26 2012, 06:00PM
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Wanyes bastard child wrote:

I think the bigger question is Eberle's shooting percentage and whether or not it is sustainable myself...

As I remember, it was the primary topic of discussion for most of July, August and September.

My take is that he might just be that good.

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#38 ray
November 26 2012, 06:59PM
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your right...defense is definately good to have..i was stretching it a bit...but i also remember coffey was caught quite a few times, but of course with his skating and offensive abilities, everything use to be quickly forgotten and forgiving!

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#39 Brad
November 26 2012, 07:30PM
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So LeBrun was right on draft day. Eberle = Mullen

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#40 DSF
November 26 2012, 07:39PM
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Quintana wrote:

Nahhhh, at 5.10, 185 lb probably never will make the NHL.....now back to your parents basement.....

Same size as Jordan Eberle.

Amazing.

BTW, my parents died years ago.

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#41 DSF
November 26 2012, 07:58PM
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Tyler Johnson:

2010/11 Spokane Chiefs - 71GP 53G 62A 115P (led the league in goals)

Jordan Eberle:

2009/10 Regina Pats - 57GP 50G 56A 106P

Given that Johnson scored 31 goals and 68 points as an AHL rookie last season, it appears that the NHL scouting community missed the boat big time.

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#42 DSF
November 26 2012, 08:07PM
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Darrell wrote:

Why are you such a hater DSF as its annoying ..... Your like a car wreck; we don't want to look but are forced as this is Oilersnation !

Well, I don't hate anyone....not sure why you would say that.

Just find it odd that these players are being elected to the HHOF before even 20 games have been played in the season.

While it's true that the cluster of nice young talent the Barons are running out on a nightly basis are doing well, it's almost important to note the Barons are NOT the highest scoring team in the AHL and that, while virtually all of the Oilers best players are currently playing with the Barons, other teams best players are not.

Can you imagine how well the Houston Aeros would be playing if they had Koivu, Parise, Suter and Backstrom in the lineup?

Wouldn't even be a contest.

The Barons might well win the AHL championship but it really doesn't have much of a reflection on how well the Oilers will do.

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#43 DSF
November 26 2012, 08:14PM
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Harlie wrote:

I'll put up a game used, rookie season, autographed, Oilers holographed and databased Jordan Eberle hockey stick versus whatever you can muster at equal value that Eberle will have a better NHL career than Johnny Whasisnameandtheotherfellers that you mention.

Put up or shut up, Bub.

You're on.

Get back to me in 2027 and we'll declare a winner :)

In the meantime, this Johnson kids looks like he might be the real deal since his game has translated very well to the pros.

If he can make a jump to the NHL, now that he has a 3 year ELC, he might end up playing on Stamkos' wing.

Wouldn't that be something?

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#44 Oilertown
November 26 2012, 08:34PM
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Sad that ppl are still sooo bitter towards the Oil because of all those cups sooo many years ago that's what I think is wrong with DSF.

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#45 DSF
November 26 2012, 08:38PM
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Oilertown wrote:

Wow holy DSF and could you imagine if the Barons had Hemsky Smid Petry Yakupov in the line up wow sure would make it a contest. Give it a rest ppl are very tired of you around here and Lowetide.

Do you really think Hemsky is better than Parise?

Do you really think Smid is better than Suter?

Do you really think Yakupov is better than Koivu?

Do you really think Petry is better than Gilbert?

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#46 DSF
November 26 2012, 08:50PM
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Puritania wrote:

Jesus, DSF just give it a rest.

No appetite for the notion that other teams may also have some very good prospects?

Was just looking through the 2009 draft when the Oilers took Paajarvi, Lander, Hesketh, Abney and Bigos.

TB walked away with Victor Hedman, Carter Ashton (who they turned into Keith Aulie), Richard Panik (PPG in the AHL) and, ultimately, Tyler Johnson (who leads the AHL in goals scored).

That's a pretty nice haul.

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#47 Darrell
November 26 2012, 08:55PM
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@Oilertown

JC your lost DSF ..... who do you have that matches Ebs, Hall, RNH and Shultz if those other players are a wash? Those Wild FA contracts are a damn joke and will take any one of our four at fwds plus the other three and Schultz ..... I seen it dude - trust me ....

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#48 They're $hittie
November 26 2012, 09:16PM
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@DSF

so what in the point you just made has to do with the minnesota wild veteran players

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#49 Oilertown
November 26 2012, 10:03PM
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Tyler Johnson is also 22 years old playing in the AHL.

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#50 Kypreos
November 26 2012, 10:16PM
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I agree with DSF

He has brough up a lot of good points and stats to back it up.

Yes playing beside Stamkos would be awesome for Johnson he could put up 70-80 points easily.

Good comments!

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