Picking the winner of the Stanley Cup Finals
Jonathan Willis
May 29 2012 02:46PM
So far, these playoffs have defied prediction, as our playoff prediction contest tends to demonstrate. Interestingly though, there seems to be a very clear favourite in the series between Los Angeles and New Jersey.
Writer Picks
| Writer | Team | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Kent Wilson | LA | 6 |
| Jason Gregor | LA | 6 |
| Lowetide | LA | 6 |
| Vintage Flame | LA | 6 |
| Ryan Pike | LA | 6 |
| Jonathan Willis | LA | 7 |
| Justin Azevedo | LA | 5 |
If our predictions mean anything, Los Angeles will win the Stanley Cup in a six game series over the New Jersey Devils. There is a clear consensus among our writers on that score.
The Standings
However, as these standings show, that consensus may bear little relationship to what actually happens in the series. Note – I’ve included everyone who has entered at any point, even if only for one round, so some of the percentages below don’t reflect the fact that the entrant may have missed a round or three.
| Writer | Total Score | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Beavis | 9 | 64.3% |
| schevvy | 9 | 64.3% |
| ~S~K~ | 8 | 57.1% |
| BigE91 | 8 | 57.1% |
| Cam Charron | 8 | 57.1% |
| Dunnonuttin | 8 | 57.1% |
| geoilersgist | 8 | 57.1% |
| greenlightning86 | 8 | 57.1% |
| Johe | 8 | 57.1% |
| Wax Man Riley | 8 | 57.1% |
| Vintage Flame | 8 | 57.1% |
| Bucknuck | 7 | 50.0% |
| D | 7 | 50.0% |
| First Name Unidentified | 7 | 50.0% |
| Horcsky | 7 | 50.0% |
| Jason Gregor | 7 | 50.0% |
| Koolaid drinker #33 | 7 | 50.0% |
| Mantastic | 7 | 50.0% |
| master of my domain | 7 | 50.0% |
| Matt Stephen | 7 | 50.0% |
| Oilers4ever | 7 | 50.0% |
| Orange-n-Blue | 7 | 50.0% |
| Danny Gray | 6 | 42.9% |
| david | 6 | 42.9% |
| EvanAllTogether | 6 | 42.9% |
| ItsTheBGB | 6 | 42.9% |
| John Cullen | 6 | 42.9% |
| Jonathan Willis | 6 | 42.9% |
| Lowetide | 6 | 42.9% |
| madjam | 6 | 42.9% |
| maimster | 6 | 42.9% |
| Mason Storm | 6 | 42.9% |
| Number 44 | 6 | 42.9% |
| Oilerpride15 | 6 | 42.9% |
| TLHansum | 6 | 42.9% |
| yawto | 6 | 42.9% |
| Alberto's dad | 5 | 35.7% |
| ashley | 5 | 35.7% |
| DieHard | 5 | 35.7% |
| Justin Azevedo | 5 | 35.7% |
| Kent Wilson | 5 | 35.7% |
| Quicksilver ballet | 5 | 35.7% |
| Time Travelling Sean | 5 | 35.7% |
| Woodguy | 5 | 35.7% |
| Abby W. | 4 | 28.6% |
| Brett Mitchell | 4 | 28.6% |
| Cam Davie | 4 | 28.6% |
| Ern Beckett | 4 | 28.6% |
| icedawg_42 | 4 | 28.6% |
| James | 4 | 28.6% |
| Jeff Angus | 4 | 28.6% |
| Marda Miller | 4 | 28.6% |
| mayorpoop | 4 | 28.6% |
| Nate Sans Hate | 4 | 28.6% |
| ncomas | 4 | 28.6% |
| oilderrick | 4 | 28.6% |
| Oilers G | 4 | 28.6% |
| Rob Vollman | 4 | 28.6% |
| shanetrain | 4 | 28.6% |
| Thomas Drance | 4 | 28.6% |
| Tim in Kelowna | 4 | 28.6% |
| Trentonl | 4 | 28.6% |
| Wes Mantooth | 4 | 28.6% |
| Colin | 3 | 21.4% |
| Come join the Dark Parade | 3 | 21.4% |
| dan | 3 | 21.4% |
| Gitagrip | 3 | 21.4% |
| gord962 | 3 | 21.4% |
| John Lofranco | 3 | 21.4% |
| Patrick Johnston | 3 | 21.4% |
| Tinfoil Tuque | 3 | 21.4% |
| Wanyes bastard child | 3 | 21.4% |
| Chris | 2 | 14.3% |
| Copperblueandwhite | 2 | 14.3% |
| Dawn | 2 | 14.3% |
| everton fc | 2 | 14.3% |
| Fight Club | 2 | 14.3% |
| mark | 2 | 14.3% |
| Mattthemascot | 2 | 14.3% |
| Ryan Fancey | 2 | 14.3% |
| Dan the Man | 1 | 7.1% |
| Ron Burgundy | 1 | 7.1% |
| Sincity1976 | 1 | 7.1% |
| SLAM | 1 | 7.1% |
Once again, I list my name above Lowetide’s even though we’re tied. You might think thhis has to do with alphabetical order, but you would be wrong; I do this solely because of his merciless ribbing after out-predicting the entire field last year.
Get your predictions for the Final in below.
LAK in 6
Go Sutter!
LAK in 7 - NJ will push it to the brink.
Ummm Jonathan. I should be at 8 not 7.
I had LA and NYR in the last round.
I left the contest after Round 1, but I'll pick the Devils in 7.
@Bucknuck
You think LA wins that game 7 on the road? I Like LA too but if it takes 7 games I'm iffy about that.
I want brodeur to win another cup but im sticking with my gut it seems to be working so far. LA in 6
considering i never even put in my picks for the 2nd round (i think) i'll take 28%.
kings in 4.
Tied for the lead!! Shows that the people of Lethbridge know their stuff! (well, some of them)
I'm not sure what my co-leader Beavis is picking, but I'll go LA in 6. If he picks the same I may go opposite. Go for it all!
LA in 5
Ok, I'll say it for him....
Quicksilver Ballet = Come Join The Dark Parade, so he is either beating himself with a poor record ;p
Or he is up at 8 wins.... tied with me (just had to brag) for 2nd....
Which is it, Quicks?
Now the conundrum... do I take the chance to win (or tie, ftw), or do I go with my gut..... I'll be back in a couple hours....
@Wax Man
I try and maintain a low profile. I changed my name to divide my score so others may share in a little bit of the ON glory.
Hard to believe LT went 14/15 last yr.
Kings in 6,Quick for Conn Smythe
Kings in 6
I, for one, appreciate that glory.
Thanks Quicks!!
LA in 6
NJD in 6.
Nothing makes sense this year, so LA losing 4 games is a perfect prediction.
LA in 5 with three road victories. Brodeur will be handing over the torch to Quick after this one.
@Vintage Flame
Right you are, sir. I shall correct that immediately!
I agree with the bloggers here. LA in 6.
Ha. I only started playing last round. Got one of them which gets me tied for last place.
I think LA in 5. LA has already walked through two strong teams. Phoenix as well. So I don't buy into the myth that the next round is going to be any tougher.
On a side note, at the beginning of the year I bet on three teams to win the cup. Calgary because I am a sucker. Buffalo because they were my dark horse. And LA because I thought they would win the cup.
Only I completely forgot I bet on LA until I logged into bodog the other day. Nice surprise! At least now I have some reason to watch the cup finals. LA vs NJ? Really? Yawn.
Since every one is picking La, it's time for me to make a power move.
NEW JERSEY IN 4!!!!
My decision to go with 5 games was entirely based on the fact that NJ is the home team and LA has been tearing it up on the road. If LA had home ice advantage I would have said 6 games.
LA in 6
I understand everyone picking LA to win based on their physicality, speed, skill, size, coaching, and sheer dominance.
However, everyone minus Flames and Bruins fans thought Vancouver was going to win the Stanley Cup last season. The Canucks looked unstoppable.
Remember that NJ has the equivalence to some of the players on LA.
Brown=Parise Kopitar=Kovalchuck.
NJ's fourth line has amassed 16 points. Guys like Elias and Brodeur know what it takes to win in the finals. LA has never won the Stanley Cup.
Richards, Carter, Stoll and Darryl Sutter all made it to the finals and lost. The finals are completely different beast.
Devils in 6. But how does Ryan Smyth feel if the Kings win the cup, especially with his current contract negotiations?
@Greg Stink | ESPN
Who really cares how Ryan Smyth feels? I am just waiting for Cry Baby 2 - Mommy they didn't sign me a again!. The pre-screening reviews are pretty dreadful but I could watch Smyth cry all day.
NJ in 7 - Brodeur retires :) Henrique is Rookie of the year.
LA 5
As much as I want to believe in LA's magic. Brodeur will have an answer and Quick will get first hand experience on how to win Championships. Jersey in 4.
I've been picking counterintuitively for much of these three rounds and it seems to have worked out, so I'll do it again and go for New Jersey in 7 (but I'll admit that this in part due to the fact that schevvy above picked LA and it works out better if one of us gets to be the overall winner). Part of the pick is based on something I read, maybe at NHL numbers, maybe at Backhand shelf, about LA and hot streaks and how they have to end at some point. We shall see. I'm happy either way as I'd love to see Penner win the cup again.
kings in 5
Missed the 3rd round but would have scored 50%. LA in 4.
LA will face adversity for the first time in these playoffs and actually lose two games. LA in 6.
LA in six.
LA in 6
LA in 5.
LA in 7
Devils in 7
LA 6
LA in 6
Devils in 7.
Devils in 6!
NJD won both meetings between these two teams this year. I see it continuing, even though it is hard to bet against LA. I pick New Jersey in 6.
Gotta be careful not to cheer for too many teams. Like NJ a bit with Brodeur, Parise and Zajac. Like a long series when I'm too broke for alternatives (like buying hockey DVDs and watching Ivan Hlinka). But expect LA sweep. NYR didn't look good and I'm a big Lundqvist fan. Beat Holtby. LA got injured Sedin, and Pieterangelo, and offensively challenged (for final 4) Phx. Still LA dominated. If Salvador is best NJ defenseman, Zidlicky prolly getting a little soft... LA has lots of young defenseman and added 5 players by deadline. Weirdly LA's young D look solid compared to NYR turnover machines and Girardi 5 holes. I think Brodeur is a 10-15 goalie. Hmm, maybe I like Lundqvist better than Quick. Gaborik isn't as agile or strong as before injuries and when young. I do like Parise and Kovachuk better than Kopitar and Richards but NJ just doesn't match up on FW. All LA is missing is a #2 D and would be trult dominant.
Injuries can explain a lot. Phx, NJ-over-NYR and Philly over Pittsburgh only upsets I see. Brodeur outplayed Lundqvist and many pre-season NYR turnovers. Was that Van Damme in the crowd?!
Grapes stole my pick: Clarkson. But NYR ruined the contest by falling down like bowling pins. Brodeur is playing well. I'll say J.Carter snipes a rebound off the ref and in.