Leafs Assists Breakdown

Gus Katsaros
September 13 2012 11:01AM

Expanding on the Goals Breakdown by Period post, I’m presenting a breakdown of some of the more prominent Leafs points producers based on their assist breakdown by player.

The tables are broken down as a player listed in the header as the main player being analyzed. Each assist is differentiated between a first and second. I don’t feel that makes a difference to who ‘set up’ the goal, since order is determined at random at times it seems. Nonetheless, assists are broken down between first and second.

These assist breakdowns are all at even strength, no special teams.

Using Tyler Bozak as an example with Phil Kessel, the Leafs sniper scored 11 goals in which Bozak earned assists, 7 first assists, and 4 seconds signified by the AB1 and AB2 column headers. Kessel conversely had nine assists on Bozak goals signified by A01 and A02 headers.

Chart Legend:

Gls – goals scored by listed players

AB1 and AB2 – Assists by player on goals of listed players

AO1 and AO2 – Assists by listed players on goals scored by main player.

GF – goals for

GA – goals against

GF/20 – goals for per 20 minutes

GA/20 – goals against per 20 minutes

Data is provided through hockey-Reference.com and hockeyanalysis.com 

Tyler Bozak Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Phil Kessel 11 7 4 6 3 42 46 0.931 1.019 902:26
Joffrey Lupul 3 1 2 2 2 36 36 1.134 1.134 634:58
Matthew Lombardi 2 2 - - 1 5 9 0.723 1.301 138:24
Luke Schenn 1 - 1 2 3 14 19 0.846 1.148 331:07
Matt Frattin 1 1 - 1 - 6 3 1.036 0.518 115:50
Cody Franson 1 - 1 - 1 13 15 1.039 1.199 250:14
John-Michael Liles 1 1 - - - 14 16 0.801 0.916 349:25
Clarke MacArthur - - - 1 - 4 3 0.804 0.603 99:33

Jumping out is the departed Luke Schenn’s five points, garnering an assist in 5 of 14 goals for while both were on the ice. Noticeably absent is Jake Gardiner, where the two players combined for one assist on the power play, a goal scored by Bozak on Jan 31, 2012 in a 5-4 shootout loss to Penguins.

  

Tim Connolly Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Phil Kessel 5 2 3 - - 11 12 0.894 0.975 246:10
Clarke MacArthur 4 3 1 1 - 8 6 0.881 0.660 181:41
Joffrey Lupul 3 1 2 3 - 10 14 0.945 1.323 211:42
Carl Gunnarsson 3 3 - - - 10 18 0.629 1.133 317:52
Joey Crabb 1 - 1 2 1 9 10 0.704 0.782 255:48
Matthew Lombardi 1 1 - 1 - 8 11 0.833 1.146 191:58
Jake Gardiner 1 1 - 1 - 16 8 1.246 0.623 #N/A
David Steckel 1 - 1 - 2 5 6 0.745 0.894 134:18
Mikhail Grabovski 1 1 - - - 2 4 0.733 1.465 54:36
Cody Franson - - - 1 1 7 8 0.795 0.908 176:07
Matt Frattin - - - 1 - 2 2 0.479 0.479 83:29
Nikolai Kulemin - - - - 1 5 5 0.957 0.957 104:31
Colby Armstrong - - - - 1 1 2 0.286 0.572 69:54
Dion Phaneuf - - - - 1 11 19 0.571 0.986 385:34

If there’s an argument to be made of reuniting Connolly between Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul perhaps a pace of setting up a Kessel goal once every 49 minutes at even strength in relation to Tyler Bozak’s once every 82 minutes. It’s a flimsy argument, at best. I don’t believe Connolly is the man to line up there. That’s Bozak’s spot to lose barring further changes through acquisition. 

Jake Gardiner Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Mikhail Grabovski 6 3 3 2 - 21 15 1.328 0.949 316:12
Matthew Lombardi 2 2 - 1 - 9 11 0.681 0.832 264:18
Phil Kessel 2 1 1 1 - 23 23 1.054 1.054 436:38
Joffrey Lupul 2 1 1 - - 19 19 1.229 1.229 309:14
Joey Crabb 2 - 2 - - 13 9 1.141 0.790 227:55
Tim Connolly 1 1 - 1 - 16 8 1.246 0.623 256:50
Clarke MacArthur 1 1 - - 1 17 12 1.153 0.814 294:48
Nazem Kadri 1 1 - - - 5 4 1.285 1.028 77:50
Luke Schenn - - - - 1 29 31 0.934 0.999 620:44
Joe Colborne - - - - 1 4 1 1.587 0.397 50:25

Mikhail Grabovski Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Clarke MacArthur 10 7 3 3 1 29 22 1.002 0.76 579:04
Matt Frattin 3 3 0 0 0 9 13 0.649 0.938 277:13
Nikolai Kulemin 3 1 2 3 2 31 24 0.9 0.697 688:58
Jake Gardiner 2 2 0 3 3 21 15 1.328 0.949 316:12
Joffrey Lupul 1 1 0 2 0 7 3 3.622 1.552 38:39
Carl Gunnarsson 1 1 0 1 3 17 14 0.879 0.724 386:40
Dion Phaneuf 1 1 0 1 0 16 12 0.722 0.542 443:06
Joey Crabb 1 1 0 0 4 10 4 1.273 0.509 157:06
Matthew Lombardi 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 0.651 3.257 30:42
Luke Schenn 0 0 0 2 3 17 13 1.33 1.017 255:43
Cody Franson 0 0 0 1 0 10 8 1.013 0.81 197:26
John-Michael Liles 0 0 0 1 0 11 14 0.749 0.953 293:52
Tim Connolly 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 0.733 1.465 54:36
Phil Kessel 0 0 0 0 1 7 4 1.797 1.027 77:54
Nazem Kadri 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1.32 0.88 45:27

Right at the bottom is an interesting, albeit small sample. I find intriguing because I maintain that Clarke MacArthur is in Nazem Kadri’s spot, second line left wing. Combining with Grabovski for a goal every 15 minutes is an encouraging sign. The potential here is another ‘piece’ inserted into a prominent role.

 

Phil Kessel Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Joffrey Lupul 11 9 2 7 5 53 51 1.240 1.193 855:02
Tyler Bozak 9 6 3 7 4 42 46 0.931 1.019 902:26
Dion Phaneuf 4 4 - 2 2 24 24 1.098 1.098 437:08
Cody Franson 2 1 1 1 - 16 15 1.084 1.017 295:06
John-Michael Liles 1 - 1 1 2 17 15 0.850 0.750 399:49
Jake Gardiner 1 1 - 1 1 23 23 1.054 1.054 436:38
Clarke MacArthur 1 - 1 - 1 4 5 0.640 0.799 125:05
Mikhail Grabovski 1 - 1 - - 7 4 1.797 1.027 77:54
David Steckel 1 - 1 - - 3 4 1.130 1.506 53:07
Matt Frattin 1 - 1 - - 3 2 0.742 0.494 80:54
Tim Connolly - - - 2 3 11 12 0.894 0.975 246:10
Carl Gunnarsson - - - 2 2 17 18 0.937 0.993 362:43
Matthew Lombardi - - - 2 - 7 6 1.162 0.996 120:26
Luke Schenn - - - - 2 19 22 1.035 1.198 367:14
Mike Komisarek - - - - 2 9 14 0.885 1.376 203:27

The Leafs sniper obviously had a lot of success with Bozak and Lupul, then it thins out throughout the lineup. Lupul would add assists and Leafs captain, Dion Phaneuf both earned five assists each on Kessel’s 10 power play markers. 

Nikolai Kulemin Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Clarke MacArthur 7 2 5 - 2 22 14 0.970 0.617 453:50
Mikhail Grabovski 5 3 2 1 2 31 24 0.900 0.697 688:58
Luke Schenn 1 1 - 1 - 15 7 1.305 0.609 229:48
Tim Connolly 1 - 1 - - 5 5 0.957 0.957 104:31
Matt Frattin 1 - 1 - - 4 5 0.479 0.599 166:51
Carl Gunnarsson 1 - 1 - - 13 10 0.758 0.583 343:01
Dion Phaneuf - - - 2 1 12 12 0.616 0.616 389:42
Darryl Boyce - - - 1 - 1 1 4.706 4.706 4:15
Phil Kessel - - - - - 0 0 0.000 0.000 9:36
David Steckel - - - - - 1 2 0.446 0.891 44:53
Cody Franson - - - - - 8 8 1.025 1.025 156:04
Matthew Lombardi - - - - - 2 3 0.871 1.306 45:57
John-Michael Liles - - - - - 8 11 0.728 1.001 219:50
Joey Crabb - - - - - 6 4 0.921 0.614 130:19
Jake Gardiner - - - - - 15 9 1.258 0.755 238:24

The Russian struggled to score with anyone other than Grabovski and MacArthur. Noticeable as well is that Kulemin doesn’t have a negative gf/ga ratio with any player other than Matt Frattin. Digging a little deeper he was on the ice for 15 goals and nine against with Gardiner and 8/11 with JM Liles. 

John-Michael Liles Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Phil Kessel 3 1 2 - 1 17 15 0.850 0.750 399:49
Joey Crabb 1 - 1 - 1 7 5 0.803 0.574 174:17
Mikhail Grabovski 1 1 - - - 11 14 0.749 0.953 293:52
Mike Brown 1 1 - - - 1 5 0.177 0.886 112:54
Cody Franson 1 1 - - - 11 12 0.561 0.612 392:01
Dion Phaneuf 1 - 1 - - 4 6 0.790 1.185 101:17
Joe Colborne 1 - 1 - - 1 2 0.394 0.787 50:49
Luke Schenn 1 - 1 - - 3 10 0.357 1.190 168:00
Matt Frattin 1 - 1 - - 7 11 0.582 0.914 240:41
Joffrey Lupul - - - 1 - 14 10 1.084 0.774 258:20
Tyler Bozak - - - 1 - 14 16 0.801 0.916 349:25
Clarke MacArthur - - - 1 - 13 15 0.947 1.092 274:37

The rushing blueliner scored four goals on the power play and spread his playmaking around with nine assists amongst the Bozak/Kessel/Lupul first power play unit. At even strength, other than with Kessel, Lupul and Crabb, he had a negative goal differential. 

Joffrey Lupul Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Phil Kessel 12 7 5 9 2 53 51 1.240 1.193 855:02
Tyler Bozak 4 2 2 1 2 36 36 1.134 1.134 634:58
Tim Connolly 3 3 - 1 2 10 14 0.945 1.323 211:42
Dion Phaneuf 2 - 2 1 1 21 23 1.160 1.270 362:10
Mikhail Grabovski 2 2 - 1 - 7 3 3.622 1.552 38:39
Luke Schenn 1 1 - - 1 15 17 1.084 1.228 276:50
Joey Crabb 1 1 - - - 1 0 1.802 0.000 11:06
John-Michael Liles 1 1 - - - 14 10 1.084 0.774 258:20
David Steckel 1 1 - - - 2 3 1.203 1.805 33:15
Nazem Kadri 1 1 - - - 1 3 0.739 2.217 27:04
Carl Gunnarsson 1 - 1 - - 17 18 1.165 1.234 291:51
Jake Gardiner - - - 1 1 19 19 1.229 1.229 309:14
Mike Komisarek - - - 1 - 7 7 1.073 1.073 130:29
Keith Aulie - - - - 1 5 6 1.476 1.771 67:46
Cody Franson - - - - - 16 16 1.395 1.395 229:21

Lupul lined up with Grabovski shared 38 minutes of ice with seven goals for and three against at even strength. That’s a lot of broken minutes but a 3.622 GF/20 is impressive. Even the limited minutes with Joey Crabb (11) produced a goal.

Clarke MacArthur Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Mikhail Grabovski 4 3 1 7 3 29 22 1.002 0.760 579:04
Nikolai Kulemin 2 - 2 2 5 22 14 0.970 0.617 453:50
Nazem Kadri 2 2 - - - 5 1 0.897 0.179 111:31
Carl Gunnarsson 2 - 2 - - 12 11 0.712 0.653 336:57
Tim Connolly 1 1 - 3 1 8 6 0.881 0.660 181:41
Dion Phaneuf 1 - 1 1 1 15 9 0.751 0.450 399:39
Jake Gardiner 1 - 1 1 - 17 12 1.153 0.814 294:48
Phil Kessel 1 - 1 - 1 4 5 0.640 0.799 125:05
Tyler Bozak 1 1 - - - 4 3 0.804 0.603 99:33
John-Michael Liles 1 1 - - - 13 15 0.947 1.092 274:37
Matt Frattin 1 1 - - - 7 7 1.418 1.418 98:44
Mike Komisarek - - - 1 - 9 7 1.091 0.849 164:58
Joey Crabb - - - 1 - 2 1 0.679 0.340 58:53
Cody Franson - - - - 1 1 5 0.104 0.522 191:24

For the second straight season MacArthur was inconsistent at best. He fell off in the second half just like the previous season, scoring only 3 goals in the last 27 games (much like two goals in the final 20 games from 2010-11). One could note the drop in assists totals as a direct reflection of the decreased scoring from Kulemin (23 less goals = a bunch of missing assists).

Dion Phaneuf Gls AB1 AB2 AO1 AO2 GF GA GF/20 GA/20 TOI
Phil Kessel 4 2 2 4 - 24 24 1.098 1.098 437:08
Nikolai Kulemin 3 2 1 - - 12 12 0.616 0.616 389:42
Joffrey Lupul 2 1 1 - 2 21 23 1.160 1.270 362:10
Clarke MacArthur 2 1 1 - 1 15 9 0.751 0.450 399:39
Joey Crabb 2 1 1 - - 8 15 0.480 0.900 333:12
Mikhail Grabovski 1 1 - 1 - 16 12 0.722 0.542 443:06
David Steckel 1 - 1 - - 7 14 0.432 0.865 323:53
Tim Connolly 1 - 1 - - 11 19 0.571 0.986 385:34
John-Michael Liles - - - - 1 4 6 0.790 1.185 101:17
Matthew Lombardi - - - - - 8 13 0.717 1.165 223:11
Tyler Bozak - - - - - 17 18 1.019 1.079 333:31
Mike Brown - - - - - 3 8 0.395 1.053 151:57
Nazem Kadri - - - - - 2 1 0.465 0.232 86:04
Carl Gunnarsson - - - - - 27 30 0.652 0.725 828:03
Matt Frattin - - - - - 10 6 0.935 0.561 214:00
Joe Colborne - - - - - 2 3 1.123 1.685 35:37
Jake Gardiner - - - - - 8 6 1.007 0.755 158:57

Leafs captain wasn’t as proficient at even strength, having scored seven goals on the power play. He partnered the most with Carl Gunnarsson upward of 800 even strength minutes, with neither contributing to each other’s goals. The appeared on the scoresheet together with both assists on a Clarke MacArthur power play goal. One would figure a top pairing on a team would share more points together.

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Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator for McKeen's Hockey. Follow him on twitter @KatsHockey or his blog Kats Krunch at mckeenshockey.com
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#1 Pension Plan Puppets
September 13 2012, 02:17PM
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It’s a flimsy argument, at best. I don’t believe Connolly is the man to line up there. That’s Bozak’s spot to lose barring further changes through acquisition.

It's not a flimsy argument. Connolly did better between Kessel and Lupul that Bozak did. The main reason Bozak was kept there was because he is not as useful as Connolly (which may not be saying much) away from the powerful duo.

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#2 Gus Katsaros
September 13 2012, 03:50PM
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@Pension Plan Puppets

I think as a matter of fit, Bozak - although not as offensively talented - did a much better job as their pivot than Connolly. We (McKeen's) didn't even write up Connolly in the guide because we felt his skillset has dropped off so much he isn't even worth taking in a fantasy league.

But he's signed to one more year at $4.5 million, the only reason he will get auditions there.

Bozak was the defensive conscious on that top line, getting back into the play to help out defensively - with the result allowing Kessel and Lupul do what they're supposed to do, get in deep, attach the net and score goals. (I plan on expanding on this point on my own blog at the new McKeen's site).

Bozak's footwork and speed through the neutral zone also pushes back defenses when all three players attack into the offensive zone, providing the space for Kessel to free wheel and create plays with an underrated passing ability.

On top of that, he added upper body strength to compete better along the boards and complimented Lupul's physical presence and boards work down low below the goal line, leaving Kessel to find soft, free ice.

I realize Bozak isn't well received in the Leafs fan community and that's fine, but I don't agree with that. I do agree he isn't a number one center, and that has to change at some point. But he's made significant improvements in his overall game (including a great face off proficiency) and provides enough skill and sense to make contributions on any club in the league.

The default as a number one center is miscast, and Connolly's offensive skillset should have been enough to steal the spot back from Bozak after he returned from preseason injury.

But he didn't. Add a lack of defensive awareness and a baffling dropoff from being a puck carrier, Connolly isn't taking that spot from Bozak.

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