Leafs 48-game Predictions
Gus Katsaros
January 15 2013 09:11AM
The season is less than a handful of days away from opening night, which means poolies have returned to their drafts. As a result, we updated our predictions at McKeen’s Hockey for the entire league.
I figured since we made these updates, it was only fitting to post the Leafs projections for the shortened season.
Originally posted the full season predictions here.
A few notes before we get into these.
Making predictions is mostly an effort in editorial, since the accuracy is clearly affected by that first injury, with effects downstream that affect others on the roster. I don’t take these numbers written in stone, but rather a guide somewhat, putting an expectation of the type of production, rather than trying to nail the production in every instance.
Methodology behind the predictions included both scouting and statistical – both conventional and advanced – analysis while sharing amongst the group and deciding on a consensus as we put together the annual yearbook.
Predicting for 82 games is difficult enough, but 48 games present a different challenge. It’s not simply a representation of 48 games of an 82 game schedule. It’s also not like taking the 82 game predictions and multiplying by a factor of .585 to get the representative 48-game results. It’s an almost new process taking the shortened season and limiting games to with the Conference.
As pure presentation, the following is the production of Leafs after surpassing 48 games played last season, not necessarily at the 48 game mark:
Player
GP
G
A
Pts
+/-
PIM
PPG
SOG
Joffrey Lupul
48
20
32
52
3
40
5
138
Phil Kessel
48
26
25
51
1
10
6
170
Mikhail Grabovski
48
18
21
39
8
14
4
106
Tyler Bozak
48
13
22
35
5
20
4
79
Clarke MacArthur
48
17
13
30
5
22
3
87
Dion Phaneuf
48
7
21
28
1
54
5
135
Tim Connolly
48
9
18
27
0
24
2
74
John-Michael Liles
48
4
18
22
-7
14
2
80
Cody Franson
48
4
16
20
-2
20
2
59
Nikolai Kulemin
48
5
13
18
2
6
1
70
Jake Gardiner
48
2
15
17
8
18
0
49
Joey Crabb
48
8
9
17
1
24
0
55
Carl Gunnarsson
48
2
13
15
4
16
0
62
Matthew Lombardi
48
7
7
14
-15
10
0
82
Luke Schenn
48
1
12
13
5
37
0
48
Matt Frattin
48
6
6
12
-1
16
0
75
Dave Steckel
48
7
1
8
-1
8
1
49
Mike Brown
48
2
2
4
-8
74
4
127
The line combinations for the original predictions mostly stayed the same.
The equivalent goals scored (or assists/points, etc) for an 82 game season multiplied by the 48 game factor (.585) for these results.
Goals
48GP
50
29
40
23
35
20
30
18
25
15
20
12
15
9
10
6
Phil Kessel leads the Leafs in goals and points in 2012-13, with something in the range of the typical 40-goal scorer, represented by the 23 goals.
First line teammate Joffrey Lupul pots 15 goals and both Mikhail Grabovski and newcomer James Van Riemsdyk end up with 13 goals.
The highest scoring defenseman is John-Michael Liles, with captain Dion Phaneuf not far behind.
| RK | NAME | AGE | P | GP | G | A | PTS | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Kessel | 24 | RW | 48 | 23 | 22 | 45 | 0.94 |
| 2 | Joffrey Lupul | 28 | LW | 44 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 0.80 |
| 3 | Mikhail Grabovski | 28 | C | 45 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 0.73 |
| 4 | James van Riemsdyk | 23 | LW | 44 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 0.68 |
| 5 | Tyler Bozak | 26 | C | 48 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0.60 |
| 6 | Clarke MacArthur | 27 | RW | 47 | 11 | 17 | 28 | 0.60 |
| 7 | Nikolai Kulemin | 26 | LW | 46 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0.59 |
| 8 | John-Michael Liles | 31 | D | 43 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 0.56 |
| 9 | Dion Phaneuf | 27 | D | 47 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 0.47 |
| 10 | Nazem Kadri | 21 | RW | 40 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 0.48 |
| 11 | Jake Gardiner | 22 | D | 35 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.51 |
| 12 | Tim Connolly | 32 | RW | 38 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 0.42 |
| 13 | Matt Frattin | 24 | LW | 39 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 0.38 |
| 14 | Cody Franson | 25 | D | 41 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 0.37 |
| 16 | Jay McClement | 29 | C | 48 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0.27 |
| 17 | Carl Gunnarsson | 25 | D | 44 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0.25 |
| 18 | Matthew Lombardi | 30 | C | 36 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.26 |
| 19 | David Steckel | 30 | C | 40 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.17 |
| 20 | Mike Komisarek | 30 | D | 38 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.16 |
The total is 152 goals, which equals 260 over an 82-game season. Post your own predictions below. We've also linked to the Puck Prospectus VUKOTA projections run back in October, but haven't pro-rated them for the 48-game season:
VUKOTA projections:
The equivalent to a 260 goal season? That would have been third in the NHL last season. Not a change in hell the Leafs do that.
Further, you're predicating the team to have the equivalent of 6 20-goal scorers and Tyler Bozak to pot the equivalent of 17. Nobody's scored like that since the 1990 Edmonton Oilers and I don't see a single HHOFer on the Leafs.
@SkinnyFish
The 2009-2010 Vancouver Canucks had 6x 25+ goal scorers and then right behind them were 2x 14 goal scorers.