Leafs 48-game Predictions

Gus Katsaros
January 15 2013 09:11AM

The season is less than a handful of days away from opening night, which means poolies have returned to their drafts. As a result, we updated our predictions at McKeen’s Hockey for the entire league.

I figured since we made these updates, it was only fitting to post the Leafs projections for the shortened season.

Originally posted the full season predictions here.

A few notes before we get into these.

Making predictions is mostly an effort in editorial, since the accuracy is clearly affected by that first injury, with effects downstream that affect others on the roster. I don’t take these numbers written in stone, but rather a guide somewhat, putting an expectation of the type of production, rather than trying to nail the production in every instance.

Methodology behind the predictions included both scouting and statistical – both conventional and advanced – analysis while sharing amongst the group and deciding on a consensus as we put together the annual yearbook.

Predicting for 82 games is difficult enough, but 48 games present a different challenge. It’s not simply a representation of 48 games of an 82 game schedule. It’s also not like taking the 82 game predictions and multiplying by a factor of .585 to get the representative 48-game results. It’s an almost new process taking the shortened season and limiting games to with the Conference.

As pure presentation, the following is the production of Leafs after surpassing 48 games played last season, not necessarily at the 48 game mark:

Player GP G A Pts +/- PIM PPG SOG
Joffrey Lupul 48 20 32 52 3 40 5 138
Phil Kessel 48 26 25 51 1 10 6 170
Mikhail Grabovski 48 18 21 39 8 14 4 106
Tyler Bozak 48 13 22 35 5 20 4 79
Clarke MacArthur 48 17 13 30 5 22 3 87
Dion Phaneuf 48 7 21 28 1 54 5 135
Tim Connolly 48 9 18 27 0 24 2 74
John-Michael Liles 48 4 18 22 -7 14 2 80
Cody Franson 48 4 16 20 -2 20 2 59
Nikolai Kulemin 48 5 13 18 2 6 1 70
Jake Gardiner 48 2 15 17 8 18 0 49
Joey Crabb 48 8 9 17 1 24 0 55
Carl Gunnarsson 48 2 13 15 4 16 0 62
Matthew Lombardi 48 7 7 14 -15 10 0 82
Luke Schenn 48 1 12 13 5 37 0 48
Matt Frattin 48 6 6 12 -1 16 0 75
Dave Steckel 48 7 1 8 -1 8 1 49
Mike Brown 48 2 2 4 -8 74 4 127

The line combinations for the original predictions mostly stayed the same.

The equivalent goals scored (or assists/points, etc) for an 82 game season multiplied by the 48 game factor (.585) for these results.

Goals 48GP
50 29
40 23
35 20
30 18
25 15
20 12
15 9
10 6

Phil Kessel leads the Leafs in goals and points in 2012-13, with something in the range of the typical 40-goal scorer, represented by the 23 goals.

First line teammate Joffrey Lupul pots 15 goals and both Mikhail Grabovski and newcomer James Van Riemsdyk end up with 13 goals.

The highest scoring defenseman is John-Michael Liles, with captain Dion Phaneuf not far behind.

RK NAME AGE P GP G A PTS PPG
1 Phil Kessel 24 RW 48 23 22 45 0.94
2 Joffrey Lupul 28 LW 44 15 20 35 0.80
3 Mikhail Grabovski 28 C 45 13 20 33 0.73
4 James van Riemsdyk 23 LW 44 13 17 30 0.68
5 Tyler Bozak 26 C 48 10 19 29 0.60
6 Clarke MacArthur 27 RW 47 11 17 28 0.60
7 Nikolai Kulemin 26 LW 46 12 15 27 0.59
8 John-Michael Liles 31 D 43 4 20 24 0.56
9 Dion Phaneuf 27 D 47 5 17 22 0.47
10 Nazem Kadri 21 RW 40 7 12 19 0.48
11 Jake Gardiner 22 D 35 4 14 18 0.51
12 Tim Connolly 32 RW 38 5 11 16 0.42
13 Matt Frattin 24 LW 39 9 6 15 0.38
14 Cody Franson 25 D 41 4 11 15 0.37
16 Jay McClement 29 C 48 5 8 13 0.27
17 Carl Gunnarsson 25 D 44 2 9 11 0.25
18 Matthew Lombardi 30 C 36 5 5 10 0.26
19 David Steckel 30 C 40 4 4 8 0.17
20 Mike Komisarek 30 D 38 1 5 6 0.16

 The total is 152 goals, which equals 260 over an 82-game season. Post your own predictions below. We've also linked to the Puck Prospectus VUKOTA projections run back in October, but haven't pro-rated them for the 48-game season:

VUKOTA projections:

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Gus Katsaros is the Pro Scouting Coordinator for McKeen's Hockey. Follow him on twitter @KatsHockey or his blog Kats Krunch at mckeenshockey.com
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#1 SkinnyFish
January 15 2013, 10:57PM
Trash it!
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The equivalent to a 260 goal season? That would have been third in the NHL last season. Not a change in hell the Leafs do that.

Further, you're predicating the team to have the equivalent of 6 20-goal scorers and Tyler Bozak to pot the equivalent of 17. Nobody's scored like that since the 1990 Edmonton Oilers and I don't see a single HHOFer on the Leafs.

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#2 Josh
January 16 2013, 09:10AM
Trash it!
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@SkinnyFish

The 2009-2010 Vancouver Canucks had 6x 25+ goal scorers and then right behind them were 2x 14 goal scorers.

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