LGD - Game 21: Islanders @ Leafs - Do you like fishsticks?

Cam Charron
November 19 2013 12:29PM

The New York Islanders came into a season with heightened expectations after a strong second half last season that saw them claim their first playoff berth since 2007. They made a few roster changes, adding Cal Clutterbuck, Peter Regin, and Pierre-Marc Bouchard to round out a strong top nine that includes John Tavares, Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner, Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey. Early on in the season, they traded unrestricted free agent-to-be Matt Moulson in exchange for unrestricted free agent-to-be Thomas Vanek.

Naturally, all these changes have resulted in an overwhelming amount of success on Long Island, yes?

Well, not exactly.

KEY STATISTICS

  Islanders Leafs
Corsi Close % 50.1% (14th) 43.3% (29th)
5v5 GF/60 2.33 (11th) 2.05 (19th)
5v5 GA/60 2.62 (25th) 1.85 (5th)
PDO 99.1 (21st) 102.8 (2nd)
     
  Islanders Leafs
5v4 GF/60 6.87 (14th) 8.12 (6th)
5v4 SF/60 52.3 (18th) 58.5 (8th)
4v5 GA/60 10.50 (29th) 5.40 (10th)
4v5 SA/60 51.4 (15th) 62.1 (26th)
Penalty Differential +9 (6th) -11 (26th)

via ExtraSkater and NHL 

I think most expected that while the team would struggle with goaltending, they'd at least do well in shot indicators, as they played very well in this regard in the second half of last season. In the statistical community, they were a popular pick not necessarily to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins, but control the tempo and give the No. 1 seed a scare. Had the Penguins not wised up and gone to Tomas Vokoun for the fifth game of the series, there's a chance that New York walks away with that series, only being eliminated in overtime of the sixth game after a very strong showing. Their Fenwick Close % in the playoffs was 52.4%.

Goaltending, though, has been an issue. Kevin Poulin had started three games in a row in place of Evgeni Nabokov, and Nabokov sustained an injury against Detroit in the Isles' last outing. Nabokov and Poulin have combined for an .895 save percentage, although Poulin's .909 mark is a little less ghastly. You can see above that the problems have mostly afflicted the Islanders on the penalty kill, where they're 15th best at preventing shots down a man but 29th best at preventing goals.

Otherwise, the offence has been fine. The Islanders find themselves at 8-10-3, good for 6th in the weak Metropolitan Division, and can leapfrog into a playoff berth with a win tonight. The Leafs, meanwhile, struggle against quality opponents, but they match up better against the Islanders, whose problems lie in goal and on defence. The Islanders scoring against Leafs goaltending, which has been about as rock solid as you can get in the NHL, should be a very interesting matchup. 

LEAFS LINEUP

One more game with Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak out of the lineup, so again, if you can play centre, please report to the Air Canada Centre and ask for David

James van Riemsdyk - Peter Holland - Phil Kessel
Joffrey Lupul - Trevor Smith - David Clarkson
Mason Raymond - Jay McClement - Nik Kulemin
Frazer McLaren - Jerred Smithson - Colton Orr

Dion Phaneuf - Carl Gunnarsson
Jake Gardiner - Cody Franson (?)
Morgan Rielly - Paul Ranger (?) 

Carter Ashton sits tonight, much to my dismay. Cody Franson this season is a 38.6% Corsi alongside Morgan Rielly, and even though it's been just 160 minutes, I think it's time to end that brief experiment. I don't think those two complement each other well, at least until Rielly learns to be a bit more patient with the puck inside his own zone. Of course, most players would be better with Jake Gardiner than with Rielly, I think it's wise to limit Rielly's minutes as he acquaints himself.

Up front, it's the same as we've seen. Peter Holland passed the eye test Saturday night, but a) it was just one game b) it was the Sabres c) that line's possession numbers weren't particularly good, but again d) refer back to a). 

Second line looks good. You have two of the best Leafs play-drivers this season on the wings and a skilled centreman in Trevor Smith who can shoot the puck, if anything. Not that I'd rather have Smith in there over Kadri, but it's nice having depth guys that can stickhandle, rather than spark plugs. Jerred Smithson, on the other hand, does not look good. The Leafs have been out-shot 13-25 with him on the ice this year, which should tell you something about the archaic nature of his role as well as his limited offensive ability. Granted, he's taken 49 of his 94 faceoffs in the defensive zone, but he's also taken 27 in the offensive end.

For visiting Islanders fans… Dion Phaneuf and Carl Gunnarsson will see a lot of John Tavares. Likely, so will the Holland line. Randy Carlyle deployed a dedicated checking line and did a lot of zone-matching last season, but he's decided to run straight power-on-power this season. Smithson will usually come in as an extra centreman on defensive zone draws and has taken over that role from Jay McClement this year. 

ISLANDERS LINEUP 

I'm annoyed when Carter Ashton gets sat. Islanders fans get straight frustrated when Michael Grabner, who is fourth in the league in goals per 60 minutes over the last three seasons, gets sat in favour of… well, take your pick

Brock Nelson - John Tavares - Kyle Okposo
Josh Bailey - Frans Nielsen - Colin McDonald
Pierre-Marc Bouchard - Peter Regin - Cal Clutterbuck
Eric Boulton - Casey Cizikas - Matt Martin

Andrew MacDonald - Travis Hamonic
Matt Donovan - Thomas Hickey
Aaron Ness - Matt Carkner

If the Islanders have an obvious weakness, it's on defence. Andrew MacDonald, a perpetual "most underrated player in the league" candidate is weighing down Travis Hamonic like a Rob Ford novelty paperweight (topical!). MacDonald has the team's worst Corsi among top nine and top four players at 43.8%, and if you look at MacDonald and Hamonic's WOWY, you'll note that Hamonic is a remarkable 58.7% in the 58 minutes he's played without MacDonald. 

Injuries have hurt the team. After dealing Moulson for Vanek, Vanek's been kept out of the lineup with a string of recurring injuries, and Lubomir Visnovsky has been out since mid-October with a concussion. Visnovsky and Thomas Hickey were part of the reason for the Islanders' excellent second half last season, and Hickey's done quite well in Visnovsky's absence, posting a team-high 54.4% Corsi rate.

Up front, swapping Grabner for Colin McDonald doesn't help the Islanders out in any way. While Grabner is scoreless in 12, he's been one of the most efficient scorers in the league over his young career, and "the rest of his career" is a much larger sample size than "12 games".

So the Leafs effectively neutralize one of the most dangerous threats on the Islanders and didn't have to do anything. lmao.

STARTING GOALTENDERS

(and an anecdote as useful as most goalie statistics)

Looks like Jonathan Bernier versus Kevin Poulin. My father's hometown is a small suburb outside of Montreal called Rosemère. Poulin is listed as being from Montreal, but you never quite know with suburbs where a player comes from. Some guides will list David Clarkson as being from Mimico as opposed to Toronto, but most people don't know where places like Mimico or Rosemère are. Several players are listed as being from *my* hometown of Vancouver, but they tend to be from surrounding areas like Tsawassen or Burnaby or wherever. Two NHLers to my knowledge, Milan Lucic and Evander Kane, are actually from Vancouver. The reason I bring this up is because a player on Team QMJHL last night against the Russians, Anthony DeLuca, is actually listed on Elite Prospects as being from Rosemère! He could be the son of somebody my family knew growing up! Or not.

QUESTION OF THE GAME

Randy Carlyle rarely uses his fourth line, while it's been argued that Jack Capuano overuses his. In the third period, will Carlyle continue to match his fourth line against Casey Cizikas' unit, or will he look across over to the other bench, scratch his head, and send out van Riemsdyk and Kessel if Matt Martin is on the ice for a faceoff late in a close game?

The Leafs and Islanders drop the puck at 7:00 Eastern on Sportsnet Ontario. 

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 WesternDP
November 19 2013, 01:47PM
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"Jerred Smithson, on the other hand, does not look good. The Leafs have been out-shot 13-25 with him on the ice this year, which should tell you something about the archaic nature of his role as well as his limited offensive ability. Granted, he's taken 49 of his 94 faceoffs in the defensive zone, but he's also taken 27 in the offensive end."

Smithson tries to win the faceoff and get off the ice safely so that a better offensive player or line can get on the ice. Of course the team will be outshot, he's not there to shoot.

This is the problem in using shots to evaulate a player's usefulness. Smithson is a face off specialist who comes in for 10 key face offs a game and wins about 55%. An absolutely elite guy like Patrice Bergeron is only slighlty better at 58%.

"he's also taken 27 in the offensive end."

That's because of all the injuries at center. If Bozak is healthy and Kadri is in, Smithson does not get many of of those offensive faceoffs. Expecting him to get more offensive shots just because he is in the offensive zone is unreasonable. Carlyle wants him to win and get off the ice so somebody like JVR can go stand in front of the net.

"Carter Ashton sits tonight, much to my dismay."

The Islanders are playing Martin, Boulton and Carkner, plus Cal Clutterbuck throws some dirty hits.

Without Fraser, one of Orr or McLaren is not enough to counteract 2 heavy weights (Bouton and Carkner) while Martin would be happy to get a more talented Clarkson to fight and take him off the ice. Based upon the Islanders lineup and last change, you have to play Orr and McLaren.

You don’t want a tough vs soft mismatch and Clutterbuck free to run around as he pleases and potentially injure Lupul or Kessel.

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#3 STAN
November 19 2013, 02:33PM
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I like Gardiner with Phaneuf, Gunnarson with Rielly and Franson alongside Ranger.

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#4 WesternDP
November 19 2013, 02:34PM
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"The instigator rule effectively renders McLaren's role useless, since all Clutterbuck has to do is not agree to fight, and he doesn't have to fight."

You are way over estimating the power of the instigator rule. What you say can't happen does. Just look at a recent notable incident:

Holtby didn't want to fight Emery but he still had to fight him ...and take lots of shots.

Kessel has to stick Scott, because Devane was in the box. If he wasn't injured, I would much rather have McLaren in that game and go and fight Scott. Kessel doesn't get a stick infraction and Clarkson doesn't get 10 games.

If Orr, McLaren or Clarkson wants to take an instigator against Clutterbuck, they can do it.

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#5 WesternDP
November 19 2013, 03:10PM
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"@WesternDP

1st point - Faceoff ability isn't particularly valuable, since an elite player like Bergeron only wins a marginal amount more than a terrible FO man."

Here, read some real reasearch done by people with pretty decent credentials.

This article summarizes work done by Tom Pasquali (now a graduate student in Statistics at Villanova University) and Jim Curro (now a graduate student in Statistics at Iowa State University) as part of their undergraduate honors theses and builds on the work done by previous St. Lawrence University undergraduate students Matt Generous (currently playing for Lukko Rauma in Finland) and Dennis Lock (now a PhD student in Statistics at Iowa State University).

"An analysis at the team level revealed that some teams have enjoyed greater success in winning faceoffs than others. In particular, for the seasons that we studied San Jose as a team gained approximately 6.1 goals per season as a result of their prowess winning faceoffs while Vancouver and Detroit gained approximately 4.4 and 4.1 goals per season, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Edmonton lost an average of 5.3 goals per season as a result of faceoffs. Note that this means that San Jose has earned approximately one additional win per season via winning faceoffs while Edmonton has lost a win per season because of their faceoff performance."

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

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#6 Jordan
November 19 2013, 04:27PM
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@WesternDP

Well done. Nice to see some research and a more reasonable opinion compared to the played out blogger narrative that faceoffs don't matter.

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#8 Jordan
November 20 2013, 07:38AM
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Cam Charron wrote:

One win. Whoopdee-flippin-doo.

And those are only the tangible benefits. Plenty of intangible benefits as well. I find it funny that lots of analytic based folks over focus on corsi as a proxy for puck possession but then willingly ignore the value of the one thing that guarantees to give a team possession of the puck (winning faceoffs). Is that not strange?

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#10 Bob
November 20 2013, 12:16PM
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Cam Charron wrote:

1st point - Faceoff ability isn't particularly valuable, since an elite player like Bergeron only wins a marginal amount more than a terrible FO man.

2nd point - McClement routinely started in the Ozone last season between McLaren and Orr. Despite being players that are good at chipping pucks out, or whatever Greg Cronin said about them, Randy Carlyle does not trust them with defensive zone faceoffs unless it's against the other team's 4th line.

3rd point - The Leafs have been on the receiving end of plenty of hits and cheap shots this season, just like any team, with McLaren in the lineup and without McLaren in the lineup. The instigator rule effectively renders McLaren's role useless, since all Clutterbuck has to do is not agree to fight, and he doesn't have to fight.

1st point - Faceoff ability isn't particularly valuable. Ok Cam.

2nd point - Carlyle doesn't want the fourth line on to take faceoffs in the defensive zone. Sounds like a no-brainer.

3rd pont - Yeah because that's really stopped people before right?

Someone get Cam a helmet to wear around before he hurts himself playing on the swings or something...

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