LGD - Game 17: Leafs @ Bruins - Comeback mention-free zone

Cam Charron
November 09 2013 10:23AM

I thought the Leafs weren't explicitly out-played last night. Despite getting out-shot by some outrageous number at even strength, this was like those games in the first week of the season against Ottawa and Montreal by having the raw powerplay advantage.

Obviously the big question is on James van Riemsdyk and him being switched to centre. I didn't think the breakout was particularly good for the first line last night and they didn't have a lot of transition opportunities. The Leafs didn't get their first two-on-one until overtime and Phil Kessel showed very little in the game save for his goal, which was outstanding, but he didn't get a lot of chances to attack the Devils line.

That's just in case you were wondering about my thoughts. At any rate, the Leafs won, which means Randy Carlyle has no reason to move Nazem Kadri up to the top line again. That said, Kadri's line with David Clarkson and Mason Raymond was the only one against the Devils that consistently generated offensive pressure. The Leafs are in Boston tonight, to play the team the Leafs played their five best games of the season last year in the playoffs. As far as I'm concerned, nothing else really matters about the matchup.

KEY STATISTICS

  Bruins Leafs
Corsi Close % 52.2% (10th) 41.9% (29th)
5v5 GF/60 2.39 (15th) 2.24 (18th)
5v5 GA/60 1.40 (2nd) 2.08 (10th)
PDO 103.8 (3rd) 103.2 (4th)
     
  Bruins Leafs
5v4 GF/60 6.31 (17th) 7.88 (6th)
5v4 SF/60 58.6 (9th) 56.5 (12th)
4v5 GA/60 6.06 (15th) 4.53 (7th)
4v5 SA/60 46.8 (6th) 61.7 (25th)
Penalty Differential -3 (17th) -8 (28th)

via Extra Skater and NHL.com

Toronto's gone a couple of games without scoring at even strength, so Boston's PDO is actually slightly higher than the Leafs' coming in. The third line with Chris Kelly, Carl Soderberg and Reilly Smith have benefit the most from that. Kelly is a +1 despite being on the ice for 64 shots for and 92 against. Playing in front of Tuukka Rask helps.

The Bruins remain a strong puck-possession team despite losing some important horses in the offseason. Their offence hasn't come together yet and Loui Eriksson hasn't been quite as dominant as we might have thought playing with Patrice Bergeron. He has just two goals in ten games this season, and his 25 shots on goal is pretty good, but not necessarily awe-inspiring. As a result, David Krejci's line, with Jarome Iginla and Milan Lucic, has taken over much of the minutes. They're drawing the top defensive pairings, while Bergeron is still playing against the top forwards.

It's an interesting matchup here. I made the point before the last playoff series, that the Leafs weaknesses play towards the Bruins' strengths, which make this a mis-match on paper. The fact that Toronto played the Bruins so well in last year's postseason (and that's not a mirage—the Leafs had a 48.3% Corsi Close against the Bruins between Games 2 and 7. That was their second best six-game stretch on the season in Corsi, and it came against a possession juggernaut).

MAPLE LEAFS LINEUP

Why would anything be different? Colt Knorr out again? We'll know at gametime.

Joffrey Lupul - James van Riemsdyk - Phil Kessel
Mason Raymond - Nazem Kadri - David Clarkson
Troy Bodie - Jay McClement - Nikolai Kulemin
Frazer McLaren - Jerred Smithson

Carl Gunnarsson - Dion Phaneuf
Jake Gardiner - Cody Franson
Mark Fraser - Paul Ranger
Morgan Rielly

The Leafs completely ignored the fourth line with Orr out of the lineup last night. The best line was clearly Kadri's, which was positive in possession (seriously, David Clarkson is good at this!) and attacking the Devils all night. They'll be a key tonight, as some of Boston's problems lie in defensive depth. The Leafs had their best offensive outings in the playoffs when Andrew Ference was out to suspension, and it appears as penance for crimes in a previous hockey season, the NHL has banished Ference to the Edmonton Oilers, so he will not be in the Bruins lineup.

BRUINS LINEUP

That Bruins line reads like so:

Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Jarome Iginla
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Loui Eriksson
Carl Soderberg - Chris Kelly - Reilly Smith
Daniel Paille - Gregory Campbell - Shawn Thornton

Zdeno Chara - Johnny Boychuk
Dennis Seidenberg - Dougie Hamilton
Torey Krug - Adam McQuaid

Limited depth, but their horses are exceptional. Bergeron, Chara and Rask are top five in the world at their respective positions, and most of Bergeron and Chara's plus value comes on the defensive side so the Bruins are tough to create shots against. At home, Claude Julien loves to play hard matches on top lines, so Bergeron will see a lot of Kessel tonight.

Serious question… how do Bruins fans even taunt Kessel now? I guess now that Hamilton is actually playing regular shifts, the trade doesn't look that bad in retrospect for Boston, but I find it funny that the Bruins squandered away Kessel in the first place, and then squandered away the guy they got with the lottery pick acquired in the trade.

That first line is putting up points… but Milan Lucic is rolling with some high percentages right now.

STARTING GOALIES

James Reimer versus Tuukka Rask. Don't you hate when you whip up a batch of pancakes on a Saturday morning and realize you forgot to buy maple syrup?

Also, Shoeless Joe's on King Street is hosting a "Sprots!" (seriously!) night presented by Wiser's Whisky. Hit up our pal Steve Dangle for details if you're interested. Puck drop is 7:00 on CBC. Never forget to StreakCred.

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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 leafstatskingpin
November 09 2013, 11:33AM
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I've been bang on all season with these advanced stats and I'm calling it once again - regression to the mean tonight against Boston. The leaf collapse starts tonight.

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#3 Hardly
November 09 2013, 01:10PM
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Cam Charron wrote:

Time to start banning users that mention "advanced stats" in the comments without addressing a specific point.

Actually, time to start banning people that don't sign up for accounts. It's mostly the same three or four people anyway posting under different usernames. I'd rather this be a space where people talk about hockey.

"Time to start banning people that don't sign up for accounts"

This seems kind of rediculous. Besides that guy sounds like he was just preaching what you've said the last year and a half

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#4 MaxPower417
November 09 2013, 01:14PM
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@Hardly

If your reading comprehension is that bad, I'm amazed you were able to decipher the directions on the KD box well enough to feed yourself.

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#5 Back in Black
November 09 2013, 01:42PM
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@Hardly

What Max was (ungently) trying to point out is that "leafstatskingpin" is either a sarcastic parody of Cam's writing or some sort of attempt at a false flag. It's not sincere, and it adds nothing to the conversation.

And yeah, Cam, I don't know what you need to do to improve the comment section but I'll sign up for an account if need be. It might at least cut down on the number of sock puppets and impersonations.

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#6 MaxPower417
November 09 2013, 01:11PM
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leafstatskingpin wrote:

I've been bang on all season with these advanced stats and I'm calling it once again - regression to the mean tonight against Boston. The leaf collapse starts tonight.

Obvious troll is obvious.

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#7 MaxPower417
November 09 2013, 01:12PM
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First game at TD gardens in years without even a meager "Thank you Kessel chant"? We will see.

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#9 Hardly
November 09 2013, 01:30PM
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MaxPower417 wrote:

If your reading comprehension is that bad, I'm amazed you were able to decipher the directions on the KD box well enough to feed yourself.

My reading comprehension... What are you talking about? I was just wondering why Cam wants to ban all the users who don't sign up. That's literally all I said.

The fact that you instantly attack people and try your hardest to asset your domince over a hockey website is pretty embarrassing for you... Do you have such serious underlying issues so you need to prove that to yourself that you're smarter then a random person? How sad. Why aren't these kind of people banned that just troll even if they have an account?

By the way I make a killer pot of KD.

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#10 MaxPower417
November 09 2013, 03:19PM
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@Hardly

My point was, that by saying that the obvious troll post was just "preaching what Cam has been saying", then obviously you haven't understood what Cam has been saying.

The other possibility of course is that you did understand the difference but took the opportunity to insult those you disagree with. If that's the case, you don't really have any moral highground to stand on.

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#11 Hardly
November 09 2013, 01:34PM
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@Cam Charron

Understandable, but don't you think that banning ALL anonymously is a bit much? Maybe just the ones who troll should be banned, sometimes I find the unregistered users do raise some good points...

Besides, it's not like making an account is going to completely stop the trolling or childish name calling... Look at Maxpower for an example.

At the end of the day it's obviously your decision, but I would think a bit harder on that one

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#12 CheezWhizard
November 09 2013, 01:37PM
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Would imagine Carter Ashton probably gets back in tonight over Troy Bodie.

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