PDO numbers by NHL team - Mar 25

Cam Charron
March 25 2013 12:45PM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.  

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Team Shot % Team Save % PDO Fenwick Close
Anaheim 11.00% 0.929 1.039 46.58%
Toronto 10.80% 0.918 1.026 45.34%
Chicago 9.40% 0.929 1.023 54.66%
Pittsburgh 10.20% 0.921 1.023 51.50%
Montreal 9.30% 0.927 1.020 53.79%
Tampa Bay 11.10% 0.906 1.017 44.50%
Carolina 8.80% 0.926 1.014 51.99%
Detroit 8.10% 0.933 1.014 51.52%
Vancouver 9.10% 0.920 1.011 53.20%
Washington 8.60% 0.924 1.010 45.95%
Minnesota 8.30% 0.924 1.007 47.42%
Ottawa 6.90% 0.937 1.006 50.40%
Boston 8.30% 0.922 1.005 54.51%
Dallas 9.20% 0.913 1.005 50.38%
Nashville 8.50% 0.920 1.005 46.95%
Buffalo 8.50% 0.919 1.004 43.55%
Columbus 8.30% 0.918 1.001 44.55%
Los Angeles 8.70% 0.911 0.998 57.38%
NY Rangers 6.70% 0.928 0.995 53.37%
Winnipeg 8.10% 0.908 0.989 50.35%
Colorado 7.80% 0.909 0.987 47.45%
St. Louis 8.70% 0.899 0.986 55.45%
Edmonton 6.30% 0.921 0.984 44.81%
Phoenix 7.50% 0.909 0.984 50.56%
San Jose 6.10% 0.922 0.983 51.76%
New Jersey 7.30% 0.909 0.982 53.48%
Calgary 8.90% 0.884 0.973 49.35%
Philadelphia 7.30% 0.899 0.972 50.25%
NY Islanders 8.20% 0.889 0.971 49.67%
Florida 6.90% 0.901 0.970 50.97%

Last week's numbers here.

  • The Montreal Canadiens dipped just under a percentage point in PDO thanks to their inability to beat Ryan Miller this week, resulting in a 3-2 overtime loss and a 2-1 regulation loss to one of the league's worst teams, despite out-shooting the Sabres 31-13 and 34-14. Those two wins also propelled Buffalo from a .999 PDO to a 1.004 PDO. The Sabres also had a shootout win over the Maple Leafs.
     
  • Vancouver's goaltending doesn't appear to be .913 anymore—the team won four games in the last week, with their goaltending jumping seven points. Cory Schneider was in net for each game.
     
  • Everything Pittsburgh is shooting is going in. To be fair, we do know that star players can expect higher individual shooting percentages than not-star players. Chris Kunitz is shooting 26.4%. Paul Martin is shooting 17.1%. Brandon Sutter is shooting 15.8%. Chris Kunitz is not a star player. Paul Martin is not a star player. Brandon Sutter is not a sprinkle.
     
  • Something about the Ducks two-game losing streak, which does not at all prove that the Ducks are "regressing" in any way. The Florida Panthers also have a two-game losing streak and they have a lower PDO than them all.
     
  • Florida is also somehow a plus-possession team. Did not see that coming.
     
  • Go home, Columbus. You're drunk.
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 antro
March 26 2013, 09:25AM
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What do you think, is Minnesota also drunk? Wouldn't be the first time.

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#2 mclotty
March 26 2013, 02:19PM
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Leaf's keep winning in spite of all these advanced stats. Carlyle is making a mockery of this.

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#3 Baalzamon
March 26 2013, 09:12PM
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mclotty wrote:

Leaf's keep winning in spite of all these advanced stats. Carlyle is making a mockery of this.

funny, Minnesota fans said the EXACT same thing about their team and Yeo last year. How did that turn out?

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#4 Pinch
March 27 2013, 01:56PM
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I don't know how hard this would be, but if you guys would make these sortable that would be amazing.

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#5 Ty
March 27 2013, 03:04PM
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Does Powerplay PDO work the same way as even strength PDO (does it regress towards 1000)? I read an article (I think it was on hockeyanalysis) that said that while power play Shot% is not predictable and regresses towards the mean, Power play Save% was more predictive.

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