PDO numbers by NHL team - April 1

Cam Charron
April 01 2013 11:44AM

PDO doesn't stand for anything, but that doesn't mean we can't learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman's explanation for 'PDO' and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they're producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they're producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.

For any daily updates you may be so inclined to find, Hockey Analysis compiles these numbersbehindthenet.ca has a page that offers a team's shooting percentage and a team's save percentage numbers, and we'll use those for weekly rankings here at NHLNumbers. Shooting percentage is the 17th column from the left on BTN's team shots page—the first one to say SPCT. It's cousin, team save percentage, is three columns to the right also saying SPCT. The team shooting percentage needs to be subtracted from 1000 to get the actual number.

I've also included team Fenwick Close % numbers, pulled from behindthenet.ca as well. Treat it as a proxy for the amount of time each team spends with the puck. Any team with a rate over 50% is pretty good and should make the playoffs in an 82-game season unless something goes horribly wrong.  

Here are the team PDO standings through games played Sunday night:

TEAM Fen Close % Team Shot % Team Save % PDO
Anaheim 47.25% 10.6% 0.927 1.033
Toronto 44.94% 11.0% 0.921 1.031
Pittsburgh 51.24% 9.9% 0.929 1.028
Chicago 54.40% 9.8% 0.928 1.026
Montreal 53.47% 9.2% 0.927 1.019
Tampa Bay 44.99% 11.2% 0.906 1.018
Vancouver 53.67% 8.9% 0.922 1.011
Carolina 51.54% 8.7% 0.923 1.010
Minnesota 48.32% 8.8% 0.921 1.009
Buffalo 43.94% 8.4% 0.921 1.005
Washington 46.87% 8.5% 0.920 1.005
Boston 55.03% 8.3% 0.921 1.004
Columbus 44.52% 8.8% 0.916 1.004
Ottawa 49.91% 6.8% 0.936 1.004
Nashville 47.11% 8.5% 0.918 1.003
Dallas 48.85% 9.3% 0.909 1.002
Detroit 51.73% 7.5% 0.926 1.001
Los Angeles 58.60% 8.8% 0.909 0.997
Edmonton 44.72% 7.3% 0.923 0.996
NY Rangers 53.52% 6.6% 0.928 0.994
Phoenix 50.09% 8.1% 0.912 0.993
San Jose 51.54% 6.5% 0.925 0.990
Winnipeg 50.27% 7.8% 0.910 0.988
Colorado 47.42% 7.4% 0.907 0.981
New Jersey 53.67% 7.4% 0.906 0.980
St. Louis 54.46% 8.2% 0.897 0.979
Calgary 48.96% 9.0% 0.884 0.974
Philadelphia 48.92% 7.3% 0.901 0.974
NY Islanders 49.70% 8.1% 0.892 0.973
Florida 51.62% 6.7% 0.902 0.969

Here are PDO numbers from last week.

Thoughts:

  • The Ducks save percentage has come back to normal, but their shooting rate is still out there. Mind you, Anaheim have now lost five of six. Lucky devils get to play three straight against Dallas before the streak becomes too noticeable, however.
     
  • Can LA catch Anaheim? Eight points back with 11 to play, it's not impossible. The Kings are still the best team in hockey by virtually every predictive measure with the exception of astrology. Astrology, the study of forming conclusions about the future by stargazing, selects the Penguins to win the Stanley Cup.
     
  • I wonder what the Penguins shoot like when Crosby is out of the lineup. There's a good project for me at some point this week.
     
  • Florida is a plus-possession team. They have been debilitated by injuries and have absolutely no goaltending. Nobody's scoring goals for them. They aren't this bad. They're going to get a high pick, and likely waste it because the Florida Panthers, if history is any judge, are not a particularly well-run hockey team compared to the other teams in the league.
     
  • Actually four of the league's lowest PDO teams I would say are among the bottom as far as "well-run" teams go. But then you see St. Louis there and go "hmm, they're a good team". No goaltending this year apparently but despite a crazy-low PDO, they have high possession numbers and should sliiiide into the playoffs as a low seed.
     
  • Can anybody think of a recent team that's been one of the top possession teams in the league that made the playoffs as an 8-seed on the last weekend? Tell me how that wound up.
     
  • Columbus are still drunk. They'll probably fizzle out of this whatever run they're on and not make the playoffs. Sure is funny to hear people talk about how good Columbus is. Them and Anaheim. Quick: Name three former Sergei Fedorov teams in playoff contention right now.
     
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Cam Charron is a BC hockey fan that writes about hockey on many different websites including this one.
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#1 Eric T.
April 01 2013, 11:50AM
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The Kings are still the best team in hockey by virtually every predictive measure with the exception of astrology.

The third edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:
Rank	Move	Team	NHLNShare
1	-	Chicago Blackhawks	2.11
2	-	Boston Bruins	        2.57
3	+5	St. Louis Blues	        4.98
4	-1	Montreal Canadiens	5.09
5	-1	Pittsburgh Penguins	5.72
6	-	Anaheim Ducks	        5.89
7	+2	Ottawa Senators	        6.18
8	-3	Los Angeles Kings	7.01
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#2 .
April 01 2013, 11:54AM
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Are the %s at even strength?

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#4 Peter Hassett
April 01 2013, 12:19PM
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"the Florida Panthers, if history is any judge, are not a particularly well-run hockey team"

I thought history had very low predictive value.

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#5 Amelia
April 01 2013, 01:13PM
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As an overly-anxious Blues fans, your PDO numbers are basically the only thing keeping me from completely freaking out about playoff chances. On that note, what do you think of Jordan Leopold? Cheaper than Jay Bouwmeester, certainly...

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#7 Erik
April 01 2013, 03:38PM
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Feds teams in contention. Carolina, Columbus, CSKA Moscow, and Washington.

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#8 Tony
April 01 2013, 07:18PM
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does anyone know of a site that lets you look at fenwick close % each month of the season. or is behind the net the only place to get the stat?

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#9 Ty
April 01 2013, 09:36PM
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I asked this before in the previous article last week, but it wasn't answered:

Does Powerplay PDO work the same way as even strength PDO (does it regress towards 1000)? I read an article (I think it was on hockeyanalysis) that said that while power play Shot% is not predictable and regresses towards the mean, Power play Save% was more predictive of actual talent level.

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#10 KadrupulTheScoring
April 01 2013, 11:57PM
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Would you say the Leafs are 'drunk' too? Do you think they have any shot at making it out of the first round (given that it's unlikely they'll be falling out of contention at this point)?

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#11 Ralph
April 01 2013, 11:59PM
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@Ty

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/04/repeatability-of-special-teams.html

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#12 Ty
April 02 2013, 11:59AM
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Ralph: Thank you very much for the link. ObjectiveNHL is where I remember it from.

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#13 Matt
April 02 2013, 01:48PM
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Blows my mind that most of the good teams are 52-54% in Fenwick Close (Boston is second-highest at 55%), and Los Angeles is almost 59%. That's absurd!

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#14 dan
April 04 2013, 11:30PM
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Eric T. wrote:
The Kings are still the best team in hockey by virtually every predictive measure with the exception of astrology.

The third edition of the NHLNumbers Predictive Power Rankings:
Rank	Move	Team	NHLNShare
1	-	Chicago Blackhawks	2.11
2	-	Boston Bruins	        2.57
3	+5	St. Louis Blues	        4.98
4	-1	Montreal Canadiens	5.09
5	-1	Pittsburgh Penguins	5.72
6	-	Anaheim Ducks	        5.89
7	+2	Ottawa Senators	        6.18
8	-3	Los Angeles Kings	7.01

* there is simply no chance MTL& ANA are a better team than LA & Van...

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#15 SmellOfVictory
April 05 2013, 02:03PM
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I know individual PDO can be slightly variable based on player ability (elite guys are going to be slightly higher, generally); I'm curious as to whether that might translate at all on a team level. If you've got an elite goaltender, that's evidently a possibility, but in terms of shooting, the Penguins have two lines with what I'd call skill-driven above average on-ice SH%; might it not follow that some of their PDO (however small the amount) is actually repeatable?

Just thinking in terms of comparing them to the Kings; the Kings don't have any forwards who appear (even superficially) offensively elite, outside of Kopitar, perhaps. Average shooting team, though, as one would expect. The Penguins, on the other hand, have two players who spend a rough total of 1/2-2/3 of a given game on the ice, and both tend to bolster their lines on-ice SH% (Crosby to a much greater extent than Malkin, admittedly). I'd argue that might count as more than just an astrological predictive measure, but I do like to argue lost causes on occasion.

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