I Was Wrong About Tyler Bozak

DragLikePull
November 08 2016 07:36AM

Over the past four or five seasons, I've been a pretty harsh critic of Tyler Bozak.  I've frequently argued that he was a poor player propped up by playing with one of the league's most dynamic wingers, and that if it weren't for Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak would score very few points in the National Hockey League.

Despite my criticisms, Bozak has continued to put up points since Kessel was traded to the Penguins, and I think it's time for a re-assessment of Bozak's play.  Let's take a look at how we got to here, and what the evidence seems to say today.

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How Unusual Was Frederik Andersen's Cold Streak?

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October 31 2016 07:00AM

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a big bet on Frederik Andersen this summer when they acquired him for Jonathan Bernier and two high draft picks, then proceeded to sign Andersen to a long-term contract extension.  When the new starter struggled to start the season, fans and media alike were concerned about what was going on with the Leafs' starting goalie.  The situation culminated in a tense exchange between a reporter and Mike Babcock earlier this week:

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Are Quality Starts A Repeatable Skill?

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October 27 2016 08:31AM

There aren't nearly as many statistics available to evaluate goalies as there are to evaluate forwards and defencemen.  That's true whether you're talking about the standard boxcar stats that newspapers and NHL.com have reported for years, or whether you're referring to the newer breed of numbers often called "analytics" or "advanced stats".  But I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge that there are a few more ways to look at goalies than there were a few years ago.  A couple of weeks ago I talked about dividing saves into "danger zones" based on their distance from the net.  This time I'm going to take a look at Quality Starts.

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A List Of 10 People Who Did Not Score 4 Goals As Quickly As Auston Matthews

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October 17 2016 07:00AM

There was a lot of excitement in Leafs Nation heading into the 2016-17 NHL season, with a crop of top prospects that included 1st overall pick Auston Matthews, Memorial Cup MVP Mitch Marner, and Swedish wunderkind William Nylander.  It took just one game for that excitement to pay off when Matthews put in an incredible four goal performance, setting an NHL record as the only player to score four times in their NHL debut.  Matthews' performance is even more impressive when you realise that only one player (Sam Bennett) had a 4-goal game last year, and only 13 players have matched that total in the past five seasons.

Scoring four goals in one game is quite rare; doing it in your first NHL game even moreso.  But how long does it normally take for a star to score their first four career goals?  For that matter, how long does it take someone who isn't as skilled as most first overall picks?  Let's delve into some history and find out.

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Are Bigger Goalies Better At Stopping Medium Or Low Danger Shots?

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October 10 2016 07:00AM

The biggest roster move the Leafs made this summer was acquiring Frederik Andersen from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for 30th overall, a 2017 second round draft pick, and Jonathan Bernier.  One of the things that jumps out about Andersen is his size.  At 6'4" and 230 pounds, he's one of the NHL's larger goalies, both in terms of height and width.  Lamoriello said that was one of the things the Leafs liked about Andersen: "He gives us size which today is a necessity the way the game is played."  Lou followed up by adding that, "his athleticism is exceptional."

While goaltending analysis has a lot of room to grow, we have a couple of extra tools available today than we did a few years ago.  One of the things we can do is splitting up the shots a goalie faces based on "danger zones".  If we divide shots into low, medium, and high danger zones (far, medium, and close distance, respectively), it turns out that whether low or medium danger shots become goals is almost entirely random.  It seems to be the case that the only shots where differences in goaltender talent matter much are high danger shots.

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