November 28 2011 11:37PM
When the Leafs walked out of Dallas with a 4-3 shootout win, it was apparent to anyone who watched the game that the boys from Toronto were lucky to walk away with one point, let alone two.
Jonas Gustavsson was good enough and lucky enough to hold the fort, and a couple players other than Phil Kessel managed to pot three goals on Kari Lehtonen.
The Leafs were out-chanced 16-8 at even strength, and were hanging on by their teeth in the third, when they were out-chanced 7-2.
This was the worst game - in terms of scoring chance differential - for the Lupul-Bozak-Kessel line by a wide margin. Lupul was out-chanced 12-1, Bozak 10-1, and Kessel 8-1. Woof. Future teams should look to this game as a way to beat the Kessel line.
The list of Leafs to out-chane their opponents at even strength is short: Connolly (3-0), Kulemin (3-1), MacArthur (3-1), Crabb (4-2), and Gunnarsson (2-1), who didn't finish the game.
More, after the jump.
November 28 2011 01:10PM
Sometimes you don't beat an opponent so much as you annihalate every remaining speck of their competitive spirit.
23-12 Toronto. That was the final tally of scoring chances when the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-1. Even strength only marginally improved that number for the Lightning, bringing the totals down to 17-10, as the Leafs had a number of power play chances.
Read on after the jump for the charts.
November 26 2011 01:00PM
When Toronto played in Carolina last week and only lost 3-2, they had only Ben Scrivens and Phil Kessel to thank. Sure, it was a regulation loss, and at the end of the season, a 6-0 loss is worth the same number of points as 3-2 loss, but it's a whole lot easier on us fans.
The second period was the worst I have yet to track, with the Hurricanes out-chacing the Leafs 11-0, despite the fact that the Canes already held a 1-0 lead. In fact, including the two chances the Canes had at the end of the first, there was a 13-0 streak against the Leafs.
That the Leafs managed to stay out of the box for large stretches of the game was probably a big factor, as they only gave up two 5-on-4 advantages, and the Hurricanes capitalized on one of them. (Note that their PP goal came in the second, but was not technically considered a chance.)
The only Leaf to out-chance his opponents at even strength? Cody Franson.
I expect the picture to look somewhat rosier when I look at the next game, the Leafs' 7-1 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
One other note I will add is that I have begun tracking what type of chances are occurring. Follow me over the jump for a list of scoring chance types.
November 21 2011 11:01PM
Talk about score effects. The Leafs out chanced the Capitals 9-1 in the first period, and 12-3 through the first 30 minutes of the game, but then went on to be out-chanced 17-5 for the remainder of the game, 12-2 in the third. The totals were 20-17 for Washington, and 15-11 for Washington at even strength. Special teams were obviously important in this game.
Probably the most dangerous stretch for Washington came in the 3rd period between 7:27 and 6:38 remaining, when Alexander Semin had 5 consecutive chances. This was, without a doubt, Jonas Gustavsson's best game of the season.
Individual numbers didn't look so good for several Leafs, as only David Steckel, John-Michael Liles, Matt Frattin, and Joey Crabb managed to out-chance their opponents at even strength. It was a particularly tough night for Colton Orr, Jake Gardiner, Nikolai Kulemin, or Pascal Dupuis, as each of them had a -4 differential at EV.
Read on for the tables.
November 21 2011 10:14AM
The Leafs probably deserved better than the 4-1 loss to Nashville. They played a relatively quiet road game, and wound up out-chancing their opponents 12-7 overall, and 8-6 at even strength. Such a low tally is remarkable, but then, the Predators are known for their defensive stye of play, and the Leafs definitely played a conservative game, so after re-watching it, the numbers don't come as a surprise.
The only three Leafs to be out-chanced at EV were Jake Gardiner, Nikolai Kulemin, and Joffrey Lupul. The penalty kill had at least 4 good chances, and the Leafs managed to only give up 1 on the PK. Not bad.
One thing I noticed while compiling these numbers is that although the Leafs had a number of shots from close in, the Predators, like the Bruins and many other defensively-oriented teams, clear pucks (often from rebounds) out of the slot quickly and efficiently, preventing the Leafs from creating too much havoc around the net.
Follow me over the jump for the numbers.