This isn't pretty. I'm also only doing this because @67sound asked me to, but I looked at the Leafs with and without Colby Armstrong over the last two seasons.

First, what is Colby Armstrong? He was an average scorer before coming to Toronto, busted up by a pretty favourable shooting percentage in Atlanta:

	G/82	SOG/GP	Sh%
Pittsburgh	16.8	1.74	11.7%
Atlanta	18.8	1.51	15.1%
Toronto	9.3	1.05	10.8%
Career	16.3	1.52	13.0%

Brian Burke signed Colby Armstrong after his stint in Atlanta that ended after the 2010 season for $9M over 3 years. I don't begrudge Armstrong for this. For sure the guy is a good, honest player who worked hard to get to where he's at, and it isn't on him for accepting a suitcase full of money.

What's also interesting is his underlying numbers, which were surprisingly high:

	Corsi Rel	Cor Rel QoC	Ozone %
2008	8.1	0.956	39.1
2009	10.7	0.691	40.3
2010	0.9	0.603	47.1

He played some tough minutes, and managed to do better than his teammates. His Corsi/ON was slightly below zero, but that's because he played on some pretty bad teams. His first season in Toronto was innocuous enough: he had a 2.1 Corsi Rel in slightly easier minutes (.321 Corsi Rel QoC and a 46% Ozone rate) but this last season was a disaster. If you understand underlying numbers by now, you don't need to be told twice.

The real issue is that Armstrong had a modest play-driving and scoring ability, but he completely lost that last year. He stopped moving the puck forward, he stopped creating and generating shots, and he does nothing that makes his teammates better.

Using the timeonice scripts from here and here, I've sussed out how the Leafs did with Armstrong on the ice and off the ice in the last two seasons with the score tied:

	GF	GA	SF	SA	MF	MA	BF	BA	Fen%	Cor%
With Colby	15	16	127	161	56	83	98	90	43.2%	45.8%
Without Colby	94	104	1048	1196	483	610	661	638	46.0%	47.3%

We know how much I like Fenwick Tied as an indicator of future success, and the Leafs were nearly 3 percentage points better with Colby off the ice. But that could be determined by tough minutes, with Armstrong creating opportunities for the Leafs to pick up the slack.

So using these pages, I sussed out the overall games that Armstrong missed. The results are more striking:

	GF	GA	SF	SA	MF	MA	BF	BA	Fen%	Cor%
With Colby	55	67	553	702	267	376	394	396	43.3%	45.2%
Without Colby	54	53	622	655	272	317	365	332	48.0%	49.2%

With Colby Armstrong in the lineup, the Leafs had a Fenwick Tied rate of .433 over the last two seasons. Without, they were .480. That's not necessarily good, but it's a pretty big gap. Could be coincidence, who knows, but the Leafs have been decidedly a better team without Armstrong than with.

Because in Atlanta... with Armstrong on the ice and not:

	GF	GA	SF	SA	MF	MA	BF	BA	Fen%	Cor%
With Colby	27	26	352	409	132	134	167	173	47.3%	47.7%
Without Colby	110	157	1435	1786	530	665	653	818	44.3%	44.3%

And with Armstrong in the lineup (since Armstrong only missed three games in 2009 and 2010, I used the Thrashers record from before the trade that brought him over in 2008 as reference, but it didn't make a huge negative difference):

	GF	GA	SF	SA	MF	MA	BF	BA	Fen%	Cor%
With Colby	97	133	1294	1543	500	521	585	705	46.3%	46.0%
Without Colby	40	50	493	652	162	278	235	286	41.5%	42.3%

So, causes? What caused a player with pretty good possession statistics in Atlanta to completely fall off the map in the last two seasons? System? Trust? Role? A flaw in advanced statistics when players move teams? Or was it just all the injuries that made it a lot tougher on Colby than we think?

I'd like to hear theories, and whether we can trust the guy to stay healthy for an entire season to regain the form he displayed in Atlanta.

Unlike the NHL post-season, the AHL Western Conference hasn’t brought a lot of surprises to the table so far. The teams who made it to the Calder Cup semifinals finished fittingly first and second in the regular season – the Oklahoma City Barons and Toronto Marlies.

They split the regular season series and even the scoring was tied as each team managed to score 3 goals. Interestingly enough, the Marlies and Barons are the only two teams in the AHL playoffs that haven’t lost a game on the road. Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know about the series.

Regular Season Series

08/11/2011 Toronto 1-3 Oklahoma City

06/01/2012 Oklahoma City 0 - 2 Toronto

Series Schedule

• Game 1 - Thurs., May 17 - Toronto at Oklahoma City, 8:00
• Game 2 - Fri., May 18 - Toronto at Oklahoma City, 8:00
• Game 3 - Mon., May 21 - Oklahoma City at Toronto, 3:00
• Game 4 - Wed., May 23 - Oklahoma City at Toronto, 7:00
• *Game 5 - Fri., May 25 - Oklahoma City at Toronto, 7:00
• *Game 6 - Mon., May 28 - Toronto at Oklahoma City, 8:00
• *Game 7 - Wed., May 30 - Toronto at Oklahoma City, 8:00

*if necessary

What do you need to know about the Oklahoma City Barons?

- The Barons finished the regular season 1st in the AHL Western Conference with 99 points and 45 wins in 76 games. The Marlies were 3 points behind them.

- In the first round the Barons defeated the Houston Aeros in four games (3-1). After that they downed the San Antonio Rampage in five games (4-1). Their record is an impressive 7-2 so far.

- Oklahoma City won 3 games in overtime this post-season

- Chris VandeVelde scored game-winning goals in games 3 and 4 in the series against the Rampage, thus becoming 8th player in the league’s history to score overtime goals in the same series. He is also the only AHL player to score game-winning goals in overtime in two play-off games in a row.

- Barons’ goalie Yann Danis is currently third in the league in GAA with 2.02

- Mark Arcobello is the Barons’ best scorer with 4 goals and 7 assists. That’s good enough for fifth in the league.

- Right winger Tyler Pitlick is second in the league among rookies in assists with 5 and 4th in scoring with 7 points.

- Oklahoma City scored 7 times in 37 powerplay attempts this post-season and they are 7th in league in this department with 18.9%.

- Barons are 10th in the league in penalty-killing with 78.8%. They killed off 7 shorthanded situations out of 33.

- Former 10th overall pick in 2009, Magnus Paajarvi, who played 121 games in the NHL (17+25=42 points), has just a single goal and five assists in 9 games.

What do you need to know about the Toronto Marlies?

- Toronto has a clear advantage in penalty-killing in this series. In fact, they are currently tops in the league having allowed only one marker in 36 shorthanded situations (97.2%)

- In contrast, the Marlies powerplay is only 12th in the league in the post-season at 11.1%. They have scored 4 goals on 36 attempts.

- Mike Zigomanis is tied for 2nd in the league with 3 powerplay goals

- The Marlies record in the post-season is 7-1. Toronto is the only team in the play-offs with only a single loss.

- Matt Frattin and Jerry D’Amigo are tied for 1st in the league with 2 game-winning goals each.

- Jerry D’Amigo is tied for 1st in the play-offs in goals (6) with Alexandre Picard of the Norfolk Admirals and Colin McDonald of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. However, he has played just 8 games while Picard and McDonald have seen 10 and 12 games respectively.

- Marlies goalie Ben Scrivens is 1st in the league with 94.4 save percentage.

Time heals all wounds. Almost 20 years ago at this time the LA Kings were on quite a Cup drive. Sound familiar? They were taking out Canadian teams as if they were the Phoenix Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche and Gary Bettman all rolled into one. The Kings defeated the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks before hunkering down for seven games with the Leafs. We all know what happened, but those suffering from PTSD or ignorance can catch up here:

This was the closest the Leafs would be to the Stanley Cup until… well, we’re still waiting. Now the LA Kings are gliding through their Western Conference final series once again, the closest they’ve been to the Cup themselves since 1993. It all feels a little familiar, so for Leafs fans who have the sour taste of Gretzky’s stick in their mouth, here’s who you can hope for guilt-free as a Maple Leaf fan or sympathizer.

The New York Rangers:

The Rangers come with pre-made Original Six rivalry baggage. Plus, they’ve defeated the Leafs five of eight meetings in the playoffs. But their last playoff matchup with the Leafs was in 1971 and five of the last eight were before 1950. Is it still too soon for you to love the Rangers?

The New Jersey Devils:

The Devils have only met the Leafs in the playoffs twice, once in 2000 and again in 2001. Both times were in the conference semi-finals and both series went to at least six games. There was bad blood, and there was Scott Stevens, but this still pales in comparison to the Kings-led heartbreak of ’93. These back-to-back eliminations stirred some bad blood between the Devils and Leafs, but it’s what the Devils did to the Leafs in the final regular season game in 2007 that sticks in the memory most.

The post-lockout Leafs finished the year playing the Montreal Canadiens at home with a come-from-behind win in the third period after switching out goalie Andrew Raycroft in the second period to help the Leafs determine their own destiny. Half the work was done, now all the Leafs needed was the New Jersey Devils to defeat the New York Islanders to prevent that team from leapfrogging the Leafs out of the post-season. It should have been as simple a task then as it would be now, but the Devils opted to give Martin Brodeur a rest before his playoff push and started goaltender (and future short-lived Leaf) Scott Clemmensen, who had only played 24 games in three seasons before getting just his fourth start of the year that night.

The Islanders’ Richard Park netted two goals early, giving them the lead early. The Devils made it interesting in the third period with John Madden goals to send it to overtime. OT came and went without a deciding goal so it was sent to a relatively new and highly-scrutinized form of tie breaker, the shootout. Here’s what happened:

The _______ Coyotes:

The Coyotes have made the playoffs eight of their 15 years as a franchise. In the last 15 years the Leafs have made the playoffs six times and not once have they played the Western Conference desert dogs, go figure. If there was ever a team could not even be tangentially related to the Leafs playoff disappointments of yesteryear, it is the Phoenix Coyotes. Maybe when they move to Markham next year there will be more cause for tension and angst, but for now the team with the most Canadians of any still-active in these playoffs is your guaranteed Leaf-friendly team to cheer for.

Shame about those Kings.

I won't lie, this article was brought about by two others I just read this morning: Should the Oilers go after Jordin Tootoo? by Jonathan Willis at Oilers Nation, and Why GMs Overpay for Bottom Six Players by the Leafs Nation's own Danny Gray.

Before you close your browser thinking "this idiot is going to suggest Tootoo to (to to to) the Leafs", don't! I will do no such thing. By the end of the Oilers Nation piece, where Willis pointed out Tootoo's crazy playoff tirade, I was quite positive that I wanted that guy as far away from the Leafs as possible. Not that I really care about players who say dumb things, but Tootoo really seems like a bit of a risk when you don't need to take one for a player of his skill level.

If Alex Semin said that stuff, I'd just look at highlights of him taking wristshots and all would be forgiven. But Tootoo? Too-shitty.

Willis did point out, however, that Tambellini and the Oilers may be seeking a "character guy":

"Tambellini’s been clear all down the line that he’s looking for a certain type of player, character-wise, and I’m not sure that Tootoo fits."

This got me to thinking about Colby Armstrong, and how, perhaps, he might fit with the Oilers. It didn't really end well, and now here we are

It seems like a perfect scenario, right? Tambellini is a bad GM and may want a guy like Armstrong who's Mr. Character, Burke needs to unload a 3 million dollar loaf of bread, so let's sign the papers.

This would probably make sense if Burke and Kevin Lowe didn't almost set up WrestleMania in a woodshed or whatever. But since that bridge is likely burned (or punched in to pieces), it's unlikely these two teams would lock up for a trade.

I haven't taken a hard look at Edmonton's situation, so this type of move may not be realistic for them since they don't want to take on much money to fill out a fourth line, and they certainly don't want to give up assets for it. I suppose the only way it seems reasonable is if they see Armstrong (as we did) as a versatile player who can bounce around the lineup. I'm sure someone with extensive Oilers-knowledge will let me know if that isn't the type of player they're looking for, despite the character factor. Either way, between their weird lineup and the Lowe/Burke feud, we can probably kibosh the Armstrong to Edmonton rumors before they start.

We can't just give up that easy though, this is a fanbase that ran Bryan McCabe out of town. It can't be too difficult to get Armstrong on a flight out before October. And maybe Lombardi too.

It would probably be nice to find a team in the same mindset that the Capitals were in when they gave Joel Ward 3 million dollars per season last summer. And that's probably a bit much to be honest - Armstrong only has a year left, Ward signed for four.

There are other clubs around who have third line-type players with contracts expiring this summer that could also be potential targets. I'd use "suitors" but I don't think it really applies here.

Any teams that you think could express interest in Armstrong?

For discussion's sake, I took a really quick look at CapGeek and noticed that Anaheim have both Blake (4M) and Hagman (1.5M) off the books this summer. They've bailed Burke out in the past, so there's that. They want to save cash for their big players going to UFA next summer, but again, only a year left for Armstrong so that doesn't really matter.

Langenbrunner's 2.75 million is expiring in St. Louis, so I guess it's possible that they take a look.

These guys I've mentioned grabbed about 20-30 points each this past season, which is about where Armstrong is supposed to be if he plays a good chunk of the season.

I guess what scares me the most isn't that there won't be interest in Armstrong, more so that Burke really doesn't want to trade him and clear out the cap space (loyalty and "good in the room" and stuff like that). You might think "is this really worth worrying about?" Well yes, because as everyone knows Armstrong will take a spot from a Marlies player who can do just as good of a job (who couldn't, really?) next season, and he'll make 3 million dollars doing so.

Three million that could have went towards a bid on Parise, Semin, Suter, whoever. Three million that could have allowed a trade for help in net. The Leafs' bottom six is now a pit of poorly spent money and it probably doesn't need to be.

Email ryanfancey@gmail.com and follow on twitter @rfancey3

Armstrong was somehow injured on this play. 

A lot of the off season moves in the NHL are about “keeping up with the Joneses”. One of the first things a new GM, or a team with a new owner does is open up the wallet and dole out some cash to UFAs on July 1. This sends a variety of messages. It tells their owner and fans they’ll do what it takes to make the team better. It tells opposing GMs that their team will be tougher to play against next year. And it tells me that they may have fallen victim to the Prius Effect.

Social Signaling

The Prius Effect is a form of Conspicuous Consumption identified by Steven and Alison Sexton. Conspicuous Consumption has been around forever, but was first called such by the economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in the 19th Century. Veblen said that: “in order to gain and hold the esteem of man it is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. The wealth or power must be put in evidence, for esteem is awarded only on evidence.” Basically, if you got it, flaunt it. We buy things like fancy cars, big screen TVs, and nice clothes not just to enjoy them, but to show to our peers that we can afford them. We want people to notice all of our fancy stuff.  

Recently, thanks to the heightened importance of environmental concerns among certain portions of the population, conspicuous consumption has become frowned upon. For many people buying unnecessary luxury goods doesn’t carry the same cache it once did. That doesn’t mean we still can’t buy it, according to Sexton & Sexton: “evolving social norms suggest esteem can be attained through the demonstration of certain kinds of austerity–specifically austerity that minimizes the environmental impact of consumption.” What better way to show that you’re green than by buying a hybrid vehicle?

While there are a number of types of hybrid cars available in North America, the Toyota Prius is the most iconic. When people think hybrid car, they think Prius. The reason they dubbed it the “Prius Effect” is that they found that people who lived in more environmentally conscious neighborhoods were more likely to purchase a Prius over other similarly eco-friendly vehicles. They were even willing “to pay up to several thousand dollars to signal their environmental bona fides through their car choices.”

Keeping up with the Sathers

We can apply this logic to NHL GMs. When GMs are looking at players to add they often focus too much on their reputation and not enough on their actual statistics. When Buffalo signed Ville Leino until forever, they talked about how he was a proven playoff performer and a big game player and failed to mention his unsustainable post-season shooting percentage and lack of regular season success.

Many people believe that Burke wants to add some players to his bottom six this summer. The last time he said that he signed Colby Armstrong for $3million dollars. Here are some names that terrify me:

Brandon Prust, Jordan Tootoo, Adam Burish, Gregory Campbell, George Parros.

They are all “name” players who have the reputation for being “Brian Burke” bottom-six type players. All of these players will be massively overpaid. One of the benefits of advanced statistics is that they can help identify comparable players who may not be as well known around the league, and as such would be available for much less money.

While GMs may think they like a player for his skill set, to often they overpay for a particular player when cheaper comparable options are available because of their supposed reputation. I’m looking at you Colby Armstrong. Instead of trying to find the best value, their desire to send a message convinces them they need to buy a Prius.

You can read Sexton & Sexton's full paper on the Prius Effect here. 

As usual, when any information breaks out of Russia, credit goes to Dmitry Chesnokov for finding the nugget:

Leo Komarov will join the #Leafs this summer, according to his KHL team's official website (s/t @IgorEronko)

— Dmitry Chesnokov (@dchesnokov) May 14, 2012

Team Finland forward Leo Komarov will play for #MapleLeafs next season #NHL

— Igor Eronko (@IgorEronko) May 14, 2012

Now, we had known last week if we were paying attention that Komarov has wanted to come and join the Toronto Maple Leafs. He had a year left on his contract, but there was an "out" clause that he used, and apparently he is about to exercise. Nothing is official out of Toronto yet.

Komarov is actually Finnish, selected in the 6th round, 180th overall, back in 2006. He's been with Dynamo Moscow for the last three seasons after spending his formative years in the SM-Liiga.

But what kind of player is Komarov? Well, according to that Chris Johnston story linked above:

Once considered nothing more than a pest, he’s developed into a responsible two-way player who shows occasional flashes of a scoring touch.

This sounds like a type of player the Leafs could use. Not just in the scoring aspect, but a little bit of sandpaper or two-way play in the bottom two lines. He probably shouldn't be expected to come in and put up 20 goals, because he was never really a dominant scorer in his junior days.

Here are his statistics over the last three seasons with Dynamo:

	GP	G	Pts
2010	47	5	16
2011	52	14	26
2012	46	11	24

And here's how that translates to the NHL over 82 games:

	G+	Pts+
2010	7	23
2011	18	34
2012	16	36

Not a lot of third liners get 35 points, and I don't expect Komarov to be an outlier if he's playing a depth role.

Still, because he'll be on an entry-level deal if he purpotedly signs, it's a pretty risk-free move for the Leafs to make. Right now they are log-jammed with bad contracts given to bad players on the bottom six, so if Komarov turns out to be a flop in the NHL, he's still a slight improvement.

The most important thing to pay attention to with those NHL equivalencies is that no matter how Russian his name sounds, or no matter how many time he's referred to as "dynamic" he's not a guy who has found any scoring success at the pro ranks until the last two seasons.

If he plays next year, that's super. If he manages 15 goals, that's spectacular.

It's well known that come July first most of the teams in the NHL will be offering long and lucrative contracts to Ryan Suter and Zach Parise - if they in fact make it to UFA status. While these two players would help the Maple Leafs turn their playoff drought into a playoff berth next season, it's not likely that they will be able to fit either of those players under their cap, without shedding some salary.

Finding serviceable free agents, who will provide your team with solid play - at a reasonable cost (aka not Mike Komisarek or Colby Armstrong) is key to turning around a struggling franchise without a large amount of NHL ready, high ceiling prospects.

Here I will dive into the UFA pool, seeing if there is anything valuable (again, at a reasonable cost) to be had.

Let's take a look at Matt Carle over the jump.

Matt Carle isn't exactly a diamond in the rough - he's a pretty well known commodity. However, a team might be able to persuade him to sign around the four million mark and that would be pretty decent value as long as he sustains this level of play.

Carle has been a quality possession player so far in his NHL career, seeing a positive Corsi REL in all five years. Laviolette used Carle in defensive situations (<50% Off Zone starts) more often then not, this year (in past years as well). If it weren't for the poor On-Ice Sv% he saw this year his +/- would have been a little nicer (for those of you who still like that stat).

Carle has had three nice years in a row now. He's playing against mid-level competition without terribly good goaltending behind him and seeing positive results. At 27 he may be entering his defensive prime and could be ready for a step up in defensive responsibilities. If the Leafs could get him signed to a team friendly contract he could be useful for another five or six years.

Obviously Carle is a nice piece. I think the amount of money he will see in free agency may be a little high for what the Leafs can shell out without shedding salary. What do you think? Should Carle be a target come July first?

It's been an unpredictable playoffs.  As it stands, 12 series have been concluded.  None of our entrants to date have pegged more than seven correctly, and our average is sitting between four and five.

For those wondering, here are the full standings:

Writer	Total Score	Percentage
~S~K~	7	58.3%
Beavis	7	58.3%
BigE91	7	58.3%
Cam Charron	7	58.3%
greenlightning86	7	58.3%
Horcsky	7	58.3%
Johe	7	58.3%
Koolaid drinker #33	7	58.3%
Oilers4ever	7	58.3%
schevvy	7	58.3%
Vintage Flame	7	58.3%
Bucknuck	6	50.0%
D	6	50.0%
david	6	50.0%
Dunnonuttin	6	50.0%
First Name Unidentified	6	50.0%
geoilersgist	6	50.0%
Jason Gregor	6	50.0%
John Cullen	6	50.0%
madjam	6	50.0%
Mantastic	6	50.0%
master of my domain	6	50.0%
Orange-n-Blue	6	50.0%
Wax Man Riley	6	50.0%
Alberto's dad	5	41.7%
Danny Gray	5	41.7%
DieHard	5	41.7%
EvanAllTogether	5	41.7%
ItsTheBGB	5	41.7%
Jonathan Willis	5	41.7%
Lowetide	5	41.7%
maimster	5	41.7%
Mason Storm	5	41.7%
Matt Stephen	5	41.7%
Oilerpride15	5	41.7%
Quicksilver ballet	5	41.7%
TLHansum	5	41.7%
Woodguy	5	41.7%
yawto	5	41.7%
Abby W.	4	33.3%
ashley	4	33.3%
Brett Mitchell	4	33.3%
Cam Davie	4	33.3%
Ern Beckett	4	33.3%
icedawg_42	4	33.3%
James	4	33.3%
Jeff Angus	4	33.3%
Justin Azevedo	4	33.3%
Kent Wilson	4	33.3%
Marda Miller	4	33.3%
Nate Sans Hate	4	33.3%
ncomas	4	33.3%
Number 44	4	33.3%
oilderrick	4	33.3%
Rob Vollman	4	33.3%
shanetrain	4	33.3%
Thomas Drance	4	33.3%
Tim in Kelowna	4	33.3%
Trentonl	4	33.3%
Wes Mantooth	4	33.3%
Colin	3	25.0%
dan	3	25.0%
Gitagrip	3	25.0%
gord962	3	25.0%
John Lofranco	3	25.0%
Oilers G	3	25.0%
Patrick Johnston	3	25.0%
Time Travelling Sean	3	25.0%
Tinfoil Tuque	3	25.0%
Wanyes bastard child	3	25.0%
Come join the Dark Parade	2	16.7%
Dawn	2	16.7%
everton fc	2	16.7%
Fight Club	2	16.7%
mark	2	16.7%
mayorpoop	2	16.7%
Ryan Fancey	2	16.7%
Ron Burgundy	1	8.3%
SLAM	1	8.3%

Worth noting: some people (especially those near the bottom) only got picks in for one of the previous two rounds.

Naturally, this much inaccuracy isn't going to prevent more guessing!

Round 3 Picks

Writer	PHX/LA	Games	NYR/NJ	Games
Cam Charron	LA	6	NYR	7
Danny Gray	LA	5	NYR	6
Jason Gregor	LA	6	NYR	6
Jonathan Willis	LA	6	NYR	6
Justin Azevedo	LA	6	NYR	5
Kent Wilson	PHX	6	NJ	7
Lowetide	LA	7	NYR	6
Matt Stephen	LA	5	NJ	7
Vintage Flame	LA	6	NYR	7

We'll be accepting entries in the comments until puck-drop tomorrow.

The hot topic this week was the launch of the Nation Network's newest project NHLNumbers blog. Derek Zona, Kent Wilson and others stopped by to talk about how the new site came to be as well as what readers can expect from it down the road. In addition, Ben Massey called in to talk the Oilers and Edmonton FC while Kent Simpson updates us on the Oil Kings playoff march.

This is Nation Radio.

Segment 1

First up is Cam Charron of Canucks Army and Backhand Shelf. Cam and Allan discuss NHLNumbers, advanced stats and the potential fate of Roberto Luongo.

Segment 2

Derek Zona of Copper 'n Blue and NHLNumbers shares his vision for the new project as well as his recent 2012 mock draft article and a defense of Sam gagner.

Segment 3

It's a double dose of Canucks writers, with guest number two being Canucks Army managing editor Thom Drance. Vigneault, Luongo and stats are the main topics.

Segment 4

Next, Nation Overlord Kent Wilson looks at the NHLNumbers launch in detail. He also compares Nail Yakupv to Taylor Hall.

Segment 5

Benjamin Massey of Copper 'n Blue joins to discuss Tom Renney, the NHL draft as well as Edmonton's football club.

Segment 6

Finally, we end with regular guest Kent Simpson, color commentator of the Edmonton Oil Kings. He and LT go over the Kings great season, Oilers prospect Martin Gernat and 20 year old players.

Full

The whole show.

Nation Radio would like to remind prospective advertisers and partners we still have some competitive sponsorship packages available. Please contact Kent.wilson@gmail.com for more details.

Everyone’s noticed that these playoffs have been atypical so far, with upsets becoming the rule rather than the exception. For those teams that still have life in their seasons after beating out the heavily favoured (or unexpectedly tenacious) there’s been one common thread– they play D and they have a goalie.

The five teams remaining in the playoffs include two of the Vezina Trophy candidate goalies, plus Pekka Rinne, not so shabby himself. The old adage has proven true again – defence wins championships. The Leafs didn’t play much of it this year and didn’t have a goalie who was reliably able to stop dump-ins from the blue line… Burke, Carlyle, Rogers Communications INC. and Bell Media, listen up.

What the Leafs can learn about defence

What the Leafs did:

• Scored on 264 times this season, the second-most of any team.
• BUT, finished the season 10^th best in goals for
• Were speedy and offensively driven under Ron Wilson
• Of the 8 teams that made it to Round Two only two of those teams scored more goals than the Leafs in the regular season, but all had played better defence.
• No. 1 D-man D. Phaneuf finished the year with the most ice time of any Leaf player and one of the worst plus/minus with a minus 10

What The Winners Did:

Every team that remains in these playoffs save the Washington Capitals finished the year among the top ten in fewest goals allowed. The teams that remain in these playoffs are still alive because they play safe, shutdown defence and have goalies to back them up. In these playoffs there has been 42 one-goal game wins, 62% of all games played so far.

In fact, the Capitals have yet to win a post-season contest by more than one goal. Twenty-three of the 26 games the Capitals and Rangers have played this post-season have been decided by a single goal. They’ve all been incredibly close games thanks to all-around great defence.

While none of the three Norris Trophy candidates remain in the playoffs, the defence-first approach is one all of these teams take. The most offensively-minded club still in the playoffs is, ironically, the New Jersey Devils, whose name was synonymous with the trap-style of defence that all the other teams are now employing. The Devils scored the most regular season goals of any of the remaining playoff teams, finishing 11^th in the league in GF – that’s right, behind the Leafs, who therefore out-scored every remaining playoff team in the regular season.

What the Caps did: Replaced their offensively-minded coach with one that bores his way to success with a brand of hockey using a 1-4 system and O-bench-kin tactics. The Caps are riding the hot hand of Braden Holtby throughout these playoffs, but while the 22-year-old goalie has been good, he has had a lot of help in front of him. The Caps have blocked 293 shots, the most in these playoffs and 45 more than their opponents the Rangers, fearless shot blockers themselves. Washington also boasts the most takeaways in the playoffs and had the most in the regular season of the teams still fighting.

What the Rangers did: Allowed the fewest goals-against in the Eastern Conference regular season. They had a Vezina-nominated goaltender with them the whole way and two D-men with a plus/minus over +20, but a middling number of goals-for.The Blue Shirts also don’t mind wearing a puck or two, finishing fourth in that department in the regular season.

What the Kings did: Allowed the fewest goals of any team, again with the help of a Vezina-nominated goalie, plus again a team playing almost nothing but defence in front of him. The Kings finished the season out in 8^th place, but they did it by scoring fewer goals than the Columbus Blue Jackets. Only one team scored less than the Kings, now a Stanley Cup front runner.

What the Coyotes did: The name you’ll never forget: Mike Smith. 1.77 goals-against average, two shutouts, fewest goals against of any goalie active in the playoffs. ‘Nuff said.

New Jersey Devils: When the New Jersey Devils are the most offensively minded team remaining in the playoffs, it’s clear there’s a trend. Martin Brodeur has the potential to play lights-out and the team’s only minus player is Ilya Kovalchuk, so you know the rest of the team is doing its job to make up for him defensively. Even as the playoffs’ strongest offensive threat, the Devils have still had half of their games determined by just one goal.

If the Leafs are still looking to emulate the structure of a winning franchise, they might do better to turn away from Boston Bruins-style truculence. The team could aim to adopt a style more like the winners in these playoffs – bore your opponent into submission, your fans will thank you in the end.

It’s worth a shot, at least. 1-4 4ever!