July 29 2013 10:19AM
So this is what we've learned in the last two days. Nick Kypreos and Darren Dreger both suggest that Mark Fraser wants $2-million when he goes to arbitration tomorrow:
D-man Mark Fraser requests 2M in sal arb case while #Leafs comes in at 855 000. Scheduled for Tues if they don't settle first.— Nick Kypreos (@RealKyper) July 28, 2013
Just an off-shoot of the Franson post from earlier, this Fraser arbitration is key to the Leafs offseason. Anything at $900k and under is a win because the Leafs can send him to the minors and it won't count against the cap.
July 29 2013 09:43AM
Cody Franson's name has circulated in trade winds (Steve's post | Jeff's post) over the last week and some people are really freaking out about it. Perhaps for a reason, perhaps not. I'm of the camp that the Leafs are in a tight salary cap position, but they'll be find if they get Franson and Nazem Kadri under contract for $7-million apiece, win their arbitration case against Mark Fraser and demote him, Trevor Smith and Korbinian Holzer and skate just 20 players. What can go wrong, right?
If you assume the Leafs won't get hurt at all this season or tired, and two-thirds of the roster play 82 games, like Anthony Petrelli points out, the opening day roster can be seen as an upgrade to last year's. Unfortunately, the team will have little depth if they fail to trade John-Michael Liles, and if Mark Fraser's arbitration award comes in at more than $900K, any demotion of his will count against the cap a little. The team can ill-afford to see Franson or Kadri come in at more than our projected amounts (Franson was at $2.8-million and Kadri at $3.5-million, but Carl Gunnarsson's deal was a little more than our $2.8-million projection, as was Jonathan Bernier) and every $100K counts during this season.
If to get around that, the Leafs need to trade Franson… well, what is he worth?
Jeff Veillette (Jeffler)
July 27 2013 04:09PM
If you were on here yesterday, Steve wrote an article weighing the positives and negatives of a Cody Franson trade (which Darren Dreger suggests the Leafs are looking at due to a lack of cap space). His eventual conclusion was that there is the Leafs should probably give in and do it, because despite his talents, there's potential return. Plus, they don't appear to have much of a choice. On the other hand, I believe that this is a worse situation than it already appears to be, and whatever happens, it will be laced in regret. I present my argument in a shuffled version of the Five W's:
July 26 2013 01:40PM
So apparently Cody Franson might get traded. Here's a picture of him looking for a cab to the airport or something.
People are accusing me of hating everything the Leafs do just because I’m a whiner. I mean, I’ve spent over half a decade blogging about the Toronto Maple Leafs, two of which were spent actually working for the team, and I've been constantly dumped on for defending the likes of Phaneuf, Kessel, etc. But hey, people disagree with me, so let’s all call Steve a meanie bo beanie because I disagree with his points and critical thinking.
How about this…
Here is how I think trading Franson could be a good idea, and how trading Franson could be a bad idea.
July 26 2013 09:45AM
at the 36 game mark, the Leafs did actually out-chance their opponents 474-469. Edit: I erred on my interpretation of these numbers — the original included special teams. The actual numbers available to us are 392 against and 355 for on even-strength. However, this isn’t the chasm inferred via shots total against. But it does leave me wondering what Cam’s final scoring chance counter was.
The Leafs out-chancing the opposition doesn’t necessarily mean anything. But it does give credence that the coaching staff actually knows what they want out of their line-up, how to get it, and what they are tracking. Oddly enough, the narrative that Carlyle and Co. don’t have a clue what they are doing come from the lowest denominator of an internet arm-chair general manager from that other place.
It's wonderful that people are using my data, I guess. Since the Greg Cronin interview came out last week, a lot of people have asked me if I have a final tally for the Leafs scoring chances numbers for and against on the season. They came out well-below even at even strength, having a brutal final 12 games of the season in chances. I don't have an exact number because the other computer is in the other room and there's some element of laziness because I'm trying to vacation and stay away from hockey for a week. I can't quit you guys, but the 36-game update is all we have for some time.