Projecting Leafs Scoring

Robert Vollman
October 19 2012 08:40AM

The point projections you find in hockey magazines are based on the intuitive guesses of analysts who follow the teams closely, and can therefore occasionally be skewed by personal biases or wishful thinking.  That's why it's best to supplement (not replace) them with purely statistically-based projections.

For the third season in a row over at the Flamesnation sister site we're using the two most popular statistical projection systems, Tom Awad's VUKOTA and my own Snepsts67, to anchor our expectations.  The former is more established and has the advantage of also estimating games played while the latter defines lower and upper ranges, and finds good historical examples within.

For a spreadsheet with complete results and a bit more of an explanation head on over to Hockey Abstract.  Speaking of which, figuring out how a player is going to be used is the trickiest part of a projection, and that context can generally be found in the Player Usage Charts also available on that site, so have that handy too.

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The Outsiders: Marlies Forwards

Gus Katsaros
October 18 2012 09:18AM

As it stands, unless there is a significant change in personnel, it's not likely any candidate suddenly make the Leafs and steal a roster spot. That's not what this is about. This isn't about a player like Keith Aucoin who even Brian Burke mentioned during the broadcast he would see some time with the Leafs.

Perhaps these players peak in the American Hockey League, but with a little work and some refinement, these are the good replacement level forwards, with an outside chance to make the jump from Ricoh Coliseum to the Air Canada Centre.

Carter Ashton

Ended the season with a 15 game NHL debut, scoreless yet enthusiastic debut. He scored 20 goals at the time of the late season recall, scoring 11 in the first 13 games, and then 9 in the remaining 46. Injured in first round of the Calder Cup playoffs versus Rochester, he returned to face his old team Norfolk in the the Calder Cup Finals, scoring the Marlies series opening goal and adding another assist during 4-game sweep.

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KHL Update: Grabo Goal, More of Malkin, Unlucky Chara, and more

Steve Dangle
October 17 2012 06:18PM

 

Hey look! Actual hockey!

Here's today's KHL highlights, featuring Mikail Grabovski, Evgeni Malkin, Zdeno Chara, and more.

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The Trouble with Tyler Biggs

Cam Charron
October 17 2012 12:59PM

Today, the Toronto Maple Leafs were due to play in Washington. This upsets me for two reasons, one, that there's still no NHL hockey on TV, and two is that I'm very interesting to see what comes out of the Capitals' pseudo-rebuild. They went decidedly defensive last season despite holding the most exciting offensive talent in a decade, and it looks like their intention in the offseason was to ditch that.

Though they got rid of Alex Semin, they added Mike Ribeiro and Wojtek Wolski. The second is a bit of an enigma, an up-and-down player with decent possession numbers throughout his career though has played several different roles for each of the four teams he's played for. Ribeiro, however, is a talented, natural centre and though his numbers have declined, I think he should get an added boost this season.

Maybe there will be a season. There probably will be, and Washington is always an interesting team to track. But there won't be a game tonight. No, so today we will talk about Tyler Biggs.

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Full disclosure

Ryan Fancey
October 17 2012 12:36PM

The NHL has gone ahead and released the details of their offer to the Players' Association, which was first presented to the union yesterday. It's another surprising move in what's now become the CBA news hitting back-to-back-to-back jacks in having the NHL's focus group experiment come to light, followed by the proposal a day later, and now this.

Details of the offer can be found here, at NHL.com.

A few highlights:

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