Forecasting James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier

Cam Charron
July 10 2013 12:25PM

If you're a sports analyst, one of the main problems is confronting the issue of survivorship bias.

In sports, results drive most of the business, even though the results from the previous year don't always impact the results in the next year. Very few teams across sports are willing to be patient and stick to a process that will lead them into making good bets. "Buy low" is generally accepted in the stock market but not in sports. The Toronto Maple Leafs this offseason have bought high on Tyler Bozak and David Clarkson, rather than bought low on Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin.

Say you have two players with a "true talent" of 20 goals per season. The first player got some bad puck luck and scored just 15, while the second got some puck puck, a few extra chances, and scored 25. More often than not, when choosing between the two players, a team will go for the 25-goal scorer, even though the 15-goal scorer would be cheaper and he's just as likely to produce at the same level in the future.

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Marlies: Who's Left?

Jeff Veillette (Jeffler)
July 09 2013 06:29PM

With the Toronto Maple Leafs seemingly finished with adding players this offseason (can anybody see them being able to afford much else after signing RFAs?) there's been a lot of talk about what the roster will look like this year and how it stacks up to the one that was used throughout last year. After all, there have been a decent amount of changes to the team. But hold on. What's happened to the Toronto Marlies? After all, the team draws heavily from players throughout the Leafs organization, and the development of some of these players is crucial to the future NHL success. Let's take a look: 

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The Steve Dangle Podcast - July 9, 2013 - #Floodcast

Steve Dangle
July 09 2013 02:16PM


It's a little rain? Steve, Adam, and Chris come together in the middle of the ridiculous Toronto rainstorm to talk about Tyler Seguin's Twitter, the Leafs signings, Luongo playing poker, and some embarrassing stories of their own. 

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Not advanced statistics - Grabovski is still better

Cam Charron
July 09 2013 11:21AM

Over the weekend, Ontario-native and sun-drenched Kitsilano resident Blake Murphy made an excellent case in breaking down the debate between the "advanced" statistics relating to Tyler Bozak and Mikhail Grabovski. It's true that there are some good metrics out there used for evaluating certain aspects of defensive play that, yes, some NHL teams do use in making player evaluations, but I don't think that the concepts are particularly advanced. There is definitely a lot of opposition to the objective reaction of Dave Nonis' recent moves which is based on some mis-understandings.

But I want to circle back to Tyler Bozak, and I want to hammer home this point because Kessel will likely re-sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs and play out a large chunk of his career in Toronto, including the portion of his career where he can no longer be counted on to score 30 goals a season. Without a legitimate No. 1 centre by his side, he has become one of hockey's most productive wingers, and barring his slump at the start of the season when pucks weren't going in, an absolute treat to watch down the stretch and into the playoffs.

On the TSN Free Agency broadcast, I was a little peeved that the only regular panelist that seemed to encroach on my belief that Tyler Bozak's contract was not a positive for the Leafs was Ray Ferraro. In The Reporters segments, Bruce Arthur straight up called Bozak a "lousy player" but that wasn't about it. I noticed towards the end of the coverage, the tone had changed from "will Nonis get his man" to "Bozak isn't a No. 1 centreman... but he's not being paid like one" which sort of misses the point.

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Leafs Offseason: Clarkson, Bozak, and iTunes

Steve Dangle
July 08 2013 03:00PM

The Leafs did a bunch of stuff!...I mean, I'm not really sure it was good stuff, but it's stuff, alright!

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