The Leafs after the 20 Game Yardstick

Danny Gray
November 18 2011 12:11PM

Are you there Darryl? It's me, Brian.

"I think a realistic yardstick is 20 games, that being said, these points that they’ve put in the bank are important come March or April. But you can’t just have a great start and then fizzle. That flame has to be sustainable. That’s the challenge." –Brian Burke on October 20, 2011

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Phoenix - Toronto Scoring Chances

JP Nikota
November 17 2011 11:44PM

For a summary of the Leafs' scoring chances through their first 17 games, check out this recent post of mine. From here on in, it'll just be game-by-game numbers with the occasional update.

Once again, I'll link my first post on the subject that explains the parameters for counting a scoring chance. They may not be exactly what you'd expect, but there is a group of us attempting to standardize our tabulation process.

As far as an explanation goes for the following tables, the first shows each individual chance, and I've recorded who the shooter was in each case under the column 'Note'.

The second table summarizes how many chances for (green) and against (red) each player was on the ice for, and under which circumstances. Remember that they don't have to be the shooter - they just have to be on the ice when the chance is taken.

The final table is more or less self-explanatory, but, just to be clear, it just divides the number of scoring chances at EV, PP, and PK by team and period.

Hope you enjoy.


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Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics

Jonathan Willis
November 17 2011 12:04PM

It’s a famous saying, one popularized by the great American writer Mark Twain, who (perhaps incorrectly) attributes it to former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

What does it mean?

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Statistics Are Dumb

Jonathan Willis
November 16 2011 08:18PM

Yes, I wrote that title. Not only did I write it, but I mean it.

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Cap Hit Of Injured Players: Leafs Not So Lucky This Year

JP Nikota
November 16 2011 08:17PM

There's a pun to be made here about 'falling Leafs' - especially as we're in the midst of Fall - but I'm not going to be the one to make it. We're just all business here at The Leafs Nation, in case you haven't noticed - cough, cough.

Recently, the Leafs currently have a sizeable list of players that are injured, and unable to play in tomorrow's game against Nashville:

James Reimer
Mikhail Grabovski
Clarke MacArthur
Colby Armstrong

Colton Orr has the flu, but should be available by tomorrow, even though he'll likely be a healthy sratch.

Matt Frattin missed practice today, but it was for personal reasons, and will definitely be back tomorrow.

Returning for Toronto will be Tim Connolly, who has missed 11 of the Leafs' 17 games so far.

This might have been a nice time to call up Joe Colborne, who posted 19 points in his first 12 games with the Toronto Marlies, but he is also not quite back to 100%, and can't be counted on just yet. In any event, he'll probably need a couple games to get his timing back before the Leafs give him an audition for the big show.

Most of us have looked back on last year, when the Leafs' were one of the healthier teams in the league, and figured that this year is life's way of balancing out the tables, but this is something of a Gambler's Fallacy. Year-to-year man games lost to injury are (mostly) discreet numbers, and can't be thought of in that way. The odds that we stayed healthy last year are the same that we stayed healthy this year. (Except, perhaps, for the case of Tim Connolly.)

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