Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics

Jonathan Willis
November 17 2011 12:04PM

It’s a famous saying, one popularized by the great American writer Mark Twain, who (perhaps incorrectly) attributes it to former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

What does it mean?

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Statistics Are Dumb

Jonathan Willis
November 16 2011 08:18PM

Yes, I wrote that title. Not only did I write it, but I mean it.

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Cap Hit Of Injured Players: Leafs Not So Lucky This Year

JP Nikota
November 16 2011 08:17PM

There's a pun to be made here about 'falling Leafs' - especially as we're in the midst of Fall - but I'm not going to be the one to make it. We're just all business here at The Leafs Nation, in case you haven't noticed - cough, cough.

Recently, the Leafs currently have a sizeable list of players that are injured, and unable to play in tomorrow's game against Nashville:

James Reimer
Mikhail Grabovski
Clarke MacArthur
Colby Armstrong

Colton Orr has the flu, but should be available by tomorrow, even though he'll likely be a healthy sratch.

Matt Frattin missed practice today, but it was for personal reasons, and will definitely be back tomorrow.

Returning for Toronto will be Tim Connolly, who has missed 11 of the Leafs' 17 games so far.

This might have been a nice time to call up Joe Colborne, who posted 19 points in his first 12 games with the Toronto Marlies, but he is also not quite back to 100%, and can't be counted on just yet. In any event, he'll probably need a couple games to get his timing back before the Leafs give him an audition for the big show.

Most of us have looked back on last year, when the Leafs' were one of the healthier teams in the league, and figured that this year is life's way of balancing out the tables, but this is something of a Gambler's Fallacy. Year-to-year man games lost to injury are (mostly) discreet numbers, and can't be thought of in that way. The odds that we stayed healthy last year are the same that we stayed healthy this year. (Except, perhaps, for the case of Tim Connolly.)

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Leafs lose Grabovski, MacArthur to the proverbial shelf

Cam Charron
November 16 2011 02:51PM

So, Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur were both banged up last night against the Phoenix Coyotes.

News broke out today that Grabovski will miss at least two weeks. Since November games are so important, Ron Wilson was in full playoff mode and qualified the injury strictly as "lower body". Meanwhile, MacArthur left late in the second period after playing just ten shifts in the game, and Wilson wasn't discussing much about his status.

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NHLNumbers Podcast Episode 2

NHLnumbers Podcast
November 16 2011 11:01AM

 

The second iteration of the NHLNumbers Podcast features the regular crew from episode one (myself, Jon Willis and Justin Azevedo) as well as Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca and Arctic Ice Hockey fame. Gabe is one of the best minds in the world and pioneer when it comes to advanced hockey analysis so we were thrilled he was able to appear for the whole show.

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