Nate Silver, elections and SPORTS

Cam Charron
November 07 2012 02:55AM

Math kicked ass.

Not to say that Nate Silver's models are completely infallible, of course, the guy got lucky. Every single state of the union voted as Silver forecasted it to vote, within a slim margin of error he gave simply by aggregating polls over the last year or so.

I don't want to write an election-themed post, but I do think it's worth it for me to note Silver in writing somewhere. Silver, once fed up with mainstream electoral coverage during the 2008 election and began writing a blog. He correctly forecasted the winners of 49 of 50 states. That's not a huge achievement on its own, but Silver had gained notoriety in the political world for the statistical approach on his blog fivethirtyeight and his work with Baseball Prospectus in developing PECOTA, a system used to find historical matches of baseball players, and use those matches to forecast a range of outcomes for a player later in his career.

Read Article | 9 Comments

The NHL Could Learn Something From The U.S. Elections

Graphic Comments
November 06 2012 05:16PM

Chances of seeing the Stanley Cup

Today marks the end of the gruelling campaign for the presidency of the United States. However, unlike an NHL season (remember those?), the winner of this campaign will actually have a very good chance of seeing the Stanley Cup. Multiple times, even.

If only it was that easy for the Presidents' Trophy winner. Sigh.

But I guess winning the Presidents' Trophy is very prestigious just in and of itself. I mean, you not only get the Trophy and a guarantee of two, maybe three home games in the playoffs, but the NHL even has a separate web page to recognize the winners...oh for God's sake.

Anyway, sharing a name for the ultimate prize (oh shut up and just go with it) is not the only thing in common between the NHL and the U.S. political system...

Read Article | 10 Comments

Leafs Worst Penalty Killing Stretch

Gus Katsaros
November 06 2012 08:30AM

I was looking at the past season schedule, particularly a period of the Leafs worst penalty killing of the campaign, a span of 20 games between November 19 and January 3.

This period of time could have been a total disaster had the Leafs not been firing at a 24% clip on the power play (17-for-71) carving out a 9-8-3 record in those 20 games – 4-2-2 at home.

During this time, the Leafs gave up 23 power play goals on 84 opportunities, their worst string of penalty killing futility (72.6% success rate) on the season. Toronto allowed 62 goals and the 23 power play goals against represented 41% of the 55 total goals given up during the entire season.

Read Article | 0 Comments

Things That Drive Me Insane In NHL 13: "I can't touch the puck!"

JP Nikota
November 05 2012 07:49PM

With the NHL season in limbo, it's only natural that many of us have been breaking more and more frequently with reality. That is, we're opting for a virtual reality over the one we're being presented by Gary Bettman, Donald Fehr, and their muppet minions.

Alas, I don't enjoy EA Sports' NHL 13 the way I had hoped. In the coming weeks, I intend to showcase different (and frustrating) shortcomings of the game as part of a series of posts.

Read Article | 4 Comments

Tyler Biggs had a +10 Corsi on Friday

Cam Charron
November 05 2012 01:03PM

This is pretty cool. Tony Notarianni, a Leafs blogger who dissected the matchup between Connor Brown and Ryan Rupert in an early season Friday Night Hockey game on Sportsnet again got the chance to compare two Toronto Maple Leaf prospects this Friday when Tyler Biggs and Matt Finn ran into each other.

Justin Fisher, who's been keeping track of prospects for us (that involves actually watching the games, who knew?) has seen a lot of Oshawa Generals games and says that Biggs tends to make a lot of plays away from the puck that benefits his scoring line. This is why I wrote earlier that points can't be the only way to judge Biggs, particularly from a statistical perspective, when the "statistical perspective" when Biggs makes the jump will be determinant on how well he plays off the puck, indicated by his Corsi or usage numbers.

Read Article | 7 Comments