Changing Faces

It’s now late January, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are skydiving down the standings. Last year, the reaction among the masses was a plea to reach for the parachute cord and pull; the results of the luck-driven prior season gave many hope that the tides could be reversed. This year? Written off. It’s done. Wipe the hands of the dust and start getting ready for what’s ahead. As such, speculation has begun as to what management has to do leading up to the trade deadline.

My answer? Not enter it as the same group they are now. Specifically, I’m looking towards the big guy.

I’m going to forgo my usual numbers-laden analysis of individuals and cut straight to the chase here. A lot of the current scuttlebutt can be traced back to the very man who is supposed to mend it.

Cody Franson is the first name that ends up in most trade talks. The pending unrestricted free agent is thought to be asking for a dollar figure that the Leafs can’t afford to pay. Not even “too high for what he is”; Franson has proven to be an elite even-strength point producer and better than most in moving to the offensive zone. Merely that the Leafs can’t afford it.

But how do you get to that point? You get there with a management team that gave Franson not one, not two, but three consecutive “put up or shut up” contracts in an effort to keep his salary down. It worked for them in 2013, as he had a down year, but this recent one is a catastrophe. Franson has finally had his coming out party, and the Leafs have completely failed to get any UFA years out of him before having to make a decision on him. Of course, there’s the potential out of “Nonis doesn’t feel that Franson is very good”, but this ignores the fact that he was assistant GM for his acquisition and was the GM for three contract extensions.

Staying on the current defencemen, Captain Dion Phaneuf has been in trade negotiations. Elliotte Friedman mentioned today that he was offered to Los Angeles in exchange for Mike Richards and a top prospect. Kevin McGran has noted that Phaneuf has been shopped across the Western Conference. Whether it’s feelers or firesale, the man with the C is definitely “on the market”.

The two obvious reasons for this sudden heel turn are “lack of cap space” or “lack of leadership”, and you can look back for both of those. Nonis signed him to his seven year extension that he began this year. Nonis was around for Phaneuf’s acquisition and appointment of captaincy. If he feels a mistake has been made in either regard, he’s a witness at best and an instigator at worst. I’m of the crowd that likes Phaneuf and wouldn’t mind keeping him for a little longer (seven years is a long time, though), but if you take shopping a guy (which is different than ‘open to offers’) as an acknowledgement of a mistake, Nonis is acknowledging himself.

The list goes on and on. It would be in the Leafs’ best interest to sell high on Joffrey Lupul and Tyler Bozak (the latter being at peak value) before regressions (Lupul’s being age driven, Bozak’s usage driven) drop the value on their five year contracts. Dave Nonis signed both of those deals. Nazem Kadri needs a big raise? Nazem Kadri wanted a longer term deal and Nonis asked for the bridge contract. David Clarkson’s contract is the absolute worst signed in the history of the National Hockey League and is impeding the team? Who decided it was a good idea? Right.

Let’s say you wanted to ignore the entire 2013/14 offseason, which for all intents and purposes is one of the biggest catastrophes that has happened since Mike Milbury had power of an NHL team. Nonis hasn’t exactly done a lot to provoke optimism. 

Let’s start at last year’s trade deadline. The Leafs had an 11-1-2 stretch heading into the Olympic Break that brought them from out of the playoffs to six points ahead of the Red Wings, but Detroit had caught two of those up by the deadline even with the Leafs having two overtime losses. Nonis chose to trust that the dominant team he saw prior was going to be the one that stuck around. The reality was that the Leafs were the second-worst possession team in the league over that stretch and stayed at the bottom. Drops in shooting percentage and save percentage plummeted lead to the crash and burn that we saw.

You can’t blame Nonis for wishful thinking; you can, however, for feeling that said thinking was the probable outcome. If he was realistic and expected regression, he could have obtained assets for the likes of Mason Raymond and Nikolai Kulemin, who he ultimately allowed to hit unrestricted free agency. 

Fast forward into this offseason. The Frattin for D’Amigo swap is whatever. Gunnarsson for Polak has worked out for both sides, but retaining salary on Gunnarsson hurts a lot right now. Signing Stephane Robidas, who has looked relatively dreadful on the rare occasions that he’s healthy and probably won’t play out his 35+ contract. Whether he does or doesn’t, he’ll be in the way of either a roster spot or a paycheque for one of Toronto’s younger defencemen.

How about the moves that didn’t happen? Everybody likes to point out that the Leafs walked away from Dave Bolland, but Nonis offered him a five year deal at five million dollars a year. The only reason that he’s not on the IR Leafs right now is because the Panthers offered him more money. Being bailed out on a bad decision because someone else made a dumber one doesn’t make your decision smart; it just makes it the second dumbest. 

Or how about Josh Gorges? Nonis, as the story goes, traded Cody Franson to the Montreal Canadiens in a BC Boy for BC Boy swap. Gorges, who apparently watched The Hockey Sweater about thirty thousand times after getting knocked out of the playoffs, used his No Trade Clause to block the deal, saying he couldn’t give his all for the Leafs because he loved the Habs so much. Instead, he went to the Buffalo Sabres, where he’s become the second worst possession player (or the worst, because Patrick Kaleta barely qualifies as a modern NHLer) on one of the worst possession teams in professional hockey history. The Leafs kept Cody Franson, who is a Leafs fan, drives play, scores buckets of points, and is apparently now too good to afford keeping. 

Even today’s rumour, which sees the Leafs trying to acquire Tyler Toffoli for about the twelfth time in as many months, comes with the caveat that the Leafs trade their captain in a deal that also includes them having the second worst contract in the game to go with the worst one.

We’re getting away from my main point, however. The reality is, every single player on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster has played their first game in blue and white with Dave Nonis as either the assistant GM or the actual GM. Nonis either assisted in acquiring or actually acquired every single player on this roster other than James Reimer (Leo Komarov was drafted before him, but technically brought back as a UFA). Nonis played a part in the process of creating or orchestrated every single contract on this team, including the ones that he needs to shed in a cap-induced panic. His recent highlights include not making catastrophic decisions because others stopped him from making them.

Even if Brendan Shanahan (who, in my eyes, is starting to run out of time to use firings as “patience extensions”) is around to stop him from making more of them, this isn’t a confidence invoking situation. Coming from somebody who advocated making him GM before he was even the assistant, my mind is long changed. Right now, Dave Nonis is assigned the task of fixing the mistakes of Dave Nonis.

Given the history, that should be someone else’s assignment.

  • CMpuck

    Jeff, for you to say that the Clarkson deal is the worst ever in the NHL just shows that you have not been around for long or you have not checked the facts. The Finger contract comes to mind as well as about 15 contracts from other teams. Yep Toronto has not done a good job at cap management and Nonis should be held accountable for that, but it was Loiselle that was the capologist for the Leafs at that time.

    • Jeremy Ian

      David Clarkson’s deal, compared to Jeff Finger, was for an extra 3 years and an extra 22.75 million dollars, and the way it’s structured, they can’t even buy him out because 75% of the deal is in signing bonuses.

    • Okay, so this can be easily broken down.

      Every contract before 2005 is invalid. There was no salary cap and failure to meet expectations only hurt ownership.

      Every contract without a no-movement clause before 2013 is also invalid. Any contract signed, while it had a cap penalty, could be sent 100% to the AHL and taken off the books. It didn’t happen often because GM’s have ethics and pride, but it was possible.

      Clarkson’s contract is attached to a salary cap. Only 20% of Clarkson’s contract could be sent to the AHL if he didn’t have a no-movement clause. His bonus structure is specifically designed to give the Leafs the bare minimum benefit from a buyout.

      A large contingent of people know that there was never going to be a point where Clarkson was worth 5.25M in an individual season, and that there never was prior, yet he was signed to the maximum term that one could sign a player for.

      Combine this with his complete and utter failure to meet expectations and it’s the worst. I don’t think it’s even disputable.

    • acg5151

      Jeff Finger had a ridiculous contract – 4 years and 3.5 million per year.

      He also was decent his first year – 23 points in 66 games for a defenseman on a bad team really isn’t terrible. It’s not good and he wasn’t good but he wasn’t as bad a defenseman in his first year that Clarkson was bad as a forward in his first year.

      His second year sucked so he got sent down to the Marlies – where the Leafs were able to bury his contract.

      Fast forward to 2014 – we can’t really send David Clarkson to the Marlies because a) I’m pretty sure he has an NMC which makes it difficult b) His buyout is going to cost a lot against the cap in the future – I can’t use capgeek to do the buyout calculator but because it is almost all in signing bonuses if the Leafs buy him out there aren’t much in the way of savings and he is on the books for 10 years.

      My end argument – 7 years 36.5 million versus
      4 years 14 million total.

      Jeff Finger sucked but Clarkson takes the cake

  • CMpuck

    Just pointed out that picture of Nonis to my daughter and said ‘look how handsome he is’ to which she replied ‘no he’s gross’.

    Inside and out sweetheart, good luck in future endeavors Davey.

  • CMpuck

    Ballard=John Ferguson Jr.= Nonis. WHY CANT THE LEAFS HAVE A FREAKEN GENERAL MANAGER LIKE KEN HOLLAND OR DEAN LOMBARDY OR DALE FREAKEN TALLEN IM SURE THE RICH AND MIGHTY LEAFS CAN AFFORD THOSE HOCKEY GENIUSES THAT BUILD CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS THROUGH DRAFTING AND DEFENSE AND VETERAN LEADERSHIP IM SURE THEY COULD DO IT IF THEY WANTED TO BUT STUPID MLSE ONLY CARE ABOUT THE MONEY!!! PEOPLE WILL FILL THE ACC AND BUY LEAFS MERCHANDIZE EVENIF THE LOSE 82-0!!!! FIRE NONIS YES BUT DONT PLEASE DONT HIRE A NONIS OR BALLARD OR FREGUSON JR. CLONE PLEASEEEE!!!!!!!

  • Benjamin

    I know its been bandied around a bit the last few weeks, but if that two week stretch from June 23rd to July 5th 2013 isn’t a fireable offence, I dunno what is.

    June 23rd: Trades 3 assets (2nd rounder, Scrivens, Frattin) to ‘upgrade’ the only position with some solidity (Bernier).

    June 30th: Trades 3 draft picks (one 2nd and two 4ths) for 23 games of Dave Bolland.

    July 2nd: Uses a compliance buy-out on Komisarek (one year left) instead of Liles (two years left). Later flips Liles for Gleason, buys Gleason (against the cap till 2018).

    July 4th: Uses a compliance buy-out on the Leafs best centre (Grabovksi).

    July 5th: Lets MacArthur walk, signs Bozak and Clarkson, the worst contract in the history of the NHL.

    That’s 7 transactions in 2 weeks that range from confusing/unnecessary to the abominable. Please bring this nightmare to an end in the offseason, Shanahan.

    #AllHeartBrisebois

    • Jeremy Ian

      That horrid week was a reaction to the blunt force trauma of Game 7. Not smart to make long term decisions based on short term feelings. (Bernier deal was not bad, but it did not address the core issues). Nonis seems to have blanked out on what the implications were on the new CBA, who’s ink was barely dry when he went ahead and did this!

      The Holland deal was positive. Not sure Nonis would have made it without the catastrophe we were facing down the middle last year.

      One thing I’d add to Jeffler’s unflattering catalogue of poor decisions: Nonis should go because executives that have to fix their own mistakes are prone to over-invested in proving they were right all along. If they have something to prove about the past, it gets in the way of the future. There is so much data on this. Firms seldom correct their own mistakes; they more often compound them. Change the leadership. The only issue is timing.

      The Harvard Business School should use this in their MBA program for what NOT to do.

  • CMpuck

    Don’t forget about one of the biggest blunders of all. Nonis turned (arguably) the best 2nd line in hockey at one point of Grabo, Kulie, and Mac into NEGATIVE VALUE!

    He was AGM when they combined for 80 goals in one year, and managed to turn that into 2 UFAs and a compliance buyout.

    To me, that’s just as shameful as the Clarkson blunder. The only difference is that Clarkson will be on the cap forever as opposed to the lack of assets you can’t look at because they got nothing for the other three!

  • CMpuck

    I see we are all in agreement here and Nonis did his best to compound it by going after Bolland and Georges. What if those deals had gone through? Robidas might have made sense on a 1 year deal only.

    Shanahan gave his approval for these deals. He’s not a GM. Dubas and Hunter have no experience at the NHL level. There is no one in the organization who can step up into the GM position. Nonis still has more than enough power to do further damage, if that’s even possible, and having to get Shanny’s approval works in his favour. He has someone to share the blame with when he fails.

    Shanahan is no dummy and we all know what an incredible mess he walked into but he has made two errors he can’t take back: He didn’t fire Carlyle-a season is wasted and, even worse, he has left an incompetent GM in place.

  • CMpuck

    Dave Nonis will not be with the Leafs at the 2015 Draft. One of Shanahan’s guys will be the GM by that point.
    It’s only fair to suggest that people look to Garth Snow to see how quickly an NHL GM can go from “complete idiot” to “GM of The Year.” Snow managed that in one day’s work by signing two good defencemen – Leddy and Boychuk – to complete the overhaul of the Islanders.
    Not suggesting that’s going to happen for Toronto but it can be done.

  • CMpuck

    It’s the blind leading the blind After all we are not sure if we are buyers or sellers are you for real,Common Shanny Nonis let’s get to work!!!3 deal’s to be working on Winnik,Songs,Booth,then Lupol,Bozak,Bernie,Franson sign or trade Still not sold on this mngt team by trade deadline we should know