Dreger On the Probability of Which Leafs Get Traded

Almost seamlessly we move from Friedman’s Leaf thoughts into
Darren Dreger’s with the weekly Dreger
Report.
 Dreger has a lot on the
possibility of Antoine Vermette wanting to stay put, which certainly would
impact the
Bozak rumours that Friedman touched on
.

Most importantly, Dreger has updated his chart of the
probability of which Leafs get moved. The most notable riser is (unexpectedly)
Mike Santorelli, but a couple more names also appear at the bottom of the list. 

dregerprobtable

(via TSN.ca)

So Bernier, van Riemsdyk and Rielly have been added. Dreger notes that Bernier and van Riemsdyk are there because teams have been calling about them and Rielly is there to emphasize that he’s absolutely untouchable. Dreger also notes that Kessel and Phaneuf jump to at least a 50% possibility in the offseason, which is nice that we have the context that this is strictly a trade deadline related list.

Dreger again points out that he views Phil Kessel as a supporting player, which is always good for fuelling twitter rage, but he did also drop this tidbit at the top of his section on the Leafs:

“The Toronto Maple Leafs’ management will not state for the record that the franchise is in full overhaul mode. But it should be accepted as fact.”

Given Dreger’s family ties to the Leafs it’s looking more and more like a proper rebuild can be accepted as the new reality, which is nice and certainly makes the idea of moving players like Bernier, Phaneuf, and Kessel seem like a good idea.

Just like it was noted at the bottom of the recent post on Friedman’s 30 thoughts, Dreger tweeted out the bonus structure of Kessel’s next contract year. With the Leafs being able to immediately eat $4M of Kessel’s deal by moving him on July 2nd, it’s likely the market for him expands significantly at that point.

  • Jeremy Ian

    If the rebuild has any credibility, why are the top four not %100 to go? Why would the Leafs even think about keeping them as UFA’s? Get some picks and if they want to re-sign with the Leafs, do it in the summer.

    I just don’t see contenders going after Lupul with his injuries, or Phaneuf/Kessel given the cap hit and terms. Bozak is the most likely of the non-UFA’s.

    Man, I want March 2nd to come and go so we can get on with it, bring Leivo and Percy up, give Holland more minutes — see what we have with these younger guys for the remainder of the season. If Shanahan wants to “evaluate” he has to have them playing serious minutes.

    • Semantics. They’re not 100% because Dreger doesn’t want to be wrong, but we all know it’s pretty much 100%.

      That is, unless someone steps up and takes on a Phaneuf or a Kessel. Then they might want to use that new cap space to retain one or two of these guys. Not likely though, I give it a, oh, I don’t know, 15%?