Congratulations everyone, we did it. The tank was a success.
The Maple Leafs are now locked into the 27th overall in the standings – a truly horrible result – after the Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Philadelphia Flyers earlier this evening. The Hurricanes are now four points ahead of the Leafs with 71, and can no longer be caught.
That of course means that, according to this year’s NHL Entry Draft lottery rules, Toronto has the fourth-best chance, with 9.5%, at winning the first overall pick and the opportunity to draft Connor McDavid.
More after the jump…
Now, the sad reality is that it’s still very likely the Leafs pick fifth overall as opposed to fourth. We won’t get any true closure on the matter until the Draft Lottery is complete, but let’s go ahead and break down the odds now that we know them for certain.
- As previously stated, there’s a 9.5% chance the Leafs win the lottery and pick 1st overall.
- There’s a 45% chance that a team ahead of the Leafs wins the lottery, and Toronto keeps the 4th overall pick.
- There’s a 45.5% chance that one of the teams behind the Leafs wins the lottery, and Toronto picks 5th overall.
So, to be optimistic, there’s a 54.5% chance that the Leafs pick either first overall or fourth overall.
Either way, and even if they do end up picking fifth, the Leafs should pick up an elite-level prospect. Whether it be McDavid with the first pick, or one of Noah Hanifin, Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner with the fourth pick, Toronto could add a franchise cornerstone piece.