A Glimpse at the Offensive Numbers of Travis Dermott

It’s been almost a couple of weeks since the draft, and there is little question that it went remarkably well for the Maple Leafs. From the first round right through to the seventh there wasn’t a shortage of players drafted with the potential to be a high end player for Toronto. 

The one pick that seemed to leave many fans wanting was the 34th overall pick of Travis Dermott. The Leafs traded down twice, stockpiling assets along the way, but the moves always carried with them the guarantee that someone like Jansen Harkins, Daniel Sprong, or Oliver Kylington would still be available when the Leafs came to pick. All three were available when the pick was made, and with the Dermott decision came a couple of questions.

1. Why trade down twice then seemingly reach for a player instead of trading down further?

2. Are Dermott’s offensive numbers a product of the significant ice time Travis would see with McDavid?

The first question is easily dismissed through looking at how significantly different everyone seemed to rank this draft. McKeens and Future Considerations certainly had Dermott exactly in the rang where he went, but others like Corey Pronman of ESPN had him significantly lower in his rankings. It’s entirely possible the Leafs brass chose to go with the kid they would have seen more of and understand that 34th overall was perfectly reasonable for Dermott.

The larger question is whether or not Dermott’s numbers are attributed to playing with Connor McDavid, and the answer there is no. Looking at the November to January window where McDavid was out of the lineup due to his hand injury and World Junior commitment Dermott’s numbers actually improved. Granted, he still has Dylan Strome on his team, but since Strome doesn’t have the “generational talent” label attached to him we can just consider him a regular part of a good OHL team.

dermott

It’s safe to say that McDavid was probably didn’t hinder the offence of Dermott, but at least we know that there isn’t any significant drop off when McDavid was out. Of course, Dylan Strome is also very good, and with Dermott being the top minute guy on Erie’s defense (23.86 minutes according to CHLstats.com estimated time on ice) Strome would have been on the ice with Dermott as well.

For the sake of argument I pulled some of Travis Dermott’s other numbers from CHLstats and looked at how he compares to the other 17 year olds in the OHL last season, and offensively he is still very much near the top. Rasmus Andersson, Vince Dunn, Thomas Schemitsch and Mitchell Vande Sompel are the only players who regularly created more offence, and in the case of Vande Sompel he benefited from significant time as a forward.

dermottstatpack

These numbers are pretty solid when you consider that Travis Dermott is more of a two way defender than some of the other players at the top of the list, and his well rounded game may have given him the edge over other draft eligibles. 

From Corey Pronman:

He’s a two-way defenseman but his value is tiled more toward offense. He rarely forces plays, and makes good outlets under pressure. He’s slightly undersized, but Dermott does battle hard for pucks and shows fine defensive IQ. Overall, his defensive-zone play projects to be about average as a pro, although he’s been solid in that area as an OHLer.

Admittedly I was one of the naysayers on Dermott prior to the draft and he didn’t rank in the second round for me. I could easily produce five names I was more excited about at 34, but given the trust earned by Hunter, Dubas & Co. through the rest of the draft, and gaining a better understanding of the numbers behind Dermott, I would now consider him a prospect very much worth being excited about. The Prospect Cohort Success Model would seemingly agree with that assessment, as Dermott is given an impressive 31.25% chance of reaching 200 NHL games, and the NHL ppg of his comparables are .31 and they include Kevin Klein, Cam Fowler, Drew Doughty, along with former Leafs Carlo Colaiacovo, Tim Gleason, and Todd Gill. At this stage I’m not willing to believe the Leafs have the next Drew Doughty or even the next Cam Fowler on the hands, but the thought that Dermott could be a solid second pairing defender is a very good use of a second round pick.

  • SEER

    >but the thought that Dermott could be a solid second pairing defender is a very good use of a second pick.

    It is a “good” use of a second pick, but I thought our goal heading in to the draft was to try and hit home runs. Dermott doesn’t seem like the kind of guy with home run potential.

    He feels like a “safe” pick, which is kind of disappointing to me, considering the players taken in that range. I thought we were looking for home runs, and they used their second pick on what, on the surface, looks like a relatively “safe”/conservative pick.

    I’m no GM though, so I’ll trust them, as I liked most of the other picks.

    • I agree he’s a safer pick than what was advertised with late first, but I think the Leafs had their swing for the fences picks on Bracco, Korostelev, Dzierkals, and Timashov. A lot of those selections may be attributed to the fact that they had more picks to work with by trading down.

  • Gary Empey

    Initially I had an issue with the Leafs drafting Dermott with their 34th pick however the more I thought about it the more I realized it had nothing to do with Dermott but when he was drafted.

    What I needed to understand was because the Leafs traded down that they were able to snag Bracco with the 61st pick.

    And that I was upset because the Leafs took Dermott at 34 and Bracco at 61.

    I would have been happy had the Leafs took Bracco at 34 and Dermott at 61.

    Yet there’s zero actual difference between those two scenarios.

  • SEER

    Dermott is very under-rated & sometimes unnoticed by the press, in my opinion… Watch my Strome and McDavid videos.. and you will see a lot of “set-up man” potential in this kid… He’s really smart at deeking out the opposition… (often looking like he’s going to take a shot, when he already has a pass in mind)…

    I think if your were to talk with Strome & McDavid, that they would hold him very high, in the praise category..

    THE T-TRAIN: TRAVIS McDERMOTT MONTAGE

    —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=No_HWGxSuqc

    ..and for reference to my words above:

    ..ANOTHER STROME COMIN’: DYLAN STROME MONTAGE

    –> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmgV3CWiT8w

    FAST & FURIOUS: CONNOR McDAVID MONTAGE

    —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRcYGo4AHqM

    ——————–

    Also didn’t know where to throw todays’ new video, as you guys write as many blogs here in a day, as there were new subjects in the old Leaf board.. and the July 2nd signings blogs are pages ago…

    (by the way.. anyone have any idea if they will re-open it for the season start..? They still have “we’ll be right back” posted.. LOL!)

    P.A. POWER – PIERRE-ALEXANDRE PARENTEAU MONTAGE

    —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maRt-sgaWu8

    • MacTwoTimes

      Everyone give Seer Video a subscribe on YouTube. He uploads a TON of Leaf highlights, events, prospect videos etc. etc. and extremely quickly!

      P.S. Do some more vids with Monster Truck songs lol

      • SEER

        Thanks a bunch, Mac..!! I could use all the support possible.., as they still have me low on the list in the You-Tube/GOOGLE search menu, for channel.. and views.., yet there are many who have much less above me..?

        And I will go and blush now… New Sundin video made ,today..

  • MacTwoTimes

    now to be rid of bernier and maybe you got a team………..why be loaded down to a non proven goalie and pay him a large sum and contract for what I ask? that’s not rebuilding a team….he just made over 3.4 mil for what I don’t know…he is not a starter and hasn;t convince me he is….to blame the team in front for his lousy year past doesn;t cut it…..
    GET RID OF THE DEAD WEIGHT…..

  • SEER

    I don’t mind the Dermott pick at all. I mean yeah you want to see a team swing for the fences in the first couple rounds and go for who they believe has the best chance to be a star. However, it becomes a balancing act when you look at a player like Dermott and one like Kylington. For all we know the Leafs feel strongly that Dermott has a good chance to be a impact NHLer. They may have felt he is likely a 3-4 but has a high chance to reach that. They also may have felt Kylington has 1-2 potential but feel he’s unlikely to reach that. It then becomes a question of how to balance their potential and their chance of success. And I’m fine with that, as long as they feel like they can be high impact guys. The problem before with picks like Biggs and Gauthier was that yeah the Leafs felt they were high floor NHLers but the problem was their ceilings were defensive oriented 3rd and 4th liners with little offensive ability. If they had thought Gauthier was a future 50 point, great at defense 2nd liner nobody would have thought bad but because the pick was framed as great defensive 3rd liner with limited offense, the pick is suddenly bad for its spot.

  • SEER

    I only write this with hindsight. I could not cast my vote for Marner or Hanifin alone. I always hoped the dilemma would be solved by trading Kessel for the 5th. Having to choose, I felt having two elite forwards and one defender was a better core than one forward and two defenders. However, with the Leafs getting an elite forward (and 2016 1st) for Kessel, and getting other top-six / potential 1st rounders Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov and Korostelev, plus other small skilled scoring forwards Brown, Leipsic, Johnsson, Soshnikov, Hyman, plus Marner, Nylander and Kappanen = 12 small skill scoring forwards. Suddenly, Marner and Bracco become more expendable, and the huge gap between Rielly and the 2nd defenceman becomes a more urgent hole to fill. Also, I would trade for more size and 2-way especially at center. With hindsight, I would see more chance of a Cup parade with 2016 1st, plus defence starting with Rielly, Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson (with 34th) a line of Johnsson Nylander and Looke (instead of 5’9 Bracco), a line of Timanov Dergachev (instead of Nielsen) and Korostelev, a line of Dzierkals, Kapanen and Soshnikov, a line of Brown, Gauthier and Leivo and a line of Hyman, Bailly and Leipsic.

    • Harte of a Lion

      5 forward lines, must be pond hockey.

      Please remember that the players the Leafs drafted needed to possess more than a skill set, they needed to pass the Head Case test as well. It takes a certain character to play and be successful in this hockey mad city and I believe Mark Hunter has more skill at determining a players potential than you do neil, so until you are hired as a Pro Scout, I will wait and see how our drafted players are developed.
      This rebuild will take time. Dubas has admitted there are holes on defence to be filled, that’s what next years draft is for, and the year after that

      .

      What do you think a bubble team might pay for Kadri or JVR at trade deadline if they feel that is the missing piece? Perhaps a 1st and a top D prospect? Perhaps even more?

      Finally I can NOT believe you called Marner expendable? I wonder if Detroit ever thought that way about Sevie Y.

      As I always remind myself, “Opinions are like A$$holes, everybody has one”.

      Keep the faith, Go Leafs!

  • SEER

    I was not happy with this safe pick when better played were available (kylington/sprong/konecny/roy (if they didn’t trade down) but they better hope he turns out great because the first two being passed is sickening. I have a strong feeling they were highly confident in Roy falling to them before the Sharks traded up to grab him. this is a very gauthier pick. highly likely to be an nhl player but how good if he if he’s your high 2nd rounder?! he probably would’ve been available later while better talent was there for the taking. the nielsen pick is baffling. I don’t understand that one at all. it looks like a Burke pick tbh. i hope I’m wrong.