#AfterAuston: Dillon Dube

Today we profile 5″10′ Kelowna Rockets C/W Dillon Dube, a player skilled both offensively and defensively.  Likelier to be drafted in the second round than the first, let’s take a look both at Dube’s game and Dube’s numbers in an attempt to figure out whether he’d be a good player for the organization to take.

THE QUALITATIVE

Dube has the skill-set of someone that could be a legitimate top-six forward in the NHL some day.  He’s got NHL speed and acceleration, is a crafty puck-handler, makes creative passes, has a solid wrist shot, and is generally someone that does a lot of offensive play-driving.

All that said, there’s a definite lack of polish to his game.  He definitely has a tendency to be erratic and inconsistent in the plays that he makes with the puck.  I don’t mean inconsistent in the sense that he disappears for long stretches either, I mean inconsistent in the sense that he often tries to get too fancy, reacts poorly to defensive pressure, and/or has trouble executing attempted offensive plays.  It’s a fair and legitimate concern and is something that he’ll need to improve upon if he’s going to reach his upside.

Still though, there’s enough raw talent there – and in a lot of ways it really is raw.  But if he can polish his play with the puck, there’s real and meaningful upside.  Not star talent upside, but meaningful top-six ability.

Here’s ESPN’s Corey Pronman on Dube, who he has ranked 44th:

One of . . . Kelowna’s top players this season,
Dube played all situations effectively. He’s a very good skater with a powerful
first few steps, and he brings a high level of energy to most shifts. Despite
subpar size, he battles for pucks effectively, kills penalties well and will
throw a few hits around too. When he’s on his scoring game, he can dangle, set
his teammates up and score from outside the paint. You see flashes of top-end
skill from Dube, but it isn’t there consistently, which makes me wonder if he
has the top-level offensive hockey sense to put up big numbers in the NHL. He
probably ends up as a bottom-six forward in the NHL.

So, as we can see, there’s definite raw talent there with Dube.  But he needs to polish his game to reach his upside.

THE QUANTITATIVE

Dube has good numbers.  On a basic level, his 1.02 points per game is solid, and puts him 4th on his team.

Dube also stacks up well with another late first/early second-type WHL forward, Tyler Benson:

Screen Shot 2016-06-04 at 11.12.44 AM

Maybe the best number I’ve got on Dube is his pGPS numbers.  Dube has a pGPS of 46.00%, which is above average, putting him ahead of names like Abramov, Kunin, Jones, Laberge, Howden, Steel, and Benson, all of whom hover in the early-to-mid 30s range.  His pGPS P/G of 0.53301 is standard in comparison to the aforementioned names.

SHOULD THE LEAFS BE INTERESTED?

In my opinion, because of his legitimate top-six upside, yes.  The number of players the Leafs will be able to take in the 29-31 range that have tangible top-six forward, top-four defenseman, or starting goalie skill will be small.  He probably won’t be the best name available in this range – again, guys like Abramov and Mascherin are like better versions of Dube – but he’d reflect a high-upside pick.  For that reason he’d be a solid addition to the organization’s prospect pool.

More #AfterAuston Profiles:

  • FlareKnight

    Wouldn’t mind taking a crack at him with the Washington second rounder if he’s on the board that far in the second round. Not sure I’d be gunning for him with that early of a second round pick.

    But you never know. There is a lot of skill there so certainly someone to consider.

  • Gary Empey

    Here is my hot five picks for our two 30/31 spots. In this order if still on the board.

    30/31 – Max Jones,

    30/31 – Adam Mascherin

    30/31 – Sam Steel

    30/31 – Pascal Laberge

    30/31 – Alex DeBrincat

  • FlareKnight

    After a draft, I’d like to see a table showing where all of these players you are profiling ended being drafted and by whom. I think it would make for an interesting comparison and validation of your rankings.