NHLe is a neat little stat that helps you, on a very basic level, project how the production of a given player would translate to the NHL. And since there are NHL translation numbers available across many leagues, perhaps more useful in NHLe is the fact that it allows you to compare prospects in a given draft class across leagues.
It has its limitations, though, and it’s not any sort of catch-all statistic. Still, it’s more grist for our mill, and can be useful on a basic level for fans and scouts alike.
Without further ado, what I’ve done is calculate the NHLe for 65 of the top-rated prospects in this year’s draft class. So, a player’s given NHLe number is what the tool says a player’s production would be translated to an 82 game NHL season.
The list isn’t meant to really influence your views or anything like that but rather give you just a few more numbers to have at your disposal so you can enjoy this year’s draft a teeny bit more.
Here you go ( * = European Rankings)
FORWARDS
| Player | Rank | League | Position | NHLe | |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 2 | OHL | LW | 49 | |
| Alex DeBrincat | 21 | OHL | RW | 44 | |
| Auston Matthews | 1* | NLA | C | 42 | |
| Dylan Gambrell | 67 | NCHC | C | 39 | |
| Adam Brooks | 72 | WHL | C | 37 | |
| Alex Nylander | 3 | OHL | LW | 35 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1 | QMJHL | LW | 34 | |
| Brayden Burke | 63 | WHL | LW | 34 | |
| Logan Brown | 7 | OHL | C | 33 | |
| Adam Mascherin | 42 | OHL | RW | 33 | |
| Vitali Abramov | 29 | QMJHL | RW | 31 | |
| Taylor Raddysh | 36 | OHL | LW/RW | 29 | |
| Michael McLeod | 13 | OHL | C | 28 | |
| Luke Kunin | 11 | Big-10 | C/W | 27 | |
| Tage Thompson | 20 | Hockey-East | RW | 27 | |
| Pascal Laberge | 28 | QMJHL | RW | 26 | |
| Will Bitten | 43 | OHL | C/RW | 25 | |
| Nathan Bastian | 35 | OHL | RW | 24 | |
| Maxime Fortier | 145 | QMJHL | RW | 24 | |
| Julien Gauthier | 12 | QMJHL | RW | 23 | |
| Max Jones | 14 | OHL | LW | 22 | |
| Sam Steel | 30 | WHL | C | 22 | |
| Dillon Dube | 41 | WHL | C/W | 22 | |
| Noah Gregor | 45 | WHL | C | 22 | |
| Simon Stransky | 48 | WHL | LW | 22 | |
| Brett Howden | 22 | WHL | C | 21 | |
| Tyler Benson | 24 | WHL | LW | 21 | |
| Boris Katchouk | 25 | OHL | LW | 21 | |
| Jordan Kyrou | 34 | OHL | RW | 21 | |
| Dmitri Sokolov | 129 | OHL | RW | 20 | |
| Yegor Korshkov | 7* | KHL | RW | 19 | |
| Vladimir Kuznetsov | 55 | QMJHL | W | 18 | |
| Jack Kopacka | 33 | OHL | LW | 17 | |
| Timothy Gettinger | 37 | OHL | LW | 17 | |
| Hudson Elyniuk | 68 | WHL | LW | 17 | |
| Patrik Laine | 2* | SM-Liiga | LW | 17 | |
| Givani Smith | 54 | OHL | LW | 16 | |
| Jordan Stallard | 65 | WHL | C | 16 | |
| Carl Grundstrom | 6* | SHL | LW | 16 | |
| Carsen Twarynski | 64 | WHL | 15 | ||
| Nicholas Caamano | 69 | OHL | RW | 15 | |
| Cliff Pu | 75 | OHL | C/W | 13 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi | 3* | SM-Liiga | RW | 13 | |
| Rasmus Asplund | 4* | SHL | LW | 13 | |
| Beck Malenstyn | 73 | WHL | C/W | 8 | |
- As we can see, one of the limitations of NHLe is that it often undervalues younger players playing in European leagues. Laine has an NHLe of 17 and Puljujarvi has an NHLe of 13.
- I’m gonna go full confirmation bias here and say the table further backs up the idea of Adam Mascherin and Vitali Abramov as two overlooked players in this draft. They’re the first to pop up among the consensus group of elite forwards in this draft (Gambrell and Brooks technically are but they’re not first-time draft-eligibles).
- Just giving the table a quick scan it’s comforting to know that the more you produce, the higher you’re typically going to be ranked. The aforementioned limitations of NHLe with younger players in European leagues toys with this a little bit, but for the most part, the further down the list you go the less enticing the names are.
DEFENSEMEN
| Player | Rank | League | Position | NHLe | |
| Samuel Girard | 38 | QMJHL | LD | 24 | |
| Cam Dineen | 39 | OHL | LD | 23 | |
| Mikhail Sergachyov | 8 | OHL | LD | 22 | |
| Jakob Chychrun | 4 | OHL | LD | 21 | |
| Charlie McAvoy | 6 | Hockey-East | RD | 21 | |
| Jake Bean | 15 | WHL | LD | 21 | |
| Frederic Allard | 32 | QMJHL | RD | 20 | |
| Olli Juolevi | 5 | OHL | LD | 19 | |
| David Quenneville | 144 | WHL | RD | 19 | |
| Lucas Johansen | 26 | WHL | LD | 16 | |
| Victor Mete | 74 | OHL | LD | 15 | |
| Kale Clague | 27 | WHL | LD | 14 | |
| Maxime Lajoie | 44 | WHL | LD | 13 | |
| Luke Green | 40 | QMJHL | RD | 12 | |
| Markus Niemelainen | 52 | OHL | LD | 11 | |
| Sean Day | 59 | OHL | LD | 10 | |
| Riley Stillman | 66 | OHL | LD | 9 | |
| Libor Hajek | 31 | WHL | LD | 8 | |
| Logan Stanley | 19 | OHL | LD | 7 | |
| Keaton Middleton | 71 | OHL | LD | 3 | |
- Cam Dineen, Frederic Allard, and David Quenneville are all names I hear at least some people say are underrated and the production level certainly backs that up. In the case of Quenneville, his draft stock is really hurt by the fact that he’s 5″8′.
- Girard, obviously, is also very productive, and similar to Quenneville size is maybe the biggest detractor there (he’s 5″9′). I only saw him once this year, in the top prospects game, so I really can’t speak to him. But as a guy who’s liked by most as a late first-rounder, the production certainly provides further intrigue.
- Charlie McAvoy’s numbers compare quite nicely with the other top defensemen in this draft.
- I’m not big on Libor Hajek or Logan Stanley because I don’t think there’s enough offense or general puck skills to make them more than bottom-pairing guys in the NHL. Obviously, the numbers back that up in this case.
CONCLUSION
There are no conclusions to be made from this. NHLe is a useful surface-level tool, particularly because it allows you to adjust for league and better compare prospects across them. This article is more just a way to make some of the NHLe numbers for this draft class more available so you can have them at your disposable and make your own judgments based off of them.
*=among European skaters
NHLe is way off for Matthews.
Take Eichel who scored 56 NHL rookie points and expect more from Matthews. Matthews out scored Eichel by a significant margin at the same age.
I am expecting 60-70 points for Matthews next year.
It will be interesting to compare the top 3 draft picks production next year but expect big things from Matthews who was nearly the MVP of the NLA and put up impressive numbers there.
It depends on the situation you come into as well. Matthews should have a good chance to put up points right away because he will likely be given every chance to. He could be the top line centre by seasons end and I imagine he will start on the top powerplay with the Leafs because they just don’t have many other better options. Eichel, on the other hand, started in a situation where Buffalo already had some other fairly established centers and offensive players in general and he wasn’t relied on as heavily. I think Eichel will be looked to more this year and probably put up some pretty good totals.
Matthews may get increased responsibility, but Kadri will get “1st line” duties for the duration of next season. In other words, Kadri will get the toughest minutes.
That may be but the NHLe ratings for Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi are embarrassingly off at 17 and 13 points respectively. If those two players play full NHL seasons they will both top 30 points no problem. If things go well for them they could both top 50 points.
60-70 is a reach with the lineup the Leafs will have.
40-50 is more believable.
the non-CHL numbers are obviously not ‘adjusted’ properly; I think they should ‘adjust’ based on the points in international tournaments. also strange is not adjusting for over-agers and under-sized players. last year’s list was ten times better, with only provorov mis-rated. obviously, laine, matthews and puljujarvi are at one level, tkachuk and nylander at the next. asplund, benson and korshkov are question marks. dahlen should be at the next level, with grundstrom and mascherin. it looks like mascherin and dineen will be the steals.
As an Oilers fan, I think you need to take a step back, way too much is expected of these players. When Hall started playing for the Oilers, I use to watch teams 3rd and 4th line players going after him, whacking his wrists when ever they could. He took a real beating while the reffs turned a blind eye.
Rookies don’t get protected by the reff’s as a rule.
The 2 players that drove McDavid into the boards and caused him to miss half the season could have slowed down, they chose to make sure he was hurt instead. and they were , yes you got it, grinders.
As a top draft pick he will be a marked man, yes he is big and strong, but playing against bigger and much physically stronger and meaner players in the NHL will take some getting used to.
The one thing he has going for him is he is playing in the east, The West might have finally lost the Stanley Cup but its still the tougher of the two divisions.