Potential new names, similar expectations for Leafs goaltenders

It’s no secret the Leafs have established a nice stable of prospects over the last couple years, and those key pieces like Matthews, Nylander, and Marner are at the front of all the hype around this rebuild, as they should be. But Toronto is also wading through the process of turning over the old names from the Burke & Nonis Show, and as such have now started to put together a new supporting cast to go along with these blue chippers.

There are still a few more names yet to be booted from roster, but in just the last four months Lou and company have turned over their NHL goaltender scene completely. Out are Reimer and Bernier, with Freddie Andersen now taking the reigns as the team’s number one, along with strong speculation of Jhonas Enroth coming aboard. If this is the way things shake out – with Andersen and Enroth being the actual tandem – are the Leafs truly going to be better off in the crease? Or is this simply about getting some fresh names in there, an example of a front office bringing in “their guys” for the sake of it?

When we take a glance at the numbers, it appears the latter is true. Well, sort of.

As far as the tag-team battle between Reimer/Bernier and Andersen/Enroth goes, it would probably be difficult to pick a clear winner right now. The latter combo is a tad younger, with Andersen and Enroth being 28 and 26 years old, respectively (versus 28 and 27 for Reimer and Bernier). But in terms of career numbers to date, both pairs seem to have performed about the same with what they’ve been given in opportunities.

First off, simply looking at save-percentage in all situations for these guys, here’s how the two tandems stack up in all their NHL experience. [Again, this is assuming reports are correct and Toronto will land Enroth.]

GA SA SV SV%
BERNIER     529 6189 5660  0.915 
REIMER 541 6326 5785 0.914
TOTAL 1070   12515   11445   0.915

GA SA SV SV%
ENROTH 379   4238   3859   0.911
ANDERSEN    271 3305 3034 0.918  
TOTAL  650 7543 6893 0.914

So historically each pair has performed at a league-average level, which is absolutely fine. If Enroth and Andersen can continue that sort of clip for Toronto, the team should be in decent shape. But it’s clear there’s no real evidence of an upgrade here yet.

As for their performance at even-strength, again this looks to be a wash when we look at career totals.

GA SA SV Sv%
REIMER 372  5003 4631 0.9256  
BERNIER     370  4736  4366  0.9219 
TOTAL 742 9739 8997 0.924

GA SA SV Sv%
ENROTH 252   3330 3078 0.9243 
ANDERSEN 191 2559 2368 0.9254
TOTAL 443 5889   5446   0.925

So we can see that, save-percentage-wise, these combos aren’t really separable. But there are other metrics out there that could broaden the picture here a bit.

Going by Quality Starts, developed by Rob Vollman (author of the Hockey Abstract) as “Starts with sv% greater than the average sv% for the year, or at least .880 on nights with fewer than 20 shots“, we can stack up these guys again. We’ll obviously want to look at percentage of Quality Starts (QS%), given the range of experience for these guys. 

GS QS QS%
BERNIER    194   106   0.546  
REIMER 196 102 0.520
TOTAL 390 208 0.533

GS QS   QS%
ANDERSEN   114   68 0.596 
ENROTH 128 71 0.555
TOTAL 242 139 0.574

The guidelines for Quality Start Percentage, as pointed out by Hockey-Reference, are as follows: Greater than 60% is considered very good, below 50% is bad, and the league average is about 53%. With that framework in mind, Reimer and Bernier collectively float around average while the potential new pair are much closer to that magical “good” territory.

If Quality Starts is something you see value in (which Cam Charron dipped into a few times here at this site), then the Andersen/Enroth duo looks like a bit of a safer choice for the Leafs than what they’ve had before. Considering their combined cap hits could ring in lower than the $7.55-million Reimer and Bernier will cost this upcoming season, and they’re just a shade younger, fans should have peace of mind that the team is likely upgrading (albeit only slightly) and not taking a step back from what was an already decent goaltending situation.

  • Trevor5555

    Looking at career sv% is not necessarily going to tell you who the best goalie is right now. Last years numbers give the best representation of where each goalie is currently.

    The important thing is which goalie will be better for the next 5 years. It looks like Toronto got a significant upgrade over the quality of goaltending they got last season, even compared to Reimer who I think is a pretty good keeper.

    Torontos GAA last year was 2.76. Andersens was 2.3 and Enroths was 2.2 which gives a good indication of the improvement Toronto can expect. Torontos sv% was about .910 whereas Andersen and Enroth were both above .920 and Andersen has been above .920 in 3 straight seasons.

    I think those numbers are a better representation of what Toronto can expect. Aside from the most recent trend in each goalies play Toronto had to make a goalie change for team morale as Bernier had lost the trust of the group and a fresh start was needed. Regarding Reimer he may have wanted to persue different options as well but most importantly Toronto needed a clean slate for both of its keepers. They just happened to get much better keepers in the process.

    They wanted a clear #1 and #2 as well as opposed to 2 guys gunning for the starting job. Reimer clearly wants a starting gig and Andersen was Toronto’s guy.

    Andersen still has to prove he can play well for Toronto as does Enroth, but the numbers suggest Toronto might be able to trim .5 off of their GAA and add 10 points to their sv%. Andersen is only 26 so theoretically he could get better.

    With the improved goalie tandem suggested by the numbers along with a better team Toronto might be able to trim 30-40 goals off of their GA total from last year which would be huge. Thats extrapolated from Andersen and Enroths most recent GAA compared to Bernier and Reimers.

    So the numbers tell me a different story.

  • Gary Empey

    What is missing when using these stats is how the team rated defensively. A portion of these stats are a team stat as well. I am sure any goalies stats will change depending on which team they were playing for. Save-percentage has to change when a goalie has a good defense core and forwards that backcheck/forecheck. For me I need to see the goalie actually perform to get a better overall feel of how good he is.

    When the team makes a big defensive error, making that big stop that no one would blame him if he didn’t, is hard to calculate on stats alone. These type of stops lift the team up.

    On the flip side letting in a soft goal deflating the team, doesn’t show up on the stats.

    Using these stats it shows Bernier and Reimer even. No one who has watched the Leafs the last couple of years believes they are even.

    After watching the highlights of Andersen I think I know why Lamoriello thinks he is our goalie of the future. He makes a lot of unbelievable stops sometimes. The more pressure the better he gets. The Leafs should be able to create some pressure for him every night.

    It would have been nice if Reimer was able to stay and backup Andersen. Bernier’s contract got in the way.

  • Ryan,

    Think you’re off to a great start with your analysis. Unfortunately, the data set lets you down a bit in that it gives no indication of shot quality against. Long story short, equal save percentages are not always truly equal, nor are they indicative of parity in goaltending.

    Looking at the xG model from Corsica, over the last 3 seasons combined, Andersen and Enroth have faced relatively more difficult shots on average than Bernier and Reimer, yet Andersen has posted the highest save percentage among the four. Reimer had a great season, but an Andersen/Enroth combo is likely the best tandem Toronto has seen in some time.

  • SEER

    Trevor Moore /
    Left Wing / Shoots L /
    Born Mar 31 1995 / Thousand Oaks, CA. /
    21 yrs. ago /
    Height 5.10 / Weight 175

    RECENT STATS:

    2012-13 – Tri-City Storm – USHL
    62 Games… 20 Goals… 43 Assists… 63 Points… -20 *PPG+
    ————
    2013-14 – University Of Denver Pioneers – NCHC
    42 Games… 14 Goals… 18 Assists… 32 Points… +/- 0

    2014-15 – Univ. Of Denver Pioneers – NCHC
    39 Games… 22 Goals… 22 Assists… 44 Points… +/19 *PPG+

    2015-16 – Univ. Of Denver Pioneers – NCHC
    40 Games… 11 Goals… 33 Assists… 44 Points… +16 *PPG+

    * July 9th 2016 Leafs Prospects Camp Scrimmage (1 goal + 2 assists) *3PPG

    Jacked: Trevor Moore 2012-2016 Extended Highlights – TML (HD)

    —> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3eoZkkDCk4