TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #9 Travis Dermott

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Today’s prospect is the well-rounded Travis Dermott, a representative of Canada at the World Juniors and a star defenseman in the OHL this season. Let’s take a look and see what he brings to the table.

THE VOTES

Jeff Ryan H. Shawn Ryan F. Adam Dom Jess Katy Readers
13 12 14 7 10 8 11 10 9

Dermott was #6 in our 2015 Rankings, and the same rank in our 2016 Midterms.

PLAYER BIO

Position Hometown Height Weight Hand 2015 Team Acquired
D Newmarket, ON 5’11 196 L Erie Ottters 2015 Draft (2-34)

THE STATS

 SEASON Age TEAM LEAGUE GP G A TP NHLe PIM +/-
 2011-12 15  York Simcoe Express Mn Mdgt AAA   ETAMMHL 19 2 7 9 N/A 12  
 2012-13 16  Newmarket Hurricanes  OJHL 53 1 14 15 3.02 24  
 2013-14 17  Erie Otters  OHL 67 3 25 28 10.97 45 35
 2014-15 18  Erie Otters  OHL 61 8 37 45 19.36 53 23
 2015-16 19  Erie Otters   OHL 51 6 37 43 22.12 65 36

When Dermott put up a solid 45 points in 61 games for Erie in his draft year, the concern for a lot of people was that his numbers were inflated from having played on a high-flying Otters team led by Connor McDavid. After improving his pace and putting up 43 points in 51 games this season, it looks like Dermott is a perfectly good player in his own right.

PROJECTION STATS

pGPSn pGPSs pGPS% pGPS PPG pGPS PP82 pGPSr
38 (9/18) 11 (12/18) 28.9% (12/18) 0.42 (15/18) 34.70 (15/18) 12.25 (12/18)

  • pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
  • pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
  • pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
  • pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
  • pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
  • pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

Based on the success of his historical comparables, Dermott is projected to become a top pairing defenceman.

To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.

THE EYE TEST

Dermott is:

  • a good (not great) skater with solid all-around speed and quickness
  • a good (not great) puck-handler that has solid poise and puck-moving ability
  • a good (not great) defender who typically understands his defensive assignments
  • a good (not great) offensive defenseman that can jump up and help his team score, though he’s not a flashy player
  • someone with great intangibles

Basically, Dermott is one of those “not great at anything but good at everything” type of defenders, similar in a lot of respects to former Leafs prospects Stuart Percy and Matt Finn.

AS SEEN ON TV

THE BUILDUP

Dermott’s a bit of a late-bloomer, having played only three OHL seasons instead of four, requiring some extra seasoning in the OJHL before finally making the jump to the Otters.

From there he played a depth role on a strong Otters team in 13-14, and did so again in 14-15 leading up to the draft, where the Leafs would take him 34th overall.

Last season, with a trio of veteran defenders graduating from Erie, Dermott was able to step into the spotlight for the Otters, making an appearance for Canada at the World Juniors before helping lead his team to the conference finals in the OHL playoffs, where his team lost to the eventual Memorial Cup champion London Knights.

NEXT SEASON

Dermott’s set to graduate to the Toronto Marlies for the upcoming season, joining a young blueline that also figures to include names like Viktor Loov, Rinat Valiev, Andrew Nielsen, and Justin Holl. He’ll likely play a depth role for the team, but with the Marlies blueline looking a little thinner this season without T.J. Brennan – in combination with the many young names joining him on the blueline – there will be some opportunity to earn an important role with the team.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Dermott comes in at #9 and not higher because of a lack of a stand-out quality to his game. And while you can be a great NHL player by way of being well-rounded, Dermott’s not well-rounded enough that I’m confident he has a long-term NHL future.

That said, depending on how he looks heading into next season, he could earn a ranking a lot higher up in the future.

I’ll also say this: compared to Stuart Percy and Matt Finn at this point in their development, Dermott comes out in front. He’s a better skater than both and has more offensive flair to his game.

So, we’ll see how Dermott does this season and re-assess from there. In the meantime, he’s just an alright prospect.

THE RANKINGS SO FAR