Today’s prospect is the well-rounded Travis Dermott, a representative of Canada at the World Juniors and a star defenseman in the OHL this season. Let’s take a look and see what he brings to the table.
THE VOTES
| Jeff | Ryan H. | Shawn | Ryan F. | Adam | Dom | Jess | Katy | Readers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
Dermott was #6 in our 2015 Rankings, and the same rank in our 2016 Midterms.
PLAYER BIO
| Position | Hometown | Height | Weight | Hand | 2015 Team | Acquired |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | Newmarket, ON | 5’11 | 196 | L | Erie Ottters | 2015 Draft (2-34) |
THE STATS
| SEASON | Age | TEAM | LEAGUE | GP | G | A | TP | NHLe | PIM | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 15 | York Simcoe Express Mn Mdgt AAA | ETAMMHL | 19 | 2 | 7 | 9 | N/A | 12 | |
| 2012-13 | 16 | Newmarket Hurricanes | OJHL | 53 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 3.02 | 24 | |
| 2013-14 | 17 | Erie Otters | OHL | 67 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 10.97 | 45 | 35 |
| 2014-15 | 18 | Erie Otters | OHL | 61 | 8 | 37 | 45 | 19.36 | 53 | 23 |
| 2015-16 | 19 | Erie Otters | OHL | 51 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 22.12 | 65 | 36 |
When Dermott put up a solid 45 points in 61 games for Erie in his draft year, the concern for a lot of people was that his numbers were inflated from having played on a high-flying Otters team led by Connor McDavid. After improving his pace and putting up 43 points in 51 games this season, it looks like Dermott is a perfectly good player in his own right.
PROJECTION STATS
| pGPSn | pGPSs | pGPS% | pGPS PPG | pGPS PP82 | pGPSr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 (9/18) | 11 (12/18) | 28.9% (12/18) | 0.42 (15/18) | 34.70 (15/18) | 12.25 (12/18) |
- pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
- pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
- pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
- pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
- pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
- pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.
Based on the success of his historical comparables, Dermott is projected to become a top pairing defenceman.
To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.
THE EYE TEST
Dermott is:
- a good (not great) skater with solid all-around speed and quickness
- a good (not great) puck-handler that has solid poise and puck-moving ability
- a good (not great) defender who typically understands his defensive assignments
- a good (not great) offensive defenseman that can jump up and help his team score, though he’s not a flashy player
- someone with great intangibles
Basically, Dermott is one of those “not great at anything but good at everything” type of defenders, similar in a lot of respects to former Leafs prospects Stuart Percy and Matt Finn.
AS SEEN ON TV
THE BUILDUP
Dermott’s a bit of a late-bloomer, having played only three OHL seasons instead of four, requiring some extra seasoning in the OJHL before finally making the jump to the Otters.
From there he played a depth role on a strong Otters team in 13-14, and did so again in 14-15 leading up to the draft, where the Leafs would take him 34th overall.
Last season, with a trio of veteran defenders graduating from Erie, Dermott was able to step into the spotlight for the Otters, making an appearance for Canada at the World Juniors before helping lead his team to the conference finals in the OHL playoffs, where his team lost to the eventual Memorial Cup champion London Knights.
NEXT SEASON
Dermott’s set to graduate to the Toronto Marlies for the upcoming season, joining a young blueline that also figures to include names like Viktor Loov, Rinat Valiev, Andrew Nielsen, and Justin Holl. He’ll likely play a depth role for the team, but with the Marlies blueline looking a little thinner this season without T.J. Brennan – in combination with the many young names joining him on the blueline – there will be some opportunity to earn an important role with the team.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Dermott comes in at #9 and not higher because of a lack of a stand-out quality to his game. And while you can be a great NHL player by way of being well-rounded, Dermott’s not well-rounded enough that I’m confident he has a long-term NHL future.
That said, depending on how he looks heading into next season, he could earn a ranking a lot higher up in the future.
I’ll also say this: compared to Stuart Percy and Matt Finn at this point in their development, Dermott comes out in front. He’s a better skater than both and has more offensive flair to his game.
So, we’ll see how Dermott does this season and re-assess from there. In the meantime, he’s just an alright prospect.
THE RANKINGS SO FAR
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #10 Nikita Soshnikov
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #11 Jeremy Bracco
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #12 Brendan Leipsic
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #13 Zach Hyman
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #14 Carl Grundstrom
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #15 Andrew Nielsen
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #16 Tobias Lindberg
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #17 Yegor Korshkov
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #18 Adam Brooks
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #19 Kasimir Kaskisuo
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #20 Garret Sparks
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: 10 players who received no votes from us
- TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: Honourable Mentions
So he might be a Vlassic, Seabrook, Bouwmeester type defensemen. That’s good.
Or more realistically, he could become the next Finn or Percy and never really make the jump to the NHL. It’s hard to tell with young defencemen.
“Based on the success of his historical comparables, Dermott is projected to become a third line forward.”
Uh…
My coffee hasn’t kicked in yet
I just want one of these kids we pick up in the late first round or second round to pan out. Blacker, Finn, Percy, Biggs, McKegg. Ross, Olden all busts. Yes I realize McKegg and Olden were thirds but still. I’m routing for you Dermott!
Ross and McKegg weren’t busts, they went into witness protection under the names Martin Marincin and Zach Hyman 😉
Travis Dermott is the Leafs saviour.
I just want one of these kids we pick up in the late first round or second round to pan out. Blacker, Finn, Percy, Biggs, McKegg. Ross, Olden all busts. Yes I realize McKegg and Olden were thirds but still. I’m routing for you Dermott!
I think the Leafs are expecting Dermott and/or Nielson to be Leaf regulars in the near future. It will depend on how quickly they adjust to the speed and quickness at the professional level.
Just want to say thanks for adding the player bio and stats tables! I was asking for those in the comments for a few years, they’re great 🙂
Dermott’s Vision: All Travis Dermott’s 2015-16 Season Goals & Highlights – TML
—> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aQn5d3X3MQ
I think I need to see him play more, but I’m not sure if he makes the Leafs roster during his ELC. I like the fact that he’s a smart player, but not being the biggest guy, his defense needs to be air tight. On the left side, he has Lööv, Valiev, Marincin, Nielsen to contend with, and they are good defensively.
I think he can become an NHL regular, just might not be with the Leafs.