TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #7 Andreas Johnson

TLN7

When you think of Swedish superstar forwards drafted in the seventh round, who exactly comes to mind? No, I’m not talking about Henrik Zetterberg or Daniel Alfredsson.  

Andreas Johnson clocks in at number seven on our 2016 top prospects list, and for good reason.  Johnson is a very exciting prospect who has often been looked over by the media.  In case you have not been paying close attention to the SHL, Johnson has been an offensive force to be reckoned with for Frölunda HC over the past two seasons, dominating in front of the net and lighting up the league.  Johnson is ready to make the transition to North America and potentially has a shot of making the Leafs out of training camp next season.  

Without further adieu, ranked at number seven, here is our prospect profile on Andreas Johnson.  

THE VOTES

Jeff Ryan H. Shawn Ryan F. Adam Dom Jess Katy Readers
7 7 9 16 6 10 5 8 10

Andreas Johnson was ranked number seven in both our 2014 and 2015 top prospect series.

PLAYER BIO 

Position Hometown Height Weight Hand 2015 Team Acquired
LW Gavle, SWE 5’10 183 L Frolunda (SHL) 2013 Draft (7-202)

THE STATS 

 SEASON Age TEAM LEAGUE GP G A TP NHLe PIM +/-
 2009-10 15  Frölunda HC U16  U16 SM 8 11 6 17 N/A 6 N/A
  15  Frölunda HC J18  J18 Elit 5 1 1 2 5.25 0 N/A
 2010-11 16  Frölunda HC J18  J18 Elit 12 9 9 18 19.68 8 N/A
  16  Frölunda HC J18  J18 Allsvenskan 15 14 13 27 23.61 18 N/A
  16  Frölunda HC J20  SuperElit 30 9 5 14 7.65 4 N/A
 2011-12 17  Frölunda HC J18  J18 Elit 3 3 5 8 34.99 2 10
  17  Frölunda HC J18  J18 Allsvenskan 3 6 0 6 26.24 2 3
  17  Frölunda HC J20  SuperElit 42 19 13 32 12.49 75 17
 2012-13 18  Frölunda HC J20  SuperElit 42 23 31 54 21.09 54 29
  18  Frölunda HC  SHL 7 1 0 1 7.02 0 0
  18  Sweden U19 (all)  International-Jr 4 2 3 5 N/A 8 2
 2013-14 19  Frölunda HC J20  SuperElit 4 1 4 5 20.5 0 1
  19  Frölunda HC  SHL 44 15 9 24 26.83 2 -1
  19  Sweden U20  WJC-20 7 3 3 6 38.66 6 5
  19  Sweden U20 (all)  International-Jr 15 9 4 13 N/A 10 9
 2014-15 20  Frölunda HC  SHL 55 22 13 35 31.31 34 5
  20  Sweden  EHT 3 1 0 1 N/A 2 1
  20  Sweden (all)  International 3 1 0 1 N/A 2 1
 2015-16 21  Frölunda HC   SHL 52 19 25 44 41.63 20 8
  21  Toronto Marlies  AHL 0 0 0 0 N/A 0 0
  21  Sweden  EHT 2 0 1 1 N/A 0 0
  21  Sweden (all)  International 2 0 1 1 N/A 0 0

PROJECTION STATS  

pGPSn pGPSs pGPS% pGPS PPG pGPS PP82 pGPSr
26 (13/18) 10 (13/18) 38.5% (7/18) 0.87 (2/18) 71.60 (2/18) 33.58 (4/18)
  • pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
  • pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
  • pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
  • pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
  • pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
  • pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

Based on the success of his historical comparables, Johnson is projected to become a second line forward.

To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.

THE EYE TEST   

Andreas Johnson is typically described as an undersized, skilled forward.  He is able to effectively control the puck in all areas of the ice, particularly in front of the net.  He has an above-average shot as well, and excels when positioned in front of/near the opponent’s net.   

Johnson is also a very opportunistic player.  His energy on the ice makes him very exciting to watch, and he is very quick on his feet.  His knowledge of the game is remarkable; he is able to process the game at a high speed and can anticipate his opponent’s next moves.  

AS SEEN ON TV  

THE BUILDUP 

Andreas Johnson has played hockey in Sweden for his entire career.  He began in the Swedish junior leagues in 2009-10 where he soon rose from U16 to U18 in a matter of months and caught the attention of many scouts.   Johnson was drafted by the Leafs in the seventh round of the 2013 NHL entry draft at 202nd overall. He played his first full SHL season in 2013-14, a year after his NHL draft year, and scored 24 points in 44 games, winning the SHL’s Rookie of the Year award in 2014. He went on to play another two seasons in the SHL. 

READ MORE: Leafs sign Andreas Johnson to entry level contract

In the 2015-16 season, Johnson scored a total of 44 points (19 goals, 25 assists) in 52 SHL games. After a tough battle in the playoffs, his team (Fröulanda HC) went on to win the SHL championship.  

He joined the Marlies amidst their playoff run near the end of last season.  Johnson only had the opportunity to participate in two AHL games before being sidelined by a head injury, caused by a blindsided elbow to the head by Dan Kelly of the Albany Devils.  

READ MORE: How excited should Maple Leafs fans be about Andreas Johnson?

NEXT SEASON   

It is likely that Johnson will be staying in North America for the 2016-17 season. Johnson does not have much left to prove overseas; 44 points in 52 SHL games was not only impressive but was good enough to leave Johnson ranked 6th overall in league scoring. I believe that Johnson’s departure from Sweden after his fantastic SHL season signified an end to his career in Sweden.  

I also believe that Johnson is developed enough to potentially steal a roster spot on the Leafs right out of training camp. Though he does have a chance of making the Leafs, Johnson may also benefit from a few AHL games at the beginning of the season.  2 career AHL playoff games certainly did not give him enough time to adjust to the North American style of hockey.  Management may see some benefit to starting Johnson in the AHL in a first or second line role.  

CLOSING THOUGHTS  

The Leafs have a bright future ahead.  With young talent constantly coming out of the woodworks, fans have plenty of things to look forward to.   The Leafs 2013 draft class was not good, to say the least.  With their first 3 picks, the Leafs selected Freddie Gauthier, Carter Verhaeghe and Fabrice Herzog. Verhage was traded away last season, and neither Gauthier or Herzog cracked our top 20/honourable mentions this year.  Ouch. Bibeau was also selected in the 2013 draft, which helps distract from the first 3 picks.  Johnson is the only potential home-run Leafs pick from that draft class, and he was selected in the seventh round!  

Johnson was a low-risk pick at the time, considering the position he was drafted at.  As the excitement surrounding him increased, the risk associated with the decisions being made involving him increased as well.  Was developing Johnson overseas the correct decision? What exactly will Johnson turn out to be, a first line winger or a second line forward?  These are all questions that Leafs management will hope to have answered by the end of next season. 

I look forward to seeing Johnson in the NHL.  I believe that his style of play will translate nicely onto North American ice, and though he will need a bit of an adjustment period, Johnson will thrive in the NHL.  His style of play is suited for a first/second line role, and it will be interesting to see where he is placed under Babcock. 

I’m going to leave you with one final thought; imagine a Johnson-Matthews/Nylander-Marner line.  

You’re welcome.  

THE RANKINGS SO FAR  

  • magesticRAGE

    Great read. Wow, didn’t know the talent this man possesses. Looking at the highlights, should be a shoe in for a position on the 1st or 2nd line. Lets not belabour the fact that this man belongs with the leafs this year and not the marlies. That head shot from Kelly was ridicules, he should have be banned from hockey. No wonder European hockey players have trouble adjusting to hockey in NA as there’s no penalty for such brutally. Wakeup NHL!

  • AnthonyV

    “Without further adieu, ranked at number seven, here is our prospect profile on Andreas Johnson.”

    I’m glad you didn’t say goodbye before you got to the meat of the article.

  • magesticRAGE

    Andreas Johnson is another prospect that I really like.

    I just hope he is ok and that wasn’t a carrer end hit like Marc Savard.

    I think a season on the Marlies to get used to the North American game would be best for him. If healthy, he can always come up to the Leafs next year.

  • magesticRAGE

    Jesse you asked a question but never provided the answer?

    “When you think of Swedish superstar forwards drafted in the seventh round, who exactly comes to mind? No, I’m not talking about Henrik Zetterberg or Daniel Alfredsson”.

    So what is the answer?

  • magesticRAGE

    i’m drooling at marner passing johnson the puck on the pp for a one time stamkos slapper from the dot. my oh my!!! that 2013 draft still pisses me off. gauthier is terrible! we could have had shea theodore ugh stupid nonis!!

  • magesticRAGE

    What I like the best about Johnson, is hot hockey sense and puck control. They are elite, and for the brief time he had with Nylander, gold was forming. He needs an intelligent centerman to really flourish in the NHL, but he’ll has a good career regardless. I love his one-timer from the dots, quick and accurate!

  • Stan Smith

    There are many in my opinion that are ahead of Johnson and I don’t feel he should be ranked this high. You have Soshnikov and Hyman that have proven themselves at the NHL level. Skill alone is not a recipe for success at the NHL.

    Lets see how he does with one full year in the AHL. That to me will be, a clear indication of his potential.

    • AnthonyV

      I would certainly put Johnson ahead of Soshnikov and Hyman, two players I really like and think will be NHL players.

      You could argue the SHL is just as good as the AHL, behind the NHL and KHL. The fact Johnson increasingly improved and put up very respectable totals in that league tells me he will be much better than Hyman (3rd liner at best) and Soshnikov (middle 6 but realistically 3rd) when you look at their present career production.

      • magesticRAGE

        Most people here havn’t seen this guy play a game and are basing their analytics of the player on vids. I can see from vids he has skill, but at 5’10” the deck is stacked against him. Generally smaller forwards have to work extra hard to make the NHL. This means he has to have character, drive and heart. A video isn’t going to tell me that.

        Take Mitch Marner. I’ve see him play about 25 times. Based on what I’ve seen, I can honestly say he’ll make the NHL. I’ve seen when the team is down 2 to 3 goals, he becomes a leader and can put the team on his back. I’ve seen plays I never knew were coming and before I knew it the puck is in the net. I can go on and on but you get the picture.

        Saying Johnson is better than Sosh or Hymen has no foundation and you can’t prove it. I’ve see their character, I haven’t seen Johnsons.

        Will Johnson be better… maybe, I don’t know. I do know I will be able to gage him better once he plays for the Marlies.

        • Kanuunankuula

          Ceiling vs. floor. Johnson has a way higher ceiling than Hyman (of whom I’m not that high on) and Sosh (who have a higher floor). They have a higher chance of being NHLers, but not a high end ones. Johnsson has real 2rd line upside, and therefore, at least to me, a bigger value.

  • Stan Smith

    While Johnson may have the potential to steal a roster spot out of camp, with the Leafs being in a position of having to find room for prospects on the big team I am pretty confident in saying Johnson is destined for the AHL.

    Having said that, anyone worried the the Marlies would be losing too much talent to the Leafs this season, can rest easy. The team might be just as good, if not better this year
    .

  • magesticRAGE

    No matter how talented he appears from this highlight reel, he MUST do enough time with the Marlies (just across town) to get used to the smaller ice and the North American style.

    Plenty of time to bring him up sometime this seasons and see how he fares.

    Still, he looks as though he has plenty of potential.

  • Kanuunankuula

    Saying he will make the Leafs out of camp seems rather pie in the sky I feel. It also goes against what the Leafs have been saying all along about bringing along their prospects slowly and doing things “the right way”. If they didn’t play Nylander till 3/4 of the season was over, no way Johnson makes the team out of training camp. Best scenario for him? … cut his teeth in the AHL and then get called up after the trade deadline if his play warrants it.

    And as others have asked, what’s his current health status? As usual, the Leafs are mum on this … I guess we will all have to wait till the rookie camp and tournament for news on his status.