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Maple Leafs at Lightning 02/25/20 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark | https://twitter.com/oddsshark)

There are diverging trends with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning as the NHL’s two highest-scoring teams square off on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs are +165 away underdogs while the Lightning are -190 home favorites with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. 

The Maple Leafs are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road underdog with the total finishing OVER seven times at betting sites, and they are also 3-10 in their last 13 games as an away underdog of +150 or more. The Lightning are 16-4 in their last 20 home games when they went deeper than -175 in minus money, with the total finishing OVER 14 times. Tampa Bay is also 7-2 in the last nine matchups against Toronto.

Maple Leafs at Lightning | OddsShark Matchup Report

Both teams’ most recent action was last Saturday. Toronto is 11-4-1 this season with two days between games, while Tampa Bay is 4-3-1 with that amount of rest.

The Maple Leafs hold down a playoff spot with a 32-23-8 record but are 1-6 as a road underdog. Core forwards such as Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander should have something to prove after being benched in the final minutes of Saturday’s 6-3 home defeat against the Carolina Hurricanes, but Toronto is having issues converting strong shot metrics – they have the NHL’s sixth-best five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (52.3 percent) – into success. The Maple Leafs are second in goals scored (3.48 per game) and 27th in goals against (3.27). On special teams, the power play is ranked third (23.8 percent) but the penalty killing unit is ranked 26th (76.1).

Frederik Andersen has a 25-13-6 record with a 2.98 goals-against average and .906 save percentage. Andersen is having a rough February, though, with a 3.80 GAA and .873 save percentage in six games this month.

The Lightning are 40-17-5 despite having lost their past two games. Centers Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli and Tyler Johnson lead arguably the league’s deepest attack as Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the 31-team NHL in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (52.4 percent). Tampa Bay’s defensive depth could be compromised as Erik Cernak (upper body) was injured Saturday and could join fellow defensemen Ryan McDonagh (lower body) and Jan Rutta (lower body) in the press box. The Lightning are first in goals scored (3.53 per game) and ninth in goals against (2.76). On special teams, the power play is ranked fourth (23.7 percent) and the penalty killing unit is ranked seventh (82.6).

Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 32-11-3 record with a 2.58 goals-against average and .916 save percentage on the season. Vasilevskiy has a 2.72 GAA and .913 save percentage in 11 games since the all-star break.

The Maple Leafs visit another division rival, the Florida Panthers, on Thursday, before hosting the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday.

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