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Photo Credit: © Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Lightning at Maple Leafs 03/10/20 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

Due to their inconsistency, the Toronto Maple Leafs are underdogs at home for the first time all season against a potential playoff opponent who is dominant in divisional games. The Maple Leafs are a -105 home underdog while the Tampa Bay Lightning are a -115 away favourite with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Tuesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

It’s the first time Toronto has been an underdog at home since April 2, 2019, according to the OddsShark NHL Database. The Maple Leafs are 3-8 in their last 11 games against the Lightning, with the total going OVER in six of their nine most recent matchups. The Maple Leafs are 12-8 in their last 20 home games against the Atlantic Division with the total going OVER 14 times, but the Lightning are 16-4 in their last 20 divisional away games with the OVER hitting 12 times.

Lightning at Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Lightning are 43-20-6 and should be smarting after a 5-4 defeat on Sunday against the dead-last Detroit Red Wings, which was their third consecutive loss as an away favourite at betting sites. Star defenseman Victor Hedman (lower-body injury) is questionable to play on Tuesday, but Tampa Bay has re-integrated Ryan McDonagh into a defence corps that has helped them rank fifth out of the 31 NHL teams in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (52.3 percent). Thanks to forwards such as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, the Lightning lead the NHL in goal scoring (3.51 per game) while ranking ninth in goals against (2.78). Tampa Bay has the fifth-ranked power play (23.7 percent) and ranks 12th in penalty killing (81.9).

Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Vezina Trophy candidate, has a 35-13-3 record with a 2.57 goals-against average and .917 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs, who are 35-25-9 after a winless three-game California road trip, could have a new look up front and on the back end. Toronto, which is sixth in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (52.0 percent), had No. 1 centre Auston Matthews working with wings Zach Hyman and William Nylander at practice on Monday, while John Tavares was flanked by Kasperi Kapanen and Mitchell Marner. First-pairing defenseman Morgan Rielly might also return after missing two months with a broken foot. Toronto is fourth in goal scoring (3.41 per game) but 27th in goals against (3.20). The Maple Leafs’ power play is ranked seventh (22.6) and their penalty killing unit is 23rd (77.3).

Frederik Andersen, who has a 28-13-7 record with a 2.89 goals-against average and .908 save percentage, will start in goal. Andersen has a 1.96 GAA and .929 save percentage in his last four starts.

The Maple Leafs host the Nashville Predators on Thursday and visit the Boston Bruins on Saturday.

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