by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs could go into a high-scoring matchup of two top-five NHL offences without No. 1 centre Auston Matthews and No. 1 goalie Frederik Andersen – which could lead to them being an underdog for the first time all season. The Maple Leafs will face the host Edmonton Oilers in a game that is a -110 pick’em with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Maple Leafs are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog at sports betting sites with the total going OVER six of the last eight times. Edmonton is 5-1 in its last six home games and the total has gone OVER over in seven of the Oilers’ last 11 games at home.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers | OddsShark Matchup Report
Toronto is 3-2-1 against Edmonton under coach Sheldon Keefe, with an average total of 6.5 goals in the six matchups. Toronto’s results against the Oilers have not come easily. The Maple Leafs have outscored the Oilers 12-9 in the five-on-five phase while being on the short end in shots-for percentage (46.5), expected goals-for percentage (42.9) and high-danger chances share (41.7), according to Natural Stat Trick.
The Maple Leafs’ 15-4-2 record includes a 6-2 record on the road, but that was with the full services of Matthews (hand soreness), who is listed as day-to-day. The rejigged John Tavares-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner and Alex Kerfoot-Alexander Barabanov-William Nylander lines would face the challenge of stepping up to replace Matthews’ production. Barabonov’s promotion comes after a game on Wednesday where MoneyPuck rated him third on Toronto in expected goals (all situations) in spite of having the least ice time of any skater.
While it is true the Maple Leafs have been shut out at even strength in their last two games, their xGF% was over 60 percent both times. Defenseman Jake Muzzin (face) is projected to return to the lineup.
Toronto is 16th in the 31-team NHL in their share of shots for (49.5 percent), as well as 11th in both xGF% (51.6) and high-danger chances share (52.1). The Maple Leafs are fourth in goal scoring (3.52 per game) and eighth in goals against (2.62), while boasting a fourth-ranked power play (31.3 percent) and 17th-ranked penalty killing unit (79.4).
Jack Campbell, who is 2-0-0 with a 2.00 goals-against average and .923 save percentage in his only two starts this season, is projected to start for the first time since sustaining a lower-body injury on Jan. 24. Campbell has faced the Oilers only once in his career. Andersen (lower body) practiced Friday and has travelled with Toronto.
The Oilers, who are 14-8-0, are coming off a three-day layoff. The Connor McDavid-led Oilers are 9-10-4 in home games with two or more days of rest since the start of the 2018-19 season. That said, Edmonton is 8-1 in its last nine games thanks in huge part to a potent top-six forward corps in the form of the McDavid-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Jesse Puljujarvi and Leon Draisaitl-Dominik Kahun-Kailer Yamomoto lines. Puljujarvi had the highest expected goals of any Oilers non-scorer in their last outing.
Edmonton allows high-danger chances at the sixth-worst rate in the NHL, but is one of only two teams in the bottom 10 of that category that has a share of over 50 percent.
Edmonton is 26th in the NHL in share of shots for (47.7 percent), as well as 18th in xGF% (50.0) and 16th in high-danger chances share (50.5). The Oilers are first in goal scoring (3.59 per game) and 22nd in goals against (2.95), while boasting a seventh-ranked power play (27.2 percent) and 19th-ranked penalty killing unit (78.6).
Mike Smith, who is 6-0-0 with a 1.73 GAA and .944 save percentage, is Edmonton’s projected starter in goal. Smith is 9-3-3 with a 2.35 GAA and .924 save percentage in 15 career games against Toronto.