by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ offence is strong enough to override the Connor Hellebuyck effect, which puts them closer to the safe selection range as a chalk pick. The Maple Leafs are -180 favourites and the Winnipeg Jets are +160 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Toronto, which faces the Ottawa Senators on Sunday, is 13-7 in its last 20 games when it is also playing the next day, and the OVER has hit in 11 of those matchups at online betting sites. The Maple Leafs are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Jets, with six OVERs. However, while the Maple Leafs are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a -160 to -210 favourite on the moneyline, the Jets are a tough out on the road. Winnipeg is 6-6 over 12 recent matchups as a +150 to +175 away underdog, with the OVER hitting seven times.
Jets vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
Toronto leads the season series 2-1. The Maple Leafs have been outscored 6-5 in the five-on-five phase, but hold clear edges in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (65.0), scoring-changes percentage (68.8) and high-danger chances share (76.3), per Natural Stat Trick. The Jets’ power play is one-for-eight while the Maple Leafs’ power play is two-for-five. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Jets, who are 16-8-2, have earned three points already in this three-game series in spite of the Mark Scheifele-Paul Stastny-Blake Wheeler first line failing to get off offensively, with an xGF% under 30 percent. Neither the Scheifele line nor the Pierre-Luc Dubois-Kyle Connor-Nikolaj Ehlers line needs a high volume of opportunities, though, since the Jets score on high-danger shots at the second-highest rate in the 31-team NHL. That is a big reason why the Jets are defying many advanced metrics. Dubois and center Adam Lowry were the Jets’ most offensively active non-scorers in their last outing.
Winnipeg ranks 24th in the NHL in shots-for percentage (47.7), 30th in xGF% (45.0) and 31st in high-danger chances share (41.1). The Jets are seventh in goal scoring (3.32 per game) and 13th in goals against (2.84). Their power play ranks 12th (24.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 22nd (76.2).
Hellebuyck has saved 2.47 goals above expected through the first two games this week against Toronto, according to MoneyPuck. Overall, Hellebuyck has a 12-7-2 record with a 2.81 goals-against average and .911 save percentage
The Maple Leafs, who are 19-7-2, have had an xGF% above 60 percent in four of their last five games, which could mean a breakout scoring night is just a matter of when. In-game line shuffling on Thursday that involved reuniting the Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitchell Marner line and forming a John Tavares-Joe Thornton-William Nylander second line. Hyman was second in expected goals in that contest but did not score. Another positive for Toronto in Thursday’s matchup was that ended a three-game streak of allowing a power-play goal.
Toronto ranks 10th in shots-for percentage (51.3), sixth in xGF% (53.8) and fifth in high-danger chances share (54.8). The Maple Leafs are second in goal scoring (3.44 per game) and seventh in goals against (2.48). Their power play ranks first (31.7 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 21st (76.6).
Frederik Anderson, who has saved 2.41 goals fewer than expected in the last two games, will likely start in goal again. Andersen is 13-5-2 with a 2.77 GAA and .902 save percentage this season, and has only one career regulation loss against the Jets.