by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to take out some frustrations on the NHL’s most porous team, but will have to disprove some troublesome moneyline trends. The Maple Leafs are -235 away favourites and the Ottawa Senators are +195 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last eight games as a favourite against Ottawa; however, they are just 12-7 in their last 19 games overall as a favourite of -200 or more, with the OVER hitting 11 times at sports betting sites. The Senators are 3-6 in their last nine home games as an underdog of +175 or more. Toronto, which is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 5-2 defeat against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, is 3-5 in its last eight games when it played the previous day. Ottawa, which hosts the Vancouver Canucks on Monday, is 4-9 in its last 13 games when it also had a game the next day, with the OVER hitting nine times.
Maple Leafs vs Senators | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs are 3-1-1 in the season series with the Senators. They have outscored Ottawa 14-12 in five-on-five play with edges in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (54.1), scoring-changes percentage (52.8) and high-danger chances share (54.4), per Natural Stat Trick. On power plays, the Maple Leafs are 6-for-17 and the Senators are 1-for-18. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Maple Leafs are 19-8-2, but have not won in regulation time in their last five games. The Auston Matthews-Zach Hyman-Mitch Marner first line is coming off a poor outing where their collective xGF% was only 26.9, but Matthews has six goals and 10 assists in his last five games against Ottawa. The members of the John Tavares-Joe Thornton-William Nylander line seem like better value plays than Matthews in anytime scorer props. Nylander and Tavares were 1-2 in expected goals among Toronto forwards in Saturday’s game.
Toronto ranks 11th in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (50.9), eighth in xGF% (53.2) and ninth in high-danger chances share (53.3). The Maple Leafs are third in goal scoring (3.41 per game) and eighth in goals against (2.59). Their power play ranks second (30.2 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 21st (75.9).
Michael Hutchinson, who is 3-2-0 with a 2.03 goals-against average and .934 save percentage, is the likely goaltender. Frederik Andersen has started six games in the last 11 days. Hutchinson has furnished adequate backup goaltending this season.
The Senators, who are 9-20-1, are winless in regulation time in their last six games and have earned the edge in xGF% only once over this stretch. Evgenii Dadonov, Tim Stützle and Nick Paul were Ottawa’s most active attackers during a 6-2 defeat at Edmonton last Friday, where it used over 40 line combinations and did not produce a five-on-five goal from a forward. Ottawa is 19-13-1 in its last 33 home games with one day of rest, but may be without two-way center Colin White (leg).
Ottawa ranks 24th in shots-for percentage (48.0), 22nd in xGF% (46.9) and 21st in high-danger chances share (47.5). The Senators are 25th in goal scoring (2.57 per game) and 31st in goals against (4.03). Their power play (15.0 percent) and their penalty killing (73.7) each rank 26th.
Matt Murray is 7-12-1 with a 3.84 GAA and .880 save percentage. Murray is also ranked 45th of 47th qualified goalies in save percentage above expected.