by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs are counting on backup goalie Jack Campbell, who has played once in the last six weeks, to help buck moneyline-trend troubles and the appearance that opponents have figured out how to negate their shooting talent. The Maple Leafs are -155 favourites and the Calgary Flames are +135 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Flames edged the Maple Leafs 4-3 on Friday. Toronto is 3-6 in its last nine games when it played the previous day. Calgary is 6-4 in its last 10 games on no rest, but has lost its last three in that scenario. The Maple Leafs are 6-9 in their last 15 games as a home favourite of -140 to -165 at online sports betting sites. The Flames are 6-9 in their last 15 games as an away underdog of +125 to +145. The total has gone OVER in Toronto’s last four home games, but it has gone UNDER in four of Calgary’s last six games as a road underdog.
Flames vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs are ahead 3-2 in the season series (with one overtime win), and the teams are split 8-8 in five-on-five goals. Toronto grades out ahead in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (55.4), scoring-chance percentage (54.1) and high-danger chances share (59.0), per Natural Stat Trick. The Flames power play is five-for-18 and the Maple Leafs power play is two-for-20. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Flames are 15-13-3 but they are playing their fourth game in six nights. The top-six forward corps, consisting of the Elias Lindholm-Matthew Tkachuk-Dillon Dube and Sean Monahan-Johnny Gaudreau-Brett Ritchie lines, generated nearly no offensive activity on Friday as each had an xGF% below 10 percent, according to MoneyPuck. Ultimately, Calgary found a way to win on Friday, but none of its four goals was off a high-danger chance and Toronto also had a season-worst .770 five-on-five save percentage.
In the last 30 days, Calgary ranks 10th in the 31-team NHL in shots-for percentage (52.4), 12th in xGF% (52.2) and 14th in high-danger chances share (51.1). Over this span, the Flames are 17th in goal scoring (2.93 per game) and 24th in goals against (3.36). They have the 15th-best power play (21.7 percent) and rank 16th in penalty killing (77.8).
Jacob Markstrom, who is 12-8-2 with a 2.91 goals-against average and .903 save percentage, saved 0.62 goals above average on Friday, according to MoneyPuck. He has made every start since Darryl Sutter became Calgary’s coach on March 7. Backup David Rittich is 3-5-1 with a 2.93 GAA and .904 save percentage but has a 3-1-1 / 2.16 / .937 stat line over five career games against Toronto.
The Maple Leafs, who are 19-10-2, have not won in regulation during their last seven games. The team’s xGF% has been above 60 percent in four of those games, which suggests their problem does not reside in the Auston Matthews-Joe Thornton-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander lines. The Maple Leafs do seem to have issues with teams who have physical depth lines, which makes a winger such as Calgary’s Milan Lucic a value play in anytime scorer props. Toronto’s special teams have been struggling during the seven-game skid, going one-for-13 on the power play and allowing eight goals on 17 penalty-kill attempts.
Since Feb. 20, Toronto ranks 12th in shots-for percentage (51.9), third in xGF% (55.3) and sixth in high-danger chances share (54.2).The Maple Leafs are 16th in both goal scoring (2.92 per game) and goals against (2.69) over the past 30 days, while their power play ranks 18th (21.1 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 30th (65.5).
Campbell, who is 3-0-0 with a 1.33 goals-against average and .951 save percentage but has played in only one game in the last 45 days as the result of a lower-body injury, is confirmed as Toronto’s starting goalie. Campbell held Calgary to two goals in a win on Jan. 24.