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Photo Credit: © Terrence Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs 04/07/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

The Toronto Maple Leafs have their finishing touch back and also have a healthier lineup than the Montreal Canadiens, who have gone toe-to-toe with them all season. The Maple Leafs are -145 home favourites and the Canadiens are +125 underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

Toronto is 5-2 in its last seven home games against Montreal, with three of the last four finishing OVER at online sports betting sites. The Maple Leafs are, however, 4-5 this season as a home favourite of -130 to -160 with the total going UNDER five times. The Canadiens, who have only been an underdog on the road twice this season, are 3-8 in their last 11 away games with the total going UNDER six times. Montreal, which is slated to host the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday, is 3-5 in its last eight games when it also had to play the following day.

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Canadiens vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Maple Leafs lead the season series 3-1-0, but have been outscored 9-6 in the five-on-five phase. Toronto has been on the short end of expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (47.6), scoring-chances share (47.8) and high-danger chances (44.8), per Natural Stat Trick. The Canadiens are two-for-six on the power play and the Maple Leafs are five-for-11. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Canadiens, who are 17-9-9, will be missing multiple regulars, including right wing Brendan Gallagher (thumb), defenseman Ben Chiarot (hand) and goalie Carey Price (lower-body injury). Montreal’s stock in trade is its depth. The Nick Suzuki-Josh Anderson-Corey Perry and Eric Staal-Jonathan Drouin-Tyler Toffoli lines (centers listed first) were productive during a 3-2 overtime win against the strong Edmonton Oilers on Monday. Artturi Lehkonen might be a value play in anytime scorer props since his offensive role will presumably expand in Gallagher’s absence.  Montreal is 7-2-5 this season in away games with one day of rest.

Since March 8, Montreal ranks third in the 31-team NHL in xGF% (57.2), second in scoring-chance share (58.4) and fourth in high-danger chances share (57.1). In this span, the Canadiens are 12th in goals per game (2.92) and eighth in goals against (2.42). Their power play is 11th (20.6 percent) and their penalty killing is 27th (74.2).

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Jake Allen, who has a 5-3-4 record with a 2.23 goals-against average and .922 save percentage, is likely to start in goal. Allen has yet to face Toronto this season, but was 4-2-0 with a 2.24 GAA and .921 save percentage against the Maple Leafs during his St. Louis Blues tenure.

The Maple Leafs are 26-10-3, including a 7-1-1 record across their last nine starts. During a 5-3 road win against the Calgary Flames on Monday, Toronto was the most opportunistic offensively it had been in a few weeks, as centers Auston Matthews (with two goals) and John Tavares both scored to help Toronto win even though its 51.4 five-on-five xGF% was its lowest in nine games. Bettors will have to decide if they trust Toronto to keep up that earned puck luck or if they might fall into a regression. Right wing Ilya Mikheyev was not so lucky on Monday with a five-shot, no-goals game. Toronto broke an 11-game power-play goal drought in that contest, which might carry over into a matchup with Montreal, whose penalty killing has been a slump of its own. The Maple Leafs are 8-3-2 in home games with a single day of rest.

Toronto ranks second in xGF% (59.2) and third in both scoring-chances share (58.8) and high-danger chances share (62.0) over the last 30 days. In that time, the Maple Leafs are 10th in goals per game (3.00 per game) and 17th in goals against (2.69). Their power play is 30th (6.1 percent) and their penalty killing is 20th (80.0).

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Jack Campbell, who is 9-0-0 with a 1.53 GAA and a .944 save percentage, is projected to get the goaltending start. It would be Campbell’s first start against Montreal since Feb. 8, 2020, when he made 28 saves in a 2-1 overtime loss.

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