by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The form and the trends are with the Toronto Maple Leafs, although the matchup has greater incentive for the reeling Montreal Canadiens. The Maple Leafs are -135 away favourites and the host Canadiens are +115 underdogs with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
Toronto is 5-3 in its last eight away games against Montreal, with the OVER hitting five times at sports betting sites. The Maple Leafs, who will host the Calgary Flames on Tuesday, are 12-6 when they are playing the first of back-to-back games with the OVER hitting 10 times. The Maple Leafs are 7-4 in their last 11 games as an away favourite of -125 to -150 with the OVER hitting seven times. The Canadiens are 6-14 in their last 20 games as a home underdog, with the OVER hitting 12 times.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs lead the season series 4-1-0. Montreal has a 10-9 edge in five-on-five goals, but Toronto, per Natural Stat Trick, leads in expected-goals percentage, or xGF% (51.1), scoring-chances share (50.3) and high-danger chances share (51.4). The Maple Leafs are five-for-13 on the power play and the Canadiens are two-for-eight. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play)
The Maple Leafs, who are 28-10-3, have been playing at peak capacity over their last 10 games, going 9-0-1 with only two performances where their five-on-five xGF% was under 58.0. Toronto might seem overdue for an off night – and might have got away with one during a 6-5 home win against the last-place Ottawa Senators on Saturday – but it is also 10-2-1 this season in road games with one day of rest. Both the Auston Matthews-Alex Galchenyuk-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-Ilya Mikheyev-Zach Hyman lines (listed center-left-right) were effective against Ottawa. Depth winger Wayne Simmonds had four shots but no points the last time out, and might be a value play in anytime scorer props.
Since March 12, Toronto is second in the 31-team NHL in xGF% (59.4), scoring-chance share (57.6) and high-danger chances share (61.9). The Maple Leafs are seventh in goals per game (3.15) and 14th in goals against (2.69) during this span, while their power play ranks 31th (3.0 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 21st (80.0).
Jack Campbell, who is 11-0-0 with an 1.88 goals-against average and .934 save percentage, allowed 1.59 goals more than expected on Saturday, according to MoneyPuck. Michael Hutchinson, who is 4-2-1 with a 2.42 GAA and .919 save percentage, took the first start the last time Toronto had back-to-back games, but he is also 0-3-1 with a 5.39 GAA and .866 save percentage in four career games against Montreal.
The Canadiens, who are 17-12-9, seem to be at a low point. They have been outscored 13-7 in the five-on-five phase during their five-game losing streak. The Phillip Danault-Tomas Tatar-Jesperi Kotkaniemi trio was Montreal’s only forward line with a positive xGF% during a 5-0 home defeat against the Winnipeg Jets last Saturday. The Canadiens, who are 3-4-2 in their last nine home games with one day of rest, have not earned a win since goalie Carey Price (lower-body injury) and right wing Brendan Gallagher (broken thumb) went down. Center Eric Staal and left wing Jonathan Drouin have been struggling to develop chemistry, but they had moments of effectiveness during Montreal’s 3-2 defeat against Toronto on April 7.
Montreal is eighth in xGF% (52.9), sixth in scoring-chance share (54.0) and 13th in high-danger chances share (51.2) over the past 30 days. During this span, the Canadiens are 18th in goals per game (2.67) and 23rd in goals against (3.08). Their power play ranks 23rd (15.6) and their penalty killing ranks 29th (71.9).
Jake Allen, who is 5-6-4 with a 2.53 GAA and .912 save percentage, will likely make another start in goal.