by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The odds fall in that range that usually show the Toronto Maple Leafs are up for a challenge, although there is always the caveat that it is tough to beat a good NHL team twice in a row. The Maple Leafs are -130 away favorites (wager $130 to win $100) and the Winnipeg Jets are +110 home underdogs (wager $100 to win $110) with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The away team is 7-2 in the teams’ last nine matchups. Toronto is 6-0 in its last six away games against Winnipeg, and the total has gone OVER in nine of the teams’ last 11 matchups at the Bell MTS Centre at online sports betting sites. The Maple Leafs are 10-3 in their last 13 games as an away favorite of -115 to -175 on the odds, with seven matchups finishing OVER and two ending in a push at sportsbooks. The Jets are 7-6 in their 13 games as a home underdog with the total going UNDER seven times, but they have lost the last four games when they were in plus money on home ice.
Maple Leafs vs Jets | OddsShark Matchup Report
The Maple Leafs are 5-3 (with two overtime wins) against the Jets this season, but Winnipeg has a 16-14 edge in five-on-five goals. Toronto, per Natural Stat Trick, has the higher expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (59.6), with similar edges in their share of scoring chances (57.9) and high-danger chances (61.5) so far in the season series. Head-to-head, Toronto’s power play is two-for-20 and Winnipeg’s is six-for-22. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)
The Maple Leafs, who are 29-13-5, broke a five-game losing streak by defeating the Jets 5-3 on Thursday. The Auston Matthews-Nick Foligno-Mitch Marner first line (listed center-left-right) had a strong debut, posting a collective 58.9 xGF% in the five-on-five phase while combining for seven points. Toronto could stand to see more chemistry from the rest of their forward corps, as both of the John Tavares-Alex Galchenyuk-William Nylander and Alex Kerfoot-Pierre Engvall-Wayne Simmonds lines struggled. Toronto is 11-4-1 in away games with one day of rest and has averaged 3.44 goals in those matchups, higher than an average of 3.19 in all other games.
Since March 25, Toronto ranks second in the NHL in xGF% (60.3) but is 11th in goals-for percentage, or GF% (55.7). The Maple Leafs are ninth in goals per game (3.13) and 22nd in goals against (3.07). Their power play ranks 29th (8.1 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 26th (75.9).
Jack Campbell, who is 12-2-1 with a 2.30 goals-against average and .919 save percentage, gave Toronto slightly below average goaltending in Thursday’s win. MoneyPuck said Campbell prevented 0.1 goals fewer than expected.
The Jets, who are 27-16-3, need a regulation win to stay within four points of North Division-leading Toronto. Winnipeg had a rare game where it was out-goaltended on Thursday, and both the Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois-Nikolaj Ehlers-Paul Stastny lines were on the plus side in five-on-five xGF%. Dubois and Stastny were each stymied in that outing, failing to score despite having four shots on goal. One concern about the Jets’ potential to bounce back is the status of No. 3 center Adam Lowry, who left the game Thursday after a blow to his head. Toronto is also a high-tempo team and Winnipeg’s goal output is lower than its season average in home games with one day of rest. They are 6-5-2 this season in such matchups and score 2.69 goals per game, compared to 3.39 the rest of the time.
Winnipeg ranks 21st in xGF% (48.7) but sixth in GF% (58.5) during the past 30 days. Over this span, the Jets are 17th in goals per game (2.92) and seventh in goals against (2.46). Their power play ranks 10th (23.3 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 14th (82.2).
Connor Hellebuyck is 21-12-3 with a 2.57 GAA and .917 save percentage after getting a quick hook on Thursday after allowing three goals on Toronto’s first six shots of the game. It was only the second time this season Hellebuyck has been replaced mid-game, and he won his next start after his previous early exit.