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Photo Credit: © Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens 05/03/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post

The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to be in a groove as they make their last regular-season visit to the home rink of their potential playoff opponent. The Maple Leafs are -145 away favorites and the Montreal Canadiens are +125 home underdogs with a 5.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Monday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

Toronto is 6-4 in its last 10 away games against Montreal, and four of the last five visits have either finished UNDER or in a PUSH. The total has also gone UNDER at online sports betting sites in four of the last five Toronto games at Montreal with a closing total of 5.5, although the most recent matchup was in November 2017.

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Maple Leafs vs Canadiens | OddsShark Matchup Report

The Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last eight away games as a -130 to -160 favorite, with the total going UNDER four times and finishing in a PUSH twice. The Canadiens are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home underdog, with a 4-4-2 split on the totals.

Toronto leads the season series 5-2, but has just a slight 14-13 edge in five-on-five goals. The run of play in the five-on-five phase has been very even, as evidenced by the Maple Leafs’ numbers at Natural Stat Trick in expected goals-for percentage, or xGF% (51.1), scoring-chances share (48.9) and high-danger chance share (51.6) against the Canadiens. The Maple Leafs are six-for-18 on the power play and the Canadiens are three-for-12. (All advanced stats are based on score- and venue-adjusted five-on-five play.)

The Maple Leafs, who are 33-13-5, are on a five-win streak where they have had a combined 59.7 xGF%. Center Auston Matthews has five goals in seven starts against Montreal this season, while center John Tavares and right wing Mitch Marner might be overdue since they only have two apiece while ranking 2-3 on the team in shots on goal. Toronto’s power play, where veterans Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza populate the second unit, has converted in three of the club’s seven games in Montreal. The Maple Leafs are 12-4-1 in away games with one day of rest, and average 3.47 goals in those games, above their season average of 3.35.

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Since April 3, Toronto ranks fourth in goals-for percentage, or GF% (61.3), and second in xGF% (58.7) among the 31 NHL teams. The Maple Leafs are fourth in goals per game (3.64) and 15th in goals against (2.86) during this span. Their power play ranks 26th (12.9 percent) and their penalty killing also ranks 26th (73.1).

Toronto will likely split goaltending starts over the course of this three-game series with Montreal. Jack Campbell, who is 15-2-1 with a 2.07 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, has allowed just three goals in as many starts.

The Canadiens, who are 23-18-9, had highly proficient nights from the Nick Suzuki-Tyler Toffoli-Joel Armia and Phillip Danault-Jesperi Kotkaniemi-Josh Anderson lines during wins against the Winnipeg Jets and Ottawa Senators on Friday and Saturday. Anderson, who had five shots on goal against Ottawa, and exciting rookie Cole Caufield are worthy of consideration in anytime scorer props. Montreal allowed 26 scoring chances in the Ottawa game, and the Canadiens are 3-4-0 following games where they allow 25-plus scoring chances. The Canadiens are 6-6-2 in home games with one day of rest, allowing an average of 3.00 goals, above their season average of 2.84.

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Montreal is 30th in GF% (37.1) and 18th in xGF% (47.9) over the past 30 days. Over this time, the Canadiens are 28th in goals per game (2.18) and 23rd in goals against (3.35). Their power play ranks 18th (17.4 percent) and their penalty killing ranks 19th (80.4).

Jake Allen, who is 10-10-4 with a 2.58 GAA and .909 save percentage, should start in goal after Cayden Primeau did the honors against Ottawa last Saturday. Allen has allowed at least three goals in four of his past five starts.

Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for analysis on this week’s top games. As well, the OddsShark Computer serves up daily NHL picks for bettors.

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