Welcome to Staturday, the column where we talk about stats on Saturday. Today, we’ll get into an overall look at last year’s team totals vs. what the 2021-22 roster did in 2020-21. Basically, we’re going to see if the Leafs should expect to have more or less of all of the basic counting stats. By doing so, we’ll see in what areas the 2021-22 roster should be better or worse than the 2020-21 roster.
I approached this same concept via the Goals Above Replacement model by Evolving Hockey in a previous Staturday column, so check that out here.
All of the stats below will be from Evolving Hockey, and will be at Even Strength, with no adjustments.

Last Year’s Leafs

Player
Season
Team
Position
GP
TOI
G
Points
iSF
iFF
iCF
ixG
Sh%
iBLK
GIVE
TAKE
iHF
iHA
iPEN±
FO±
Morgan Rielly
20-21
TOR
D
55
1078.95
4
21
74
109
160
3.61
5.41
54
64
18
60
132
-5
0
Tj Brodie
20-21
TOR
D
56
1053.38
1
11
40
62
96
1.58
2.5
75
45
19
28
99
0
0
Justin Holl
20-21
TOR
D
55
984.1
2
17
52
75
109
2.2
3.85
60
33
14
72
126
-1
0
Jake Muzzin
20-21
TOR
D
53
950.8
2
22
86
115
169
2.85
2.33
68
49
19
91
138
-5
0
Mitch Marner
20-21
TOR
C
55
904.07
17
47
108
143
195
11.6
15.74
34
53
42
19
45
-1
-1
Auston Matthews
20-21
TOR
C
52
889
30
49
167
225
260
18.11
17.96
40
42
40
56
57
7
34
John Tavares
20-21
TOR
C
56
831.3
12
33
119
155
196
12.8
10.08
27
49
30
44
75
9
62
William Nylander
20-21
TOR
C
51
697.93
11
27
100
137
167
11.37
11
15
33
29
12
61
1
2
Alex Kerfoot
20-21
TOR
C
56
674.1
6
18
59
77
100
6.41
10.17
28
25
14
38
115
3
-43
Ilya Mikheyev
20-21
TOR
R
54
659.82
7
14
88
120
146
8.24
7.95
23
25
12
49
55
0
1
Travis Dermott
20-21
TOR
D
51
645.53
2
5
36
53
81
1.35
5.56
34
25
4
41
76
-3
0
Zach Hyman
20-21
TOR
C
43
644.4
9
23
88
118
148
10.23
10.23
18
13
15
61
101
0
-11
Zach Bogosian
20-21
TOR
D
45
578.85
0
4
32
55
81
1.47
0
26
15
7
62
34
-11
0
Joe Thornton
20-21
TOR
C
44
510.57
4
13
31
41
47
2.56
12.9
10
27
11
31
26
0
5
Pierre Engvall
20-21
TOR
L
42
469.8
7
12
57
75
98
4.25
12.28
12
19
6
43
50
-4
-35
Jason Spezza
20-21
TOR
C
54
465.9
8
23
60
84
104
6.92
13.33
9
25
15
24
40
4
44
Wayne Simmonds
20-21
TOR
R
38
380.75
4
6
53
71
87
4.15
7.55
15
17
12
61
32
-1
0
Alex Galchenyuk
20-21
TOR
C
26
331.97
4
12
41
59
65
5.44
9.76
9
9
5
32
46
-2
0
Jimmy Vesey
20-21
TOR
L
30
297.48
5
7
30
43
51
3.19
16.67
8
4
4
23
21
1
-2
Travis Boyd
20-21
TOR
C
20
174.38
2
7
12
23
28
1.68
16.67
9
4
2
9
29
1
-8
Rasmus Sandin
20-21
TOR
D
9
114.52
0
4
7
7
10
0.24
0
7
2
2
11
18
1
0
Adam Brooks
20-21
TOR
C
11
110.38
2
3
8
8
12
0.71
25
2
3
4
14
20
1
-1
Alex Barabanov
20-21
TOR
L
13
109.13
0
1
11
15
17
1.16
0
5
8
4
5
16
0
0
Mikko Lehtonen
20-21
TOR
D
9
93.18
0
2
9
12
17
0.18
0
2
3
1
5
19
-2
0
Nick Foligno
20-21
TOR
L
7
87.92
0
3
7
8
9
0.34
0
2
3
1
23
6
-1
0
Ben Hutton
20-21
TOR
D
4
67.73
0
0
3
4
10
0.06
0
2
3
2
7
8
0
0
Nic Petan
20-21
TOR
C
7
66.02
0
1
8
13
14
0.76
0
2
2
0
6
12
0
0
Nicholas Robertson
20-21
TOR
L
6
50.35
0
1
8
12
16
0.63
0
2
1
1
2
9
0
0
TOTALS
139
386
1394
1919
2493
124.09
598
601
333
929
1466
-8
47
AVERAGES
8.50
LEAGUE AVERAGE
115
1357
1864
2464
108
8.45
599
412
291
1166
1166
0
0
We can see that the Leafs were above the league average in all of the expected categories: goals, shots, expected goals, shooting percentage, giveaways, and takeaways. They’re also below average in hits, and penalty differential,  which would have been expected. In no way do the stats above surprise.
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Let’s now compare these to the 2020-21 stats for the players who will compose the 2021-22 roster.

This Year’s Leafs

One important thing to note before we dig into this is that Ondřej Kaše is not shown below because he didn’t have enough ice time to meet the 50 minute cutoff. It’s impossible to predict exactly how Kaše will perform this coming year, but it’s obvious that he will add something to the totals/averages below. It also doesn’t include Josh Ho-Sang, who the Leafs have on PTO, and Brennan Mennell, for the same reasons, though their expected impact is much less than Kaše’s, if they even play for Toronto in the NHL.
Player
Season
Team
Position
GP
TOI
G
Points
iSF
iFF
iCF
ixG
Sh%
iBLK
GIVE
TAKE
iHF
iHA
iPEN±
FO±
Morgan Rielly
20-21
TOR
D
55
1078.95
4
21
74
109
160
3.61
5.41
54
64
18
60
132
-5
0
Tj Brodie
20-21
TOR
D
56
1053.38
1
11
40
62
96
1.58
2.5
75
45
19
28
99
0
0
Justin Holl
20-21
TOR
D
55
984.1
2
17
52
75
109
2.2
3.85
60
33
14
72
126
-1
0
Jake Muzzin
20-21
TOR
D
53
950.8
2
22
86
115
169
2.85
2.33
68
49
19
91
138
-5
0
Mitch Marner
20-21
TOR
C
55
904.07
17
47
108
143
195
11.6
15.74
34
53
42
19
45
-1
-1
Auston Matthews
20-21
TOR
C
52
889
30
49
167
225
260
18.11
17.96
40
42
40
56
57
7
34
John Tavares
20-21
TOR
C
56
831.3
12
33
119
155
196
12.8
10.08
27
49
30
44
75
9
62
William Nylander
20-21
TOR
C
51
697.93
11
27
100
137
167
11.37
11
15
33
29
12
61
1
2
Nick Ritchie
20-21
BOS
L
56
692.7
10
17
89
126
143
7.43
11.24
16
18
15
100
54
-5
-4
Alex Kerfoot
20-21
TOR
C
56
674.1
6
18
59
77
100
6.41
10.17
28
25
14
38
115
3
-43
David Kampf
20-21
CHI
C
56
671.95
1
10
52
68
88
4.95
1.92
12
8
24
40
76
2
75
Ilya Mikheyev
20-21
TOR
R
54
659.82
7
14
88
120
146
8.24
7.95
23
25
12
49
55
0
1
Travis Dermott
20-21
TOR
D
51
645.53
2
5
36
53
81
1.35
5.56
34
25
4
41
76
-3
0
Pierre Engvall
20-21
TOR
L
42
469.8
7
12
57
75
98
4.25
12.28
12
19
6
43
50
-4
-35
Jason Spezza
20-21
TOR
C
54
465.9
8
23
60
84
104
6.92
13.33
9
25
15
24
40
4
44
Wayne Simmonds
20-21
TOR
R
38
380.75
4
6
53
71
87
4.15
7.55
15
17
12
61
32
-1
0
Michael Bunting
20-21
ARI
L
21
296.8
7
10
32
42
54
3.82
21.88
1
4
8
28
26
-3
2
Michael Amadio
20-21
L.A
C
20
211.52
0
1
15
22
28
1.32
0
15
7
2
2
19
0
7
Alex Biega
20-21
DET
D
13
124.03
0
3
4
8
17
0.13
0
7
3
0
19
9
0
0
Rasmus Sandin
20-21
TOR
D
9
114.52
0
4
7
7
10
0.24
0
7
2
2
11
18
1
0
Adam Brooks
20-21
TOR
C
11
110.38
2
3
8
8
12
0.71
25
2
3
4
14
20
1
-1
Kurtis Gabriel
20-21
S.J
R
11
82.4
0
0
4
9
11
0.71
0
10
0
1
46
23
-4
0
Michael Amadio
20-21
OTT
C
5
61.07
0
1
5
6
7
0.54
0
1
0
1
6
9
-1
-3
Nicholas Robertson
20-21
TOR
L
6
50.35
0
1
8
12
16
0.63
0
2
1
1
2
9
0
0
TOTALS
133
355
1323
1809
2354
115.92
567
550
332
906
1364
-5
140
TOTALS (last year)
139
386
1394
1919
2493
124.09
598
601
333
929
1466
-8
47
Difference
-6
-21
-71
-110
-39
-8.17
-31
-51
-1
-23
-102
+3
+93
AVERAGES
8.37
AVERAGES (last year)
8.50
Difference
-0.13
So, as expected without one of their top-9 forwards, the Leafs take a bit of a drop off from last year. If you look at the differences, there’s a few categories where we can expect Kaše to make up the difference and more. In goals, shots, fenwick, and corsi, it won’t be surprising at all if Kaše eclipses the negative difference shown above.
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In shooting percentage, it would be very difficult for him to drag the team up by much, but he could easily get them to the same 8.5% they showed last year.
For blocks and hits, since Kaše isn’t much of a physical player, I wouldn’t expect him to close that gap.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the Leafs should expect to improve in the number of goals they score, the pucks they put on net, and their penalty differential and faceoff differential. They should expect to have a lower shooting percentage, a similar amount of expected goals, and less hits and shots blocked (not considering that they’ll play 82 games next year instead of 56).
Do we worry at this point? Certainly not. In more ice time for Michael Bunting, less ice time for David Kämpf, the effect of an at-least-somewhat-healthy Ondrej Kaše, I don’t think they will actually perform as bad as this tabulation shows. However, it’s interesting to note that there are some areas of potential concern, like shooting percentage, which will be something to watch as the season goes on.
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This analysis also ignores the changes in goal, where we expect that Petr Mrazek will have a positive impact in replacing Frederik Andersen.
In summation, it’s hard to say if this is really what to expect, but it seems that the Leafs will be similar to last year, with perhaps a slight improvement. Interestingly, this is the same conclusion that I came to when I looked at this through the Goals Above Replacement model, which I linked to above.