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<p>Seeing Toronto&rsquo;s penalty kill ranked dead last in the NHL isn&rsquo;t really a surprise at any point in the season.  In the last five years, the team&rsquo;s best finish was 27th overall and there were a pair of dead-last seasons in there.</p>
<p>Yet, there&rsquo;s reason to hope that this year&rsquo;s group can improve at least a little from their putrid start on the penalty kill.</p>
<p></p>
<p>The following chart shows the Leafs&rsquo; average number of shots against in an hour of 4-on-5 ice time, as well as their average save percentage in 4-on-5 situations since 2007-08 (<a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2011/team_data3.php?sort=49">all data from Behind the Net</a>):</p>
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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Season</th>
<th>4-on-5 SA/60</th>
<th>4-on-5 SV%</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>48.0</td>
<td>0.855</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008-09</td>
<td>53.7</td>
<td>0.824</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009-10</td>
<td>54.9</td>
<td>0.848</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010-11</td>
<td>47.8</td>
<td>0.835</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2007-11</strong></td>
<td><strong>51.1</strong></td>
<td><strong>0.841</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011-12</td>
<td>48.0</td>
<td>0.803</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>All those wretched penalty kills from 2007 on are summed up in the second last row.   On average, those versions of the Maple Leafs allowed a hair over 51 shots in an average hour of time while down a man, and had a save percentage of 0.841.  This year, the Leafs are averaging fewer shots against, but their save percentage is a miserable 0.803 in shorthanded situations.  Ergo, when that save percentage comes up the unit should be better.</p>
<p>But there&rsquo;s a wrinkle, a wrinkle explained expertly in the delightfully titled, &ldquo;<a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2011/11/3/2536351/shot-to-the-chart-but-whos-to-blame-you-give-goalies-a-bad-name">Shot to the Chart. But Who&rsquo;s To Blame? (You Give Goalies A Bad Name)</a>. &rdquo;</p>
<p><iframe loading="lazy" width="420" height="315" frameborder="0" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/KrZHPOeOxQQ" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></p>
<p>The whole piece is worth a read, but basically the data shows the following: <b>better goaltending impacts a penalty kill, but not nearly as much as a bad penalty kill drags down a goalie&rsquo;s numbers.</b></p>
<p>In other words, this isn&rsquo;t like an even-strength situation, where we can <i>almost always</i> expect a bad save percentage to regress to the mean.  For a bad penalty-killing group, a bad save percentage is par for the course.</p>
<p>The good news, though, is that no team has a save percentage as bad as this year&rsquo;s Leafs.  The worst teams the last four years have, in order, the following save percentages: 0.848, 0.824, 0.842 and 0.835.  Even assuming the Leafs equal the worst number from the last four years and post a 0.824 SV% in 4-on-5 situations, they would be two goals better so far this year and be on pace to finish 10 goals better over the season as a whole.</p>
<p>It&rsquo;s not a lot, but every little bit helps.  There&rsquo;s also a distinct possibility that this group of Maple Leafs doesn&rsquo;t post the worst penalty-killing save percentage  of the last four seasons, which would add up to more improvements.</p>

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